With bye weeks now beginning, we’re down to a 10-game slate in Week 6 — with three of those games providing totals in the 50s.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,500) Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (53.5 Total)
As mentioned in the introduction, there’s no single standout game this week. Rather, we have a few to choose from. Still, the best total by two points belongs to Bills/Raiders at 53.5. Unlike Rams/Cardinals, this one also features a reasonably tight spread. The other top game, Bears/Falcons, features some QB uncertainty that could knock it off the list.
From a DFS perspective, that makes Allen a tremendous play. I’m not sure there’s an NFL team more willing to rely on their QB to save the day than Buffalo. Allen leads all QBs in carries at 43, goal-line carries at seven, and rushing touchdowns at eight – no other QB has more than two. In fact, he leads all players in rushing touchdowns with eight and would be averaging just over 14 DraftKings points per game without throwing a single pass.
Allen has been somewhat mediocre as a thrower this season, as the Bills continue to struggle to provide him with an alpha wide receiver. Still, he’s averaging about 250 yards per game with seven touchdowns, which is nothing to sneeze at. With the Bills’ defense as bad as they are – 28th in points allowed – Buffalo will likely need to stay aggressive throughout this one, which means the ball in Allen’s hands.
With a median projection about four points clear of any other QB on the slate, Allen is an elite spend-up option. We’ve got enough value at receiver that it’s conceivable to get there in cash, and the biggest (only?) issue with playing him in tournaments is who to stack him with.
Value: Tyler Huntley ($4,700) Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns (41 Total)
The top value play this week is a bit uncertain. Matthew Stafford technically has the best Pts/Sal projection by a nose, but he’s fairly expensive and not necessarily in the spirit of what we mean by a “value” play. The next-best option is “Snoop” Huntley – so long as Lamar Jackson misses the game against the Browns.
Jackson missed practice again on Friday but is officially labeled “day to day” with various coachspeak platitudes about him “doing his best to get back out there” and similar low-information comments. His replacement would be Huntley, who threw for 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns while adding 20 yards and a score on the ground.
Huntley being stylistically similar to Jackson makes him a solid backup, as Baltimore can run a similar offense to the one they run with their starter. Huntley isn’t nearly as talented, but at $4,700, we don’t need him to be a Pro Bowler to work out for DFS. Cleveland isn’t a great matchup, as evidenced by the low total, but Huntley being responsible for a pair of touchdowns is probably fine for his price, at least in cash games.
Fortunately, this game is in the early window on Sunday, so we’ll have more clarity on Jackson’s status before having to make a decision. Assuming he’s out, Huntley is an interesting cash-game option for the roster flexibility he provides.
Quick Hits
Matthew Stafford ($6,400): As mentioned above, Stafford is actually the Pts/Sal leader this week, as he and the Rams are favored by 12.5 points over the Cardinals. Arizona is the league’s worst scoring defense and ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass, so Stafford should be able to score as much as he wants/needs to. That’s a real question, though, as Arizona could struggle to keep pace, leading the Rams to take things easy. If you’re rostering Stafford, you need a Cardinals bring-back, but fortunately there are some very obvious ones.
Caleb Williams ($6,200): Caleb Williams and the Bears are slight favorites in a dome game with a 51.5-point total against the Falcons. The problem is he might not play, as he’s still officially questionable as of Friday. He did get in a full practice on Thursday, however, an optimistic sign as he recovers from the slight hamstring tear he suffered in Week 2. With Williams’ upside somewhat dependent on his legs, that’s another factor to consider. With all that said, I’ll continue to bang the drum of rostering injured players before they prove they’re back to full strength instead of after, which could be this week for Williams. That’s especially true given the ideal game environment.
Kirk Cousins ($5,400): Kirk Cousins is the B-side of the Rams/Raiders game with the massive 53.5-point total, with the Raiders implied for an optimistic 24.5 points. Their offensive successes this season have been mostly due to Cousins and the passing game, as Vegas has been unable to get much going on the ground. They’ll likely be chasing points against the Bills. Buffalo has allowed a slate-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.8 to QBs this season, and Cousins has some very obvious stacking partners, making him a slightly contrarian way to build around this game.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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