Week 5 NFL DFS RB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.

However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks

The game between the Lions and Cardinals is going to get a ton of attention for fantasy purposes. Deservedly so. The game has a total of 54.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin. No other game is above 46.5, so it has considerably more upside than the others.

Of course, Gibbs stands out as one of the top options in that game. He’s been a fantasy monster to start the year, averaging a ridiculous 29.0 PPR points per game. He’s already had games for 37.6 and 41.4 DraftKings points this season, and he has the best utilization in football. Gibbs has handled 88% of the Lions’ rushing attempts, and he’s added an 18% target share. Add in 100% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line, and there isn’t a single area where Gibbs isn’t dominating.

Even Gibbs’ “bad” games are pretty good. The Panthers limited him to just 17.7 DraftKings points last week, but Gibbs still had 15 carries and seven targets. It remains to be seen if he can survive with such a massive workload all season, but fantasy players should enjoy it for the time being. 

Gibbs is poised to do serious damage in Week 5. The Cardinals have struggled defensively this season, ranking 27th in EPA per play. Gibbs owns the top median and ceiling projections at the position by a pretty comfortable margin, and he ranks No. 2 in projected Plus/Minus.

Jaylen Warren ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)

There’s a chance that Rico Dowdle returns to the lineup for the Steelers this week. He’s gotten in two limited practice sessions, which bodes well for his availability. Dowdle has missed the team’s past two games, so his return would be a clear negative for Warren.

That said, it’s hard to argue against Warren seeing more playing time moving forward. The offense has thrived over the past two weeks, and Warren has been a big part of it. He had 17 carries for 127 yards two weeks ago vs. the Bengals, and he had 93 rushing yards vs. the Browns in Week 4. Warren also had 10 total targets in those contests, adding six receptions for another 82 yards.

If Dowdle were to sit out again, Warren would be one of the strongest values of the week. He’s dominated the team’s backfield usage without him, posting a 94% snap share, 87% carry share, and 14% target share over the past two weeks. He currently ranks first at running back in projected Plus/Minus.

If Dowdle returns, Warren is probably better suited as a tournament play. He still profiles as the team’s lead back in a solid matchup vs. the Colts. Indianapolis was absolutely shredded on defense through the first two weeks, allowing more than 500 yards to both opponents. Even with slightly less usage than in his past two contests, Warren could still do some damage.

Braelon Allen ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

Breece Hall remains sidelined for the Jets, leaving Allen as the team’s No. 1 RB. His workload in that role last week was extremely encouraging. He played on 94% of the team’s offensive snaps, and he handled 100% of their rushing attempts. He even managed a 14% target share. There was some concern that Allen would split the touches with Isaiah Davis, but that never materialized: Davis had just a 6% snap share and failed to record a single carry or target.

Allen was ultimately limited by the Jets’ terrible offensive execution last week. The team managed just 32 offensive plays vs. the Bears, which is almost unfathomable. Chicago ran 89 plays in that contest, so the Jets simply never had the ball.

Allen should be in a more favorable game script this week. The Browns are a surprising 3-1, and their offense has looked much improved over the past few weeks. However, the Jets are still listed as 2.5-point home favorites. It should result in more opportunities for Allen, who ranks third at the position in projected Plus/Minus.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks

Jonathan Taylor ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel)

Taylor remains arguably the most dangerous pure runner in the entire NFL. He’s yet to crack the 100-yard plateau on the ground, but he’s made up for it by scoring two rushing touchdowns in three of his first four games. He’s unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of those outings.

Taylor is also showing a bit more in the passing game than in years past. He has an 11% target share, and while that’s far from elite, it gives him another way to impact the box score. Taylor has four targets in three of his first four outings, but he did it in just seven of 17 games last year.

Taylor takes the field in a solid spot this week vs. the Steelers. While they’re known for being a defensive team, that hasn’t been the case so far this season. They’re merely 18th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. Each of Pittsburgh’s past two contests has eclipsed 50 total points scored, and there has been some sharp action on the over in Colts-Steelers as well.

Taylor ultimately owns the third-best DraftKings optimal lineup rate at running back in Sim Labs, trailing only Gibbs and Warren. He’s projected for far less ownership than either player, making him an outstanding pivot for tournaments.

Christian McCaffrey ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)

The 49ers are off to an elite start this season. They’re one of just three remaining undefeated teams, joining the Vikings and Chiefs. Their offense is back to being arguably the best in football, ranking first in the league in EPA per play. That’s not a huge shocker. The last time that everyone was healthy for the 49ers, they put together a historic offensive campaign.

However, McCaffrey has been surprisingly quiet given the team’s offensive dominance. He’s averaged 18.5 PPR points per game, which ranks as the ninth-best mark at the position. It’s way down from his average of 24.5 last season, when McCaffrey had to carry a huge workload for a banged-up unit.

Still, this is Christian McCaffrey we’re talking about, and his price tag has reached a pretty appealing point across the industry. McCaffrey has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.69 with a comparable price tag on DraftKings (per the Trends tool), and he’s arguably an even stronger option on FanDuel: his $8,400 salary comes with a 91% Bargain Rating.

McCaffrey will have to deal with the Seahawks’ elite defense this week, and Seattle did an excellent job at slowing him down last season. Specifically, they limited him to just 12.4 and 11.7 DraftKings points in their final two meetings. It’s a big reason why McCaffrey is projected for less than 15% ownership on DraftKings, but his optimal lineup rate still exceeds that figure in Sim Labs.

Aaron Jones ($6,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)

The Vikings are the other 4-0 team that will be in action in Week 5, and Jones has helped carry their offense in recent games. Jordan Mason is currently on IR, and he’ll be sidelined once again this week vs. the Saints. Mason could return after the team’s Week 6 bye, so this could be Jones’ last hurrah as the team’s bell-cow back.

Over the past three weeks, Jones has posted a 78% snap share, 81% carry share, and 17% target share. He’s played on 93% of the short-yardage situations, though the team hasn’t managed even a single carry from inside the five-yard line. Jones’ target share has also crept up to 25% and 22% over the past two weeks, so he’s seeing excellent usage in all areas.

Now, Jones gets arguably the best possible matchup. New Orleans ranks dead last in EPA per rush defensively, and no team has allowed more fantasy points to the position.

His price tag has crept up pretty steadily since taking over as the team’s unquestioned starter, but he still stands out as an excellent value. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where he leads the position with a 99% Bargain Rating. He’s a strong pivot off of Warren in cash games if Dowdle is ultimately available, and he has plenty of tournament upside as well.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside

Emanuel Wilson ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)

Wilson is another potential value option at the position. Jadarian Price was placed on IR last week, and Zach Charbonnet is still at least a week out. That leaves Wilson and George Holani as the team’s only healthy backfield options.

Wilson dominated the usage in that scenario last week. He handled 70% of the team’s rushing attempts, and he added a 21% target share. Holani still played primarily in passing downs, but that didn’t stop Wilson from getting involved as a receiver.

Expect another heavy dose of Wilson vs. the 49ers, who are 17th in EPA per rush defensively this season. Their defense is definitely improved compared to last year’s unit – which was decimated by injuries down the stretch – but it’s still not a group that you need to fear.

Cam Skattebo ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

The Giants have managed to pick up two straight wins, though neither has been a work of art. They could add another to their ledger in Week 5. They’re taking on the Commanders in a game with some sneaky offensive potential.

The Commanders’ defense ranks 20th in rush defense EPA, and they surrendered a big game to Taylor in London last week. Skattebo could see a similar workload for the Giants. While he’s not a clear bell-cow, he’s seen a slight bump in usage following the injury to Jaxson Dart. He’s posted a 70% snap share and 64% carry share over the past two weeks, while he had a 19% target share in Week 3.

The passing game usage is going to be volatile, but Skattebo’s hard-running style on the ground is a given. He’s grading out as undervalued in Sim Labs.

D’Andre Swift ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

Swift could end up becoming the chalk at running back if Kyle Monangai is ultimately ruled out. He’s been held out of practice this week with turf toe, and ESPN’s Chris Fowler reports that it could impact his availability for the next 1-2 weeks. Swift has operated in close to a 50-50 split with Monangai to start the year, so his absence would give Swift a massive boost in value.

Regardless of Monangai’s status, Swift has some tournament appeal vs. the Packers. This game is tied for the third-highest total on the main slate (45.5), and the Packers have been awful defensively sans Micah Parsons. They’re 21st in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.

Chase Brown ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

It looks like Ja’Marr Chase could play this week after all. He suffered a concussion in Week 4, but he is reportedly progressing through the concussion protocol. He got in a limited practice on Thursday, so he’s trending in the right direction.

However, if Chase is unable to go, Brown would be a clear beneficiary. He saw a massive boost in receiving volume after Chase exited last week, catching all 11 of his targets for 71 yards. Even with just nine carries for 10 yards on the ground, Brown still posted a +7.33 Plus/Minus vs. the Jaguars.

If Chase is able to go, it could still end up benefiting Brown. The Bengals are listed as 6.5-point road favorites, and they’re more likely to build a big lead with their star wide receiver in the lineup. It could create a scenario where Brown gets fed the ball late to try to ice the game. Regardless, he’s someone to consider in tournaments this week.

Pictured: Jonathan Taylor
Photo Credit: Imagn