The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. New England Patriots – $7,700 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
Week 4’s main Sunday slate features 12 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and for the second straight week, Josh Allen has the highest ceiling and median projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. According to our Vegas dashboard, the Bills have the highest implied team total for the second straight week as well, this time as they host the 1-2 Patriots and the suddenly struggling Drake Maye.
Allen started the season with two monster games of 38.7 DraftKings points and 40.8 DraftKings points against the Texans and Lions. He threw for five touchdowns and ran for four touchdowns in those two games, while racking up 582 passing yards and not turning the ball over once. He was a totally dominant force and showed his high fantasy upside.
However, last week against the Chargers, Allen struggled a bit, earning only 20.46 DraftKings points and falling short of salary-based expectations. He still ran for two scores but also threw two picks and lost a fumble, while only throwing for 204 passing yards.
Allen will look to bounce back in a tough matchup against the Patriots, who have allowed the fourth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing QBs. He typically plays well against his division rivals and will be looking for a bounce-back showing to keep the Bills undefeated.
On DraftKings, Allen also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at quarterback in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections and the third-highest on FanDuel. He brings very solid per-dollar value in addition to his extremely high raw ceiling, and his rushing contributions raise both his floor and his ceiling in Week 4.
Top Value: Jacoby Brissett at New York Giants – $5,000 on DraftKings, $6,800 on FanDuel
On FanDuel, Jacoby Brissett has the highest Plus/Minus projection among quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, while he has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection on DraftKings, behind Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence.
Brissett and the Cardinals are traveling to the Big Apple to face the banged-up Giants, who did a good job in the rain against the Titans last week but will face a much tougher test from Brissett and the Cardinals.
Last week against the 49ers, Brissett had a huge game trying to rally his team from behind. He attempted 52 passes and finished with 280 passing yards and two touchdowns, while also scoring a third touchdown on the ground to finish with 25.6 DraftKings points.
Brissett has thrown for over 275 passing yards in two of his three games but was held to only 95 passing yards by the Seahawks in Week 2. He proved in Week 3, though, that he can still post big numbers when he gets heavy volume. The veteran has just one turnover on the year and has a good chance to be a solid value in this week’s matchup in New York.
He has a solid group of skill players around him, led by Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, the obvious focal points and target monsters in Arizona’s attack. Rookie RB Jeremiyah Love is also a big part of the offense, and even though they didn’t win in San Francisco last week, it was a very encouraging showing for the entire offense, led by Brissett.
Matthew Stafford picked apart the Giants in Week 2, and Dak Prescott had a pair of passing touchdowns against them in Week 1. The secondary should present favorable matchups for Brissett to attack this week, making him the best value option available in Week 4.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. Denver Broncos – $7,700 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
In both Koerner’s projections and the projections from THE BLITZ, McCaffrey has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all running backs on Sunday afternoon’s slate. Koerner also gives him the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position on DraftKings, where he has an 88% Bargain Rating.
CMC and the 49ers are at home against the Broncos this week, after the proven workhorse running back posted 22.6 and 21.6 DraftKings points to exceed salary-based expectations in each of the last two weeks. He has at least four catches in each of his three games this season and continues to show a meaningful connection with Brock Purdy.
McCaffrey found the end zone just once last week against the Cardinals, but he still had a big fantasy day due to his 75 rushing yards and 41 receiving yards. He carries a huge load for the Niners’ offense as both a rusher and receiver, and that volume raises both his floor and his ceiling.
The Broncos are known for having a strong defense, but they have been beatable on the ground this year, allowing the sixth-most DraftKings points in the NFL to opposing running backs. Kenneth Walker III went off against Denver’s defense in Week 1, Bhayshul Tuten had a solid game in Week 2, and Kyren Williams had 158 rushing and receiving yards against them last Sunday night. The Broncos will be on the road after getting that big home win last week, so look for the 49ers to greet them with a heavy dose of CMC on the ground to try to take advantage of their possibly tired legs.
CMC is always a high-upside play in a favorable matchup, and the 49ers will have to continue to rely on him heavily, especially with injuries continuing to accumulate, especially at wide receiver. The 30-year-old running back is in his 10th season in the NFL but remains an elite option at running back.
Top Value: Braelon Allen at Chicago Bears – $5,200 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel
With Breece Hall (quad) looking unlikely to play in Week 4, Braelon Allen stands out in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections as a strong value to consider. He has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection of all running backs on FanDuel and the fifth-highest on DraftKings.
Hall left late in the Jets’ Week 3 loss to the Lions with a quad injury and is “week-to-week.” He hasn’t been able to practice this week and will likely sit out against the Bears. After Hall left, Allen was clearly the go-to option, and he would have a huge chance to step up against Chicago.
Allen has 19 carries for 61 yards and a touchdown this season and has added four catches for 11 receiving yards as well. He has clearly worked as the No. 2 running back after his big training camp and will likely be set up to take over the primary role this week.
The Bears are a neutral matchup against the run for the most part, but they did limit Saquon Barkley effectively last Monday, although part of that was due to the game flow. If the Jets can keep this game closer throughout, Allen should have a chance to find some holes and offer great value as he steps into a starting role.
If Hall surprisingly has a chance to play or you just don’t trust Allen as a value, Jeremiyah Love, D’Andre Swift, and Chase Brown also stand out as value plays, and I highlighted Brown as a good option in my Early Values for Week 4.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. Los Angeles Chargers – $9,100 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
The Seahawks lost on the road in Washington last week in the return of Sam Darnold. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continued his amazing start to the season, though, and he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all receivers in the FantasyLabs Consensus rankings by a wide margin on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Even though he is extremely expensive, JSN has exceeded his salary-based expectations in each of his three games this season, regardless of whether Darnold or Drew Lock was under center. He has caught six touchdowns over his first three games of the season, producing 29.2, 45.5, and 38.4 DraftKings points for an impressive average of 37.7 DraftKings points per game. No other wide receiver on Sunday’s slate is within 10 DraftKings points of that average.
Smith-Njigba isn’t just touchdown-reliant due to his extremely heavy volume. He has the largest target share in the NFL by a wide margin and is tied for the NFL lead in targets with 36 targets in three weeks, with double-digit targets in each game. He has also put up over 120 yards in each matchup, with a high of 155 yards in Week 2 against Arizona.
In Week 4, JSN gets a favorable matchup against the 0-3 Chargers, who have allowed three WR touchdowns in three weeks and an average of 159.3 receiving yards per game to the position. The Chargers will be desperate for a win, but the Seahawks will be locked in as they come home after last week’s upset.
Heavy volume and plenty of production should be lined up again for Smith-Njigba, who has continued to establish himself as the top WR in the NFL with a historic start to the season.
Top Value: Dontayvion Wicks vs. Los Angeles Rams- $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,900 on FanDuel
Wide receiver is one of the positions with the biggest variance week to week. It’s also one where DraftKings and FanDuel have bigger pricing disparities at times. Wicks is an example of that since he’s so affordable on DraftKings, where he has a 90% Bargain Rating and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the FantasyLabs Consensus projections. Wicks is a little pricier on FanDuel, but he still has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers under $7,000.
The reason why Wicks is getting so much value attention this week is that the Eagles’ top receiver, DeVonta Smith (hamstring), isn’t expected to play Sunday after missing practice all week. Smith has the second-highest target share in the NFL behind only JSN, so there will be a huge hole vacated if Smith is out, especially since TE Dallas Goedert (knee) has also been sidelined and unable to return to practice this week.
Without those two target magnets, Wicks could get plenty of attention, and he has proven he can step up and produce when the work comes his way. He started the season with 15.3 DraftKings points in his Eagles debut against the Commanders and followed that up with 12.4 DraftKings points against the Titans on a season-high five catches. Last week, the offense struggled against the Bears, and he managed just two catches for 32 yards, but he should be set to bounce back this week.
Wicks has a chance to step up as the team’s top receiver against the Rams, who have allowed four WR scores in three games. Wicks will be a little boom-or-bust since he’ll be stepping up to a new challenge, but his upside makes him an outstanding potential value if he gets loose for a big gain or two in Sunday’s home game.
Other WR values that stand out in our DraftKings models include Kalif Raymond of the Bears, Mack Hollins of the Patriots, and Parker Washington of the Jaguars. On FanDuel, Washington, Garrett Wilson of the Jets, Luther Burden III of the Bears, and Jakobi Meyers of the Jaguars have especially strong Plus/Minus projections.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Brock Bowers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – $6,900 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
Welcome back, Brock!
Bowers is back to dominate the top ceiling section of our tight end projections. In the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection on FanDuel, where he is relatively cheaper.
Bowers missed the first two weeks of the season, but he looked ready to make up for lost time in Week 3, going off for 30.6 DraftKings points by hauling in 10 of his 13 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown.
This week, Bowers and the undefeated Raiders host the Chiefs, who have allowed two tight-end touchdowns in three games this season and an average of 5.7 catches for 43 yards per week to the position.
Even though the Chiefs rank in the middle of the pack against the position, Bowers has enough volume coming his way to make him an elite pay-up option in what should be a wildly entertaining AFC West grudge match between two undefeated squads.
Top Value: T.J. Hockenson vs. Miami Dolphins – $3,300 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
The Vikings are also undefeated as they host the 0-3 Dolphins, and veteran tight end T.J. Hockenson is set up to be one of the better affordable alternatives at tight end this week. In the FantasyLabs Consensus projections, he has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection among tight ends on DraftKings and the highest of all options under $5,000 on FanDuel.
He could get some extra work this week if Justin Jefferson (ankle) is out, and he already has been getting enough targets to make him an interesting fantasy value. He had four catches for 36 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, and he has four targets in each of his last two games as well, although he only managed three catches for 29 yards and two catches for 11 yards.
The Vikings went back to Kyler Murray at QB last week after he recovered from his concussion, and he completed 15 of 29 pass attempts for 168 yards in their win over Tampa Bay. At home in the dome in this matchup against Miami, Murray will look to continue to settle into coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense and could focus more on Hockenson if Jefferson is out or at less than 100%. Second TE Josh Oliver (biceps) is also on IR, which could also end up with more involvement for Hockenson.
The Dolphins have been a good matchup for tight ends this season. Opposing tight ends have found the end zone and totaled at least 80 yards against them in each of the last two weeks. Hockenson would be an elite value if he can come close to that production in Week 4.
Pictured: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Photo Credit: Imagn
