Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks
Christian McCaffrey ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel)
The 49ers’ offense is back. They were a historically good unit a few years ago, which was basically the last time the team was fully healthy. They’re back to that level through the first three weeks, ranking first in the league in EPA per play by a wide margin. San Francisco opened with “just” 27 points against the Rams in Australia before erupting for 35+ points in their last two outings.
With the 49ers’ offense thriving, it’s no surprise that McCaffrey has had a strong start to the year. He was limited by cramping in Australia, but he’s bounced back with 21.6 and 22.6 DraftKings points in his past two games. He’s scored three touchdowns over that stretch while providing his usual production in the passing attack. McCaffrey hasn’t been quite as involved as a receiver as he was last year, but his 22% target share is still tied for the best mark at the position.
The big question with McCaffrey is always health, but he seems healthy enough for the time being. That makes him a strong choice at just $7,700 on DraftKings. It’s his lowest price tag of the season, and McCaffrey has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.03 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool). He ranks first at the position in projected DraftKings Plus/MInus, where his pass-catching ability is a bit more valuable than it is on FanDuel.
Chase Brown ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Let’s go from one high-powered offense to another. The Bengals aren’t quite as explosive as San Francisco, but they have the potential to hang plenty of points on the scoreboard. That’s particularly true this week. They’re listed as 2.5-point favorites against the Jaguars in a game with a 51.5-point total. That’s the top mark on the main slate by a full three points.
Brown hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire through the first three weeks, but he has some of the best usage in football. He’s played on 71% of the team’s snaps and handled 78% of their rushing attempts, including 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line. He also has a respectable 11% target share, despite losing work on passing downs to Samaje Perine.
Finding a running back with that level of usage – especially in an offense as good as the Bengals – is pretty rare at just $6,100. His price tag comes with a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, while his 10 Pro Trends rank first at the position.
Aaron Jones ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
Jones continues to stand out as one of the better pure values at the position. He’s especially underpriced at just $6,400 on FanDuel. It results in a 77% Bargain Rating, and he leads all running backs in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Jones has been asked to pick up the slack for the Vikings with Jordan Mason sidelined. The team ran him into the ground a bit in Week 2 – he had 23 carries vs. the Bears – but the pulled back on the reins just a bit last week. Still, he had 17 carries against the Buccaneers, and he was also used as a pass-catcher. He had six targets in that contest after logging zero the previous week.
With Mason still out of the picture, Jones is in a great spot for success against the Dolphins. It’s an elite matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.7. The Vikings are also 10.5-point favorites, so it should be a positive game script. Jones has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of the first three weeks, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again this Sunday.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks
Kenneth Walker ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
This slate is missing both Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, which pushes some of the other RBs up the board. That includes McCaffrey, but Walker also moves near the top of the list. He’s been phenomenal to start his tenure with the Chiefs, posting a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games on FanDuel. He has two 100-yard performances and three total touchdowns, and there’s no reason to expect much different moving forward.
Walker has always been a premier runner, but his fantasy numbers were capped in Seattle. They insisted on using him in a committee, while the Chiefs are letting him run wild. He has a 75% snap share and 79% carry share through the first three weeks, and he’s had 100% of the goal line carries as well. He’s also been used in the passing attack, racking up a solid 17% target share. That’s the sixth-best mark at running back, giving him some of the best usage at the position.
As long as Walker continues to get that many touches, he’s going to put up big numbers. The Raiders will be one of Walker’s toughest tests to date, but the Raiders have also played a pretty soft schedule. Even though they’re currently seventh in EPA per rush defensively, that number could dip as they face better teams.
D’Andre Swift ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
The Bears had zero issues without Caleb Williams last week. Case Keenum stepped in and performed admirably, despite facing a well-regarded Eagles defense.
Unsurprisingly, Swift was a bit more involved than usual with the team missing its starting QB. He had 20 carries and three targets, which was his highest opportunity count of the year. His 71% snap share was also his highest mark of the season.
Swift’s fantasy production in that contest wasn’t awe-inspiring, but it’s a good sign for his prospects moving forward. He has the fourth-highest optimal lineup rate in SimLabs, trailing only McCaffrey, Walker, and Brown.
Derrick Henry ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)
Henry is ancient by NFL RB standards, but he continues to get the job at a really high level. He’s been a monster to start the new season, averaging more than 100 rushing yards per game with six total touchdowns. He’s No. 3 at the position in terms of fantasy points per game, trailing only Gibbs and Walker.
Henry has the potential to continue to add to his impressive tallies on Sunday. He’s taking on his former team in a #RevengeGame, and the Ravens are 11.5-point favorites. Being a big favorite always bodes well for a running back, but it’s particularly potent for a guy like Henry. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.57 when favored by at least a touchdown.
As usual, Henry is more appealing on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. He does almost nothing as a pass-catcher, which hurts him much more in PPR scoring than 0.5-PPR scoring. As a result, he has the third-highest FanDuel optimal lineup rate in SimLabs, but he slips to No. 6 on DraftKings.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside
Ashton Jeanty ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
Jeanty started the year with a bang, but he’s been a bit quiet since then. That said, there’s nothing quiet about his workload. He’s averaged 21 carries per game this season, and he’s also commanded a 19% target share. Only Gibbs has had a more valuable workload for fantasy so far this season.
Expect another heavy dose of Jeanty this week vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City has been middling against the run so far this season (17th in EPA per rush), and this game is expected to be competitive: the Raiders are just 4.5-point home underdogs. He’s popping as undervalued in SimLabs, with his optimal lineup rate exceeding his projected ownership by +4.1% on DraftKings.
Cam Skattebo ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
With Jaxson Dart done for the year, the offense is going to go through Skattebo. He carried the rock 20 times last week vs. the Titans, and he added three receptions on four targets. Skattebo ultimately wasn’t all that productive with his looks, but that’s still a lot of volume for his price tag.
He’ll have the chance to improve his efficiency vs. the Cardinals. Their defense has left a lot to be desired this season, ranking 28th in EPA per play. The Giants are slight underdogs, but he figures to get another heavy workload vs. the Cardinals.
Braelon Allen ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
The Jets lost Breece Hall to an injury last week, which opens the door for Hall to take over as the team’s starter. He likely won’t carry the same level of workload – Isaiah Davis should chip in, especially on passing downs – but Allen figures to handle most of the responsibilities. He played on every snap that Hall missed last week.
Allen hasn’t been particularly efficient so far this season, but he does have a touchdown. He’s a threat to punch one in vs. the Bears, and he should see double-digit carries. He’s another player that is grading out as undervalued in SimLabs.
Tony Pollard ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
The Titans are still looking for their first win, but they’ve been somewhat competitive to start the year. They should’ve beaten the Eagles in Week 2, while they had a chance to beat the Giants last week. They were driving for a game-winning score, but Cam Ward ultimately threw an interception in the end zone.
As long as the Titans can stay competitive, Pollard is going to be a big part of their offense. He handled 81% of their rushing attempts last week, while he was targeted on 36% of his routes run. Most likely, this game vs. the Ravens will turn into a blowout, and Pollard will suffer because of it. But if they can stay competitive for longer than expected, Pollard could end up being a nice value at just $5,800 on FanDuel.
Pictured: Christian McCaffrey
Photo Credit: Imagn
