This season marks year four of our SimLabs tool being available to the public. It’s a powerful feature that allows casual players to build competitive lineups effortlessly — or serious players to leverage their convictions more effectively. We’ve also added the feature of being able to export lineups from SimLabs directly to our models for easy tweaking of lineups.
I broke down some general uses of the tool from an evergreen perspective last season. Moving forward, we’ll be checking out some suggested starting points for building lineups.
The process is simple: from the SimLabs home screen, first select the field size and desired range of outcomes for your lineups. The field size depends on the contest type, while the “results range” allows you to customize how unique you want your lineups to be.
Then, find the box titled “include players” and type your preferred options — then sit back and let the sims do their thing. You can generate as many or as few lineups as you want, then upload directly to DraftKings to be entered into contests.
For more on what SimLabs is and how it works, check out our user guide.
Let’s check out some potential starting points in Week 3.
Tyler Shough + Devaughn Vele
The NFL’s leading passer through two weeks, Tyler Shough, is also second in this week’s “Optimal – Projected Ownership” metric on SimLabs. It’s an interesting spot against a Raiders defense that has looked good and caused plenty of havoc this season, albeit against the Chargers and Dolphins. Regardless of opponent quality, they still have a strong pass rush led by Maxx Crosby, which is what leads me to Vele as the stacking partner for Shough.
Vele has a much shorter aDOT than the Saints’ lead receiver, Chris Olave. With a pass rush bearing down, there may not be enough time for downfield routes to develop, but quick passes to Vele, and potentially tight end Juwan Johnson, should be there.
Of course, the beauty of SimLabs is that it runs through tons of iterations of how the slate could play out and will build some lineups that include both Olave and Vele, or Vele and Johnson, etc. The other interesting part of this stack is the bring-back, as Brock Bowers is questionable to make his season debut for the Raiders.
With this being a late-window game, we won’t have definitive news on Bowers until after lock. However, Bowers is just $100 cheaper than Cardinals tight end Trey McBride. If you’re entering some lineups that include Bowers, make sure to leave $100 of salary available in case you need to pivot after inactives come out.
Geno Smith + Jahmyr Gibbs
Lions quarterback Jared Goff is projecting for the highest ownership on the slate, and with SimLabs crunching the numbers on the likelihood of any player making the optimal lineup relative to their ownership, he’s showing up as the worst starting QB to play. That makes sense, as Goff’s price tag and lack of rushing upside make it hard for him to truly stand out, especially relative to his popularity.
The way to get exposure to that is by approaching from the opposite angle, with the Lions running game and the Jets passing attack. Detroit has a terrible secondary that was thin heading into the season and is already down two starters, creating room for Smith to go off, at least relative to his sub-$5,000 salary. A game script where Smith is throwing a ton likely correlates with more rushing from the Lions, leading to Gibbs.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff is projecting for the highest ownership on the slate, and with SimLabs crunching the numbers on the likelihood of any player making the optimal lineup relative to their ownership, he’s showing up as the worst starting QB to play. That makes sense, as Goff’s price tag and lack of rushing upside make it hard for him to truly stand out, especially relative to his popularity.
Smith has the highest rating in Optimal-Projected Ownership on the slate, while Gibbs is among the top backs, and you’re likely being even more unique by rostering them together. Of course, SimLabs will build most of these rosters with other Jets pieces as well, but rather than worry about which ones, we’ll let the simulations decide.
Jameis Winston + Titans Defense
While rostering a QB and the opposing defense is obviously massively anti-correlated, under certain circumstances it can work out. I distinctly remember weeks when Jameis Winston played for Tampa Bay that he led the slate at QB, while the defense he played against had the top score as well.
That’s due to Winston’s reckless nature: He forces passes downfield that are just as likely to end in a touchdown for his team as his opponent’s. A pick-six actually isn’t a terrible outcome for a QB, as it only subtracts one point while immediately returning the ball to his team in a situation where it needs to be more aggressive.
Obviously, this is a large-field tournament-only play and a bit silly, but there’s a world where it hits at extremely low combined ownership, so I’ll take a few shots at it. As a bonus, both pieces of this “stack” are extremely cheap, so lineups with this combination will also have plenty of stars at other positions.
Pictured: Geno Smith
Photo Credit: Imagn
