Football is back! Week 1 features a 12-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud/Value: Justin Herbert ($6,100) Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (47.5 Total)
There are two very obvious top plays on the Week 1 slate, and they lead their positions in both raw projections and total value. The first of those is Chargers QB Justin Herbert, whose team has a slate-leading 28.5-point implied total as they host the rebuilding Cardinals.
The matchup couldn’t be much better. The Cardinals were one of the league’s worst defenses in 2025, then used the first three picks of their draft (including #3 overall) on offensive players, doing little to address their defensive holes. Arizona also played fast and used a pass-heavy approach, which potentially gives the Chargers an extra possession or two compared to most games. Drafting a running back with a top-three pick likely signals a shift to a slightly more balanced offense, but the game script here is unlikely to make that easy.
On the Chargers’ side, the addition of Mike McDaniel should help modernize a talented Chargers offense. Herbert has plenty of talent around him, including a top-five offensive line, a strong wide receiver duo, and the addition of underrated tight end David Njoku ($3,000). McDaniel managed to make a much less talented Dolphins offense a consistent fantasy gold mine and should be able to scheme up plenty of great looks for Herbert and company.
Herbert is the obvious top play from a projections standpoint, with obvious stacking partners and even some solid bring-back options from the Cardinals. That makes him an excellent option for cash games and tournaments alike, though he should come with fairly high ownership.
Quick Hits
Joe Burrow ($6,600): While the Chargers have the highest team total on the slate, the best game total belongs to the Bengals/Bucs game at 50.5. The Bengals have been one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses for the bulk of Burrow’s career, finishing second in passing rate last season, and that’s likely to continue into 2026 – but especially against another aggressive offense in the Bucs. Cincinnati’s concentrated attack makes stacking fairly easy, which is another boost to Burrow’s tournament value.
Caleb Williams ($6,300): Bears head coach Ben Johnson wants to have the best scoring offense ever, and he’s not going to get there with a bunch of halfback dives. Chicago continues to invest in Caleb Williams, surrounding him with plenty of pass-catching talent and a solid offensive line. The target competition in Chicago is fierce, which makes Williams a better one-off play than a tournament stack, though Rome Odunze being limited with an injury could concentrate targets enough that Williams stacks are also worth playing.
Jared Goff ($6,000): Goff is basically a Herbert arbitrage play this week, with a slightly lower team total and spread and slightly lower projections as well. He’s not cheap enough to justify a pivot on salary grounds, and with a slightly higher ownership projection, it’s hard to consider him the better tournament option, but in a vacuum, he’s a very strong play. Keep an eye on ownership projections throughout the weekend, and if Herbert catches steam relative to Goff, consider pivoting to the Lions starter.
Baker Mayfield ($5,900): Mayfield is my preferred QB in the Bengals/Bucs game. Not only is he $700 cheaper and projecting for lower ownership, but Mayfield brings some rushing upside. He’s also harder to stack due to the variety of receiving options in Tampa Bay. Due to that, my favorite approach to this game is naked Mayfield paired with one or two Bengals wideouts in an effort to capture as much total upside from this game as possible.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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