UFC Shanghai DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Nurmagomedov vs. Song, More Saturday Fights

We’re in Shanghai, China, this week for a 13-fight UFC card, headlined by local favorite Song Yadong taking on former title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov. We have a special 3:00 a.m. ET start time this week, so make sure to get your lineups in Friday night – and be on the lookout for potential overlay if you are up early Saturday for the event.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in the UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

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The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Umar Nurmagomedov ($9,500) vs. Song Yadong ($6,700)

We have an interesting fight between perennial top-three bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov and China’s own Song Yadong, with both men coming in off wins over Deiveson Figueiredo. Nurmagomedov is likely in line for another crack at the 135-pound title when Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan finish their trilogy, thanks to an 8-1 UFC record, with his only loss coming in a close decision to Dvalishvili. Song is 12-4-1 in the UFC but has continuously stumbled against top competition, but this is a golden opportunity to change that narrative.

Umar Nurmagomedov is a much more well-rounded fighter than most of the Nurmagomedov/Makhachev clan, with sharp striking built around his kicking game to go with the traditional Dagestani wrestling base. However, he’s also less dominant on the ground than his teammates/family members, with his last four wins coming via decision. He doesn’t hunt damage on the ground very aggressively, which potentially leaves room for Song to steal rounds with big moments, especially given the dynamic on the feet.

Nurmagomedov is a better striker by the numbers, with an elite 61% significant strike defense. However, he’s slightly chinny, having been knocked down twice in the UFC. Song isn’t quite as clean with his striking but carries plenty of power, with five UFC knockout victories. He also has higher striking output on the feet, which gives him an opportunity to pile up points if this one goes all 25 minutes.

Nurmagomedov’s upside is obvious thanks to his takedowns, with Song potentially hitting the sweet spot of good-enough wrestling to get back up but not enough to prevent takedowns in the first place. Nurmagomedov has been fairly open about his plans to control this one on the ground, and the fight is -200 to go the distance, so both men should have plenty of time to pick up points.

That makes this a better cash game fight than tournament option – though I could see Song sneaking into the optimal in a loss if he lands a knockdown, while Nurmagomedov’s takedowns could outscore a finish from other fighters. I’ll definitely be stacking this in cash games, with relatively even ownership on both sides in tournaments.

The Easy Chalk

Kai Asakura ($9,400)

The four top fighters by salary on this slate all project fairly well, with that group including Nurmagomedov as well as Kai Asakura. The former Rizin FC champion challenged for the title in his UFC debut and was submitted by Alejandre Pantoja, dropped his sophomore appearance by submission, and then finally caught his stride last fight with a knockout win over Cam Smotherman.

The way each of those fights ended is pretty telling about Asakura’s strengths and weaknesses, as he’s much better in striking fights than when forced to grapple. The good news for him is that he’s matched up with Aoriqileng ($6,800), who hasn’t attempted a takedown at any point in his last four fights. “The Mongolian Murderer” is also 1-2-1 in that span and was knocked out less than three months ago.

This is relatively friendly matchmaking for Asakura, who is -200 to win inside the distance and +180 to win in the first round. We probably need the latter outcome at his price tag to make the optimal lineup given the upside from the other expensive fighters, but he has the best odds on the slate (outside of a closely lined heavyweight fight) to do so, making him a solid option. He’s also the cheapest of the group of similarly projecting fighters, making him the easiest to get to for cash games – and likely the most popular as well.

The Upside Plays

Bilal Hasan ($9,600)

Bilal Hasan was very briefly the biggest favorite in Contender Series history (before being supplanted by Bella Mir two weeks later) when he debuted two weeks ago in Week 1 of the current season. The Demetrius Johnson protege needed just 45 seconds to justify those odds and was rewarded with a quick turnaround this week in Shanghai.

This time around, he’s “only” a -800 favorite against fellow 9-0 prospect Nilson Rojas ($6,600), a Peruvian fighter who accepted the short-notice booking to take on Hasan in Shanghai. While both men have identical records, Hasan fought solid competition en route to a CFFC title; Rojas has fought questionable competition, with his last fight coming for a promotion owned by his coach.

Rojas does seem like a solid boxer and reasonably tough, which might actually be a good thing for Hasan’s DFS chances. That toughness potentially gives Hasan a chance to pile up a high volume of strikes – he managed 21 in his 45-second Contender Series bout – and/or show off his underrated grappling if Rojas hangs tough in the striking department.

That combination of grappling and volume upside differentiates him from the other expensive fighters, who, at best, have one of those attributes and are thus more reliant on a quick finish. Given that he also has a proven ability to finish fights quickly and an opponent who had to fly to China on somewhat short notice, he’s my favorite upside play on the slate.

Lawrence Lui ($9,100)

My favorite tournament play on the slate is Lawrence Lui, whose $9,100 price tag and lower stoppage odds than the other $9,000-plus fighters mean he’s likely to go overlooked at the top. He’s taking on UFC newcomer Hector Santiago ($7,100), a 33-year-old “prospect” who was signed directly to the UFC.

Lui is a veteran of the Road to UFC competition, winning last year’s tournament, which concluded with a fight that counts towards his official UFC record. In those three fights, he has two decisions and a second-round knockout victory. Both decisions saw Lui land at least six takedowns, which the field might not be accounting for given that he comes from City Kickboxing in New Zealand.

That’s especially relevant in this matchup given that Santiago comes from a boxing and kickboxing background and was submitted in his only professional MMA loss. The obvious path for Lui is to grapple early and often, which should lead to a big score – whether that comes via takedowns themselves or a quick finish on the ground.

The Value Play

Xiong Jing Nan ($7,300)

Xiong made her way to the UFC at the tail end of her career, with the 37-year-old debuting the last time the UFC was in China, this May against fellow veteran Angela Hill. Xiong was a seven-time ONE FC flyweight champion with a boxing/Sanda (Chinese kickboxing with takedowns but no groundwork) background and had a fun but ultimately unsuccessful debut against Hill.

This time she gets Julia Polastri ($8,900), who is 2-3 in the UFC while alternating wins and losses. One of Polastri’s wins was a split decision, while the other came against 40-year-old Karolina Kowalkiewicz, so her record is perhaps a bit inflated. Overall, Polastri is a fairly standard high-volume women’s striker with limited power and takedown ability, which should make for a fairly competitive matchup with Xiong, who could be described in similar terms.

With this fight the most likely on the slate to go to a decision and both women likely to throw at a high clip, there’s obvious value on the underdog, particularly in cash games. Her floor is high thanks to likely having 15 minutes to work, and an upset at her price tag could be enough for the optimal lineup.

I won’t have a ton of exposure to this fight in tournaments, but the salary relief on Xiong makes it much easier to fit other expensive fighters in your cash game lineups.

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The Contrarian Choice

Namsrai Batbayar ($7,200)

I picked Batbayar to pull off the upset early this week in my “Luck Ratings” piece, mostly based on my interest in fading his opponent, Andre Lima ($9,000). However, I’m also impressed by the power and grappling of the Mongolian Batbayar, who comes in with a 10-1 pro record after winning the flyweight tournament in last season’s Road to UFC event.

Batbayar’s one professional loss came on the regional scene to Nyamjargal Tuemendemberel, who is now 2-1 in the UFC after also winning the RUFC competition. Since that loss, Batbayar has won six straight and maintained his perfectly balanced mix of knockout and submission victories. Counting the Contender Series, Lima has been to a decision in four of six UFC fights, with one of the stoppages a DQ win (in a fight he was probably losing).

That means Batbayar is the likelier finisher here despite being an underdog, at least in my eyes. From a DFS perspective, that gives him a solid floor since a losing effort likely takes 15 minutes and clearly a massive ceiling relative to his price tag.

With the betting lines moving toward Lima throughout the week, there’s also a good chance that most of the field is off Batbayar, which makes him even more valuable as a low-owned tournament option.

The Swing Fight

Liu Ce ($8,700) vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. ($7,500)

Two things can be true about the lone fight above welterweight from China this week: Levi Rodrigues Jr. was brought in to lose to a local fighter, but he also has a clear path to a victory.

Rodrigues had his Contender Series victory overturned due to a positive steroid test and then was finished in the second round by Felipe Franco in his UFC debut. He’s also clearly not being brought in to beat Liu Ce, a popular local fighter known as “China’s Alex Pereira.” A former K-1 champion kickboxer, Liu will be massively popular with the home crowd.

The problem is that Liu looked absolutely terrible the one time he was forced to grapple, suffering a ground-and-pound loss in his third pro MMA fight. He’s competed just once since that 2024 bout, so it’s hard to say if or how much he’s improved, but at a minimum, he’ll be playing catch-up in the grappling department. On the plus side, he’s a massively better striker than Rodrigues and should be able to find a quick finish if this one stays standing for long.

Rodrigues is primarily a striker himself, but one would imagine an MMA fighter from Brazil would have learned some grappling along the way. He also should have some understanding of the dynamics of this matchup and look to grapple, though I’m not especially confident in either of those statements.

However, at his price tag, I don’t have to be, and Ce is relatively cheap given that his likeliest win condition is a quick finish. That makes both men tournament-viable in a fight that’s -900 to end inside the distance, by far the best odds on the slate.

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Pictured: Umar Nurmagomedov
Photo Credit: Imagn Images