The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) $10,600 Los Angeles Dodgers (-235) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday night’s main slate has 13 MLB matchups on the board for DraftKings contests, providing a very strong group of 26 starting pitchers with lots of options to consider for value, upside, and overall production. Of the scheduled starting pitchers, Yamamoto has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections. He also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal of the five elite options over $9,000.
Yamamoto is tied for the most Pro Trends on the slate, and he has the highest strikeout prediction on the board as well. Additionally, his team is the second-heaviest favorite on the slate, per the Vegas dashboard.
The Dodgers are coming home after sweeping the Rockies in Colorado and start a weekend set against the Pirates on Friday. Yamamoto has been excellent overall this season, and in his last start, he earned 29.9 DraftKings points in a home outing against the Brewers. He earned his 12th win of the season with six strong innings, allowing just one run on four hits with nine strikeouts.
He has four quality starts in five outings since the All-Star break, going 3-1 with a 1.82 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 30 strikeouts in 34 2/3 innings over that span.
The Pirates have the highest road K% in the MLB this season and have been slightly below average in most offensive categories when on the road. Yamamoto has been so locked in lately that he makes a strong play in any matchup, but he especially stands out at home with such a good chance to get a win in this favorable matchup.
MLB DFS Value Pick
MacKenzie Gore (L) $8,000 Texas Rangers (-140) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Gore has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all starting pitchers this Friday, as he faces the Angels in this American League West matchup. Gore hasn’t quite lived up to expectations in his first year with the Rangers, but he has had enough strong showings recently to be a good value play in this fantasy-friendly matchup.
In his 26 starts, Gore is 7-9 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. The big lefty has been much better at home at Globe Life Park, though, where he has a 3.27 ERA and has produced 18.6 DraftKings points per game in his 11 home starts.
This will be his fourth matchup of the season against his divisional foe and his second start against them this month. On August 10, he racked up nine strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings against the Angels, allowing four hits and one run on his way to a win and 24.4 DraftKings points. After that outing, he struggled a little bit in his most recent game, but that was on the road at Sutter Health Park.
The Angels have been a great target for high-strikeout arms all season. They rank second in the MLB in K% overall and third in the MLB against lefties. Over the last 30 days, the Halos have scored the fewest runs in the MLB (3.4 per game) and are hitting just .223 with a team wRC+ of just 73 (27% below league average).
Gore has earned at least 13 DraftKings points in four straight outings and in six of his last seven. He has a chance to dominate and post a monster strikeout game, but even if he gives up a few runs, his strikeouts should help limit the damage and help him still be a good value at $8,000.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Will Dion (L) $4,000 Washington Nationals (+130) at Miami Marlins
The only pitcher with a better Projected Plus/Minus than Gore on Friday night’s slate is Will Dion, who is the kind of high-risk, high-reward play that can pay off in tournament lineups. Dion is a bargain at only $4,000, but he’s expected to pick up the bulk work on Friday against the Marlins after Brad Lord serves as the opener.
Dion was part of the Nationals’ return in the Foster Griffin trade and has been very effective with his new team. The 26-year-old lefty spent most of the year in Triple-A, and in 12 MLB games, he had a 4.58 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings for the Guardians. In the minors, he went 5-0 with a 3.62 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings. He did not start any of those games at either level, but the Nationals have been stretching him out and using him in a bulk role.
In his four games for Washington, Dion has stacked up nine shutout innings with nine strikeouts and just one hit allowed. He earned 23.2 DraftKings points for his 4 1/3 innings of strong work last Saturday against the Mets, when he also followed Lord as an opener. In his other bulk appearance, he earned 12.2 DraftKings points against the Reds.
Dion is high-risk since he likely won’t go very deep into the game, but his high strikeout numbers and very low salary make him a very intriguing option for tournament lineups. Using him as one of your starting pitchers leaves you plenty of salary to stack some of the biggest bats available, which is why he gives lineups a very high ceiling this Friday.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by points projection, belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
The Guardians aren’t typically a top option for stacking offense, but in Friday’s matchup against Tanner Gordon ($5,000) at Coors Field, they bring too much upside to overlook, especially at very affordable salaries. Gordon has allowed 15 homers while working to a 5.55 ERA in his 17 games this season. He has been even more hittable at home, with a 7.82 Coors ERA, with 13 homers and 35 runs against him in 38 innings at Coors Field.
Lefties have especially smashed Gordon with 11 of the 15 homers against him, a .315 batting average, .402 wOBA, and an 11.0% barrel rate. Travis Bazzana, Steven Kwan, and Nathaniel Lowe are all lefties on that side of the splits, while Jose Ramirez and Angel Martinez will hit from that side as switch-hitters.
Ramirez has been heating up lately with 7+ DraftKings points in four of his last five games, and Kwan has turned things around after a very slow start. Over his last 10 games, Kwan has averaged 8.5 DraftKings points and has raised his average to 6.2 DraftKings points per game on the season. Lowe was brought in at the trade deadline to add some left-handed power to the lineup, and he has hit two homers with the Guardians, averaging 7.6 DraftKings points per game over his last five contests.
Martinez is also having a breakout year and has hit safely in three straight games. He is hitting .333 in August with one homer, one stolen base, and an .845 OPS after he had a slower month of July.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Abimelec Ortiz 1B ($3,100) Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (Ryan Gusto)
With such a great matchup, the top five hitters in the aggregate Projected Plus/Minus are all Guardians. The first non-Guardian option on the Plus/Minus leaderboard is the Nationals’ rookie lefty Abimelec Ortiz, who has looked ready to contribute since his call-up early in August.
In his 17 games in the majors, the 24-year-old is 13-for-50 (.260) with two doubles and five home runs. He has an impressive 16.2% barrel rate to go with a 51.4% hard-hit rate, and his metrics back up his .375 wOBA and .340 ISO.
The lefty will take on righty Ryan Gusto and is projected to hit second in the order in a premium lineup spot for the Nats. Ortiz has posted a solid 6.7 DraftKings points per game in his time in the majors and has produced 8.3 DraftKings points per game over his last 10.
Daulton Varsho OF ($3,500) Houston Astros vs. Athletics (J.T. Ginn)
The Astros are hosting the slumping Athletics in one of the two AL West matchups on the board. While Ginn has had some good starts as well, he has struggled recently. Over his last six starts, he has allowed 20 runs on 27 hits with a 4.96 ERA and four homers against him. While he has limited righties, lefties have a .326 wOBA against him with nine homers.
Varsho is still a very affordable option in the outfield and has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection of all outfielders except for the Guardians. He’s only hitting .229 on the season but does have eight homers, including one in his last 10 games. During those 10 contests, he averaged 4.0 DraftKings points per game, but the aggregate projections like him to be a nice value on Friday night.
Here’s how he and the rest of the Astros stack up in our PlateIQ tool:
Hao-Yu Lee 2B/3B ($2,800) Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals (Noah Cameron)
The Tigers have given Lee a chance to earn playing time, and the rookie has excelled at the plate while filling in at 2B and 3B. The added flexibility gives him more chances to get into the lineup and also makes him easier to fit into your fantasy roster as well. On Friday, he has the third-highest Plus/Minus at 3B and the sixth-highest at 2B. Depending on what other stars or values you are building around, he can fit into multiple kinds of constructions.
The 23-year-old is hitting .276 on the year but has been even hotter, hitting .438 over his last 10 games with a double, six runs, three RBI, and 5.1 DraftKings points per game.
Lee is expected to hit second in the order against lefty Noah Cameron on Friday, setting him up to be an excellent value option under $3,000 at either of his eligible spots. He hasn’t been very aggressive on the bases, but he did show some potential speed upside to go with his good contact rate through his rise through the minors.
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Pictured: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Photo Credit: Imagn
