The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cam Schlittler (R) $11,500 New York Yankees (-210) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The projection gap between Cam Schlittler and every other pitcher on the slate is as wide as I can recall all season, with Schlittler projecting about five points ahead of the field in median projection and 10 points ahead in ceiling. Naturally, he also leads all pitchers in salary by $2,000, which means his value is more about the context of the slate than your read on his potential production today.
The second-year pitcher is the odds-on favorite to win the American League Cy Young award this season. His ERA sits just over 2.00, and he has a 30%+ strikeout rate through 23 starts in which he’s averaged right around six innings per start, which has worked out to over 23 points per game on DraftKings. The Cardinals are a slightly below-average team against righties, so Schlittler’s likeliest outcome is at or above his typical start.
With a cheap top stack, if Schlittler can pull away from the rest of the pitchers on the slate to the extent he’s projecting, he’s a great play. He has by far the best Vegas odds of any starter, though all of this means he’ll also likely have the highest ownership of any starter. Even with cheap hitters, it’s nearly impossible to roster Schlittler and one of the second-tier starters, so my preferred tournament build is two of the arms in the $8,000–$9,500 range, since you’d only need one of the two to outscore Schlittler to move past most lineups that used him.
However, for cash games and smaller tournaments, the Yankees ace is the clear best option. He’s far safer than the second tier of starters today, and it’s not hard to find the salary to afford him.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Ian Seymour (L) $6,900 Tampa Bay Rays (-173) at Colorado Rockies
To the credit of the Rockies offense, they’ve made major improvements over the past couple months. Early in the season, they were by far the worst offense in the league against left-handed pitching, ranking well below any other team. With that said, their improvements now have them as the second-worst team against lefties – and tied for the third-highest strikeout rate.
All of which is good news for Rays lefty Ian Seymour. Seymour has split time between the bullpen and the starting rotation, and he brings a strikeout rate above 30% in his 28 innings as a starter. His 4.37 overall ERA isn’t great, but thanks to his excellent strikeout rate, his underlying numbers are a bit better. The strikeouts are especially important here, though, since the game is at Coors Field.
I suppose I buried the lede in terms of the bad news a bit, as a game at Coors is always extremely risky for starting pitchers. Seymour also has a flyball rate over 50%, which gives him an even wider range of outcomes than a pitch-to-contact-style ground-ball pitcher. That makes him a tournament-only option – and a potential pair with Schlittler thanks to the salary dynamics. Seymour leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Justin Wrobleski (L) $9,000 Los Angeles Dodgers (-125) at Chicago Cubs
Wrobleski is the standout of the second tier of pitchers today, narrowly leading Logan Webb ($9,500) for the second-highest median projection but checking in at a lower salary. He has a 2.88 ERA this season, though his underlying numbers are slightly concerning, ranging from the mid-threes to the mid-fours. Given the large sample size (112 innings pitched), I expect his ERA to be mostly sticky, though. He’s got a tough matchup against the Cubs, but that’s mitigated by extremely pitcher-friendly weather, and Chicago is implied for less than four runs, making him an interesting pivot from Schlittler, especially if you’re rostering a pair of $9,000-range starters.
Michael King (R) $7,500 San Diego Padres (-102) at Arizona Diamondbacks
King is the bottom (salary-wise) of what I consider the second tier of pitchers today, and like the rest of the group, he’s not without flaws. He has a 3.38 ERA, but most of his underlying metrics are at least a run higher, which might just be sticky at this point or could be a result of a somewhat pitcher-friendly home park. On the plus side, Arizona is the worst team in the MLB by wRC+ against right-handed pitching, so it seems unlikely that this is the matchup where negative regression rears its ugly head. King is unlikely to put up a massive score, but at his price point, anything in the mid-teens could be enough.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
The Rays are at Coors Field tonight, and I’m baffled that their price tags are as low as they are. Tampa is a top-five team in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and they’re taking on an extremely beatable righty in Michael Lorenzen ($5,000), who has an ERA over 8.00 at home. For what it’s worth, he’s not good on the road either, with his road ERA at 5.16.
The Rays have an elite 6.6-run team total tonight, as not only do they get the Coors Field park factor, but the weather in Colorado is hitter-friendly as well, with a double-digit boost to both home runs and total scoring. There’s a slight (roughly 20%) chance of rain around game time, which is worth keeping an eye on, but outside of that, it’s an ideal scenario.
My intuition is that most lineups tonight will include Schlittler, some permutation of a Rays stack, and a cheaper pitcher. I’m most confident in Tampa out of those pieces, so my builds will center around them and two of the mid-range arms as a way to be contrarian, but eating the chalk is totally fine in smaller-field contests and cash games. Plus, pairing them with Seymour is a way to build in some extra correlation.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Hunter Goodman C ($6,200) Colorado Rockies vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Ian Seymour)
One way to be contrarian tonight would be to roster the Rockies instead of the Rays as a main stack. Opposing pitcher Ian Seymour is projecting to be slightly popular, so it’s a double whammy of leverage if you get points out of Rockies bats.
The problem, as mentioned in the write-up of Seymour, is how bad Colorado is against southpaws. I used PlateIQ to find some exceptions to that rule:
Perhaps that should read “exception” in the singular, as Goodman is the only real standout. He’s expensive but could be worth it as a leverage play.
Jake Croneworth 2B ($3,100) San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt)
I briefly touched on the Padres’ home park factors when writing about their starting pitcher Michael King, but the flip side of that is a moderate upgrade to Padres hitters. Going from San Diego to Arizona is a 7% swing in terms of offense, a small but not insignificant amount.
On top of that, Croneworth is just $3,100 despite projecting to hit second in the Padres lineup, which automatically makes him a value. Especially against Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt ($7,200), against whom lefties are hitting .348, more than 70 points higher than righties.
Obviously, I’m not going to get too excited about a .214 hitter with limited power, but at $3,100, there’s enough going Croneworth’s way that he’s worth a look today.
Jeremy Pena SS ($5,000) Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Shane Bieber)
Former Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber ($7,800) has made just 16 combined starts over the last three seasons, and the seven this season have not gone well. He has a 5.74 ERA and an xERA over 7.00, making this a good spot for the potentially overlooked Astros lineup. There’s still a chance Bieber is traded before the 6 PM ET deadline – but if anything, an emergency starter only helps the case for Houston.
Pena is their leadoff hitter, batting .322 on the season with a 154 wRC+ that would be top-five among qualified leaders if he had a few more at-bats. Crucially, shortstop is also fairly thin today, with Pena’s median projection leading the position by about a point and a half. If you can find the salary to afford him, he’s the clear best play at the position.
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Pictured: Cam Schlittler
Photo Credit: Imagn
