The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Max Fried (L) $8,400 New York Yankees (-125) at Chicago Cubs
The Yankees’ offense has been mired in a deep slump since losing Aaron Judge to injury, but they continue to pitch the lights out. They got a gem on Friday from Will Warren in a 2-0 win, and Fried will get the ball on Saturday.
Fried has been limited to just 12 starts this season due to injury, but he’s been awesome when he’s been available. He’s posted a 2.51 xERA, which puts him in the 98th percentile. That stems primarily from his ability to limit hard contact. Opposing batters have a barrel rate of just 1.6% (99th percentile) and a hard-hit rate of just 31.2% (91st percentile).
Fried stands out from a Vegas standpoint on Saturday. The opposing Cubs are implied for just 3.1 runs, which is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and opponent implied run totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.69 (per the Trends tool).
The only real downside with Fried is that he’s not an elite strikeout arm. He’s averaged 8.72 strikeouts per nine innings for his career, and he’s at a career-low 7.88 so far this season. The Cubs rank 20th in strikeout rate against southpaws, so don’t expect a ton of punchouts on Saturday.
Fortunately, Fried is cheap enough where that’s not a dealbreaker. He’s the safest arm on the slate, especially with some of the highest-priced pitchers in subpar matchups.
MLB DFS Value Pick
David Peterson (L) $5,900 Chicago Cubs (+105) vs. New York Yankees
Peterson will take the mound for the Cubs on the other side of that matchup. He was the first piece sold off by the Mets in what is expected to be a massive teardown, and he’s had a pretty dreadful year. He had a 6.09 ERA with New York, and he’s posted a 5.06 ERA in five starts with his new team.
That said, that second number is a bit deceiving. He was absolutely shelled in his second start with the Cubs, allowing 10 earned runs in just 3.2 innings. He’s been more than passable in his other four outings, allowing two earned runs or fewer in each.
Peterson will square off with a Yankees’ lineup that has been toothless without Judge. They’re 28th in July in wRC+ vs. southpaws, and they have the second-highest strikeout rate vs. lefties as well.
With that in mind, it’s not a huge shock that the Yankees are implied for just 3.6 runs in this contest. It’s the second-lowest mark on the slate despite the fact that Peterson is a slight underdog. It makes him a clear value at just $5,900 and allows you to load up on big bats on offense.
I would have no issues rostering Peterson and Fried together in cash games even though only one pitcher can get the win bonus. However, I would be more hesitant to do it in tournaments. We’re looking more for upside in that format, so you want both pitchers to have the potential for a win.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Cristopher Sanchez (L) $10,700 Philadelphia Phillies (-142) at Baltimore Orioles
Sanchez is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, but it’s hard to argue he doesn’t deserve it. He’s putting together a Cy Young-caliber season in 2026, posting a 13-4 record with a 2.73 ERA. Sanchez has arguably the most upside of any pitcher on this slate. He’s been an excellent strikeout arm this season, and the Orioles have the third-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers.
Reynaldo Lopez (R) $6,900 Atlanta Braves (-190) vs. Washington Nationals
Lopez was an absolute sensation for the Braves two years ago, coming seemingly out of nowhere to post a 1.99 ERA. He’s unsurprisingly regressed since then, but he still owns a solid 3.64 ERA between the rotation and bullpen in 2026. He’s the largest favorite of the day at -190, giving him plenty of win potential vs. the Nationals.
Robert Gasser (L) $7,800 Milwaukee Brewers (-125) at Los Angeles Angels
The Brewers continue to churn out quality pitchers, and Gasser has been excellent for the team of late. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts, and he’s had two or fewer in five of them. He’s mowed through the underwhelming Marlins and Rockies lineups in his last two outings, and he draws arguably an even better matchup on Saturday. The Angels have the highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitchers, so Gasser has a bit more upside than usual.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Max Clark, OF ($2,700) Detroit Tigers at Athletics (Jack Perkins)
Clark became the second highly regarded rookie to have a banner debut for the Tigers this season. Kevin McGonigle had four hits in his first professional contest on Opening Day, while Clark delivered a single, two doubles, and a walk on Friday. Despite the down year for Detroit overall – and looming Tarik Skubal trade – the Tigers’ future still feels pretty bright.
Clark remains extremely affordable for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Athletics. He’ll benefit from the same set of circumstances he took advantage of on Friday. He’s facing a mediocre right-hander in Perkins, and he’s doing it in an extreme hitter’s park. Sutter Health Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball, especially from a power standpoint.
Clark did bat merely seventh in the lineup on Friday, but the A’s had a southpaw on the mound. It’s possible that he moves up a bit vs. a right-hander, but it really doesn’t matter where he ultimately ends up. He’s simply too cheap for what he brings to the table, and Detroit ranks third on the slate with a 5.7 implied run total.
Matt Olson, 1B ($4,900) Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals (Miles Mikolas)
The Braves are another team expected to do plenty of damage offensively on Saturday. They’re currently implied for 5.6 runs, and Mikolas is one of the most exploitable pitchers in all of baseball. He’s pitched to a 5.65 ERA so far this season, and he’s allowed more than two homers per nine innings.
Olson stands out as the Braves’ top target. His salary has crept below $5,000 due to a slight July slump, but he still has some of the best power metrics in the game. He’s launched 29 homers and ranks in the 90th percentile or better in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and xSLG.
Olson broke out with a double and a homer on Friday, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again vs. Mikolas. He’s unsurprisingly enjoyed facing him throughout his career, posting a .706 SLG with two homers in 17 career at-bats.
John Rave, OF ($4,200) Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies (Ryan Feltner)
Rave has spent most of the season in Triple-A, but he was recalled to replace the injured Vinnie Pasquantino. What we have seen from Rave this season has been excellent. He’s posted a 191 wRC+ with solid Statcast measurables, including an unreal 35.7% barrel rate. That will likely decline as he racks up more plate appearances, but he’s red hot heading into Saturday’s contest at Coors Field.
Rave batted second for the Royals in their series finale vs. the Twins, and he launched two doubles with a stolen base and a run scored. He was down to seventh in the lineup on Friday, but that’s not a huge detriment at Coors Field. As long as he’s in the lineup, he’s an intriguing option that shouldn’t command a ton of ownership.
Pictured: Max Fried
Photo Credit: Imagn
