The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) $9,900 Los Angeles Dodgers (-162) at New York Mets
There are a bunch of strong pitching options to consider on Saturday, but no one who stands out as a true “stud.” No one is priced in the five-figure range on DraftKings, with Yamamoto checking in as the most-expensive starter at $9,900.
Yamamoto has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since arriving in the USA, and he’s having another quality year for the Dodgers. His metrics aren’t quite as good as they were last season – particularly his strikeout rate – but he’s still pitched to a 2.78 ERA. He’s averaged 22.2 DraftKings points per start, which is the top mark among Saturday’s pitchers.
Yamamoto draws a fantastic matchup Saturday vs. the Mets, who continue to flounder offensively. They’re merely 27th in the league in runs per game, and they’re 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers. Juan Soto also exited Friday’s game early, and if he’s out of the lineup on Saturday, they’ll be even less intimidating than usual.
Yamamoto is getting plenty of respect from Vegas in this spot. He’s the third-largest favorite on the slate, while the Mets are implied for just 3.7 runs.
Yamamoto is also a bit cheaper than usual. He’s been priced above $10,000 for six of his last seven starts, with his last outing vs. the Yankees the lone exception. He dominated the Yankees for 34.4 DraftKings points in a complete game, and he’s had at least that many fantasy points in two of his last three contests.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Robert Gasser (R) $7,200 Milwaukee Brewers (-225) vs. Colorado Rockies
How do the Brewers do it? Despite having a payroll that ranks well below the league average, they’re one of the best teams in baseball for the second straight season. They have only two fewer wins than the Dodgers, who are spending nearly $200M additional on their roster.
The Brewers seem to be able to turn coal into diamonds, with Gasser being the most recent example. After an uninspiring start to the year, Gasser has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. He’s coming off five innings of one-run ball in his last outing, and he added five strikeouts. Overall, he’s been an awesome source of value for fantasy purposes.
Gasser’s price tag is up slightly for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Rockies, but he still stands out as one of the best values of the day. The Rockies are an elite matchup, especially when facing them outside of Coors Field. They’re 20th in wRC+ vs. right-handers on the road this season, and they have the 12th-highest strikeout rate in that split.
Gasser checks in with outstanding -225 moneyline odds, while Colorado’s 3.5 implied run total is the lowest mark on the slate. Unsurprisingly, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and price tags have been strong investments, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.15 (per the Trends tool).
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Paul Skenes (R) $9,700 Pittsburgh Pirates (-135) vs. Chicago Cubs
Skenes has not exactly looked like Skenes of late, and his ERA has jumped all the way to 3.43 for the year. That said, his 2.76 xERA is still one of the best in the league, while his strikeout rate puts him in the 92nd percentile. Getting Skenes at a slight discount is extremely appealing, even against a strong offensive squad like the Cubs.
Nick Martinez (R) $7,800 Tampa Bay Rays (-134) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Martinez is not someone who typically stands out for fantasy purposes. He’s a groundball pitcher, and he ranks in merely the second percentile for strikeout rate. Still, he’s been getting the job done for Tampa Bay. He’s pitched to a 2.59 ERA with a 9-2 record this season, and he should be able to keep the runs off the scoreboard vs. the Guardians. They’ve averaged the second-fewest runs per game this season, and their 3.7 implied run total is tied with the Mets for third lowest on the slate.
Hunter Greene (R) $8,700 Cincinnati Reds (+100) at St. Louis Cardinals
Greene has made just three starts this season, but it hasn’t taken him long to find his groove. After a rocky first outing, he’s racked up 19 strikeouts across his last 13 innings. He owns a 38.2% strikeout rate for the year, which would be one of the best marks in the league if he had enough innings to qualify. It gives him plenty of upside, and his $8,700 price tag has yet to catch up to his production on the bump.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
The Twins haven’t been nearly as bad as they were expected to be coming into this season. They absolutely gutted their roster before the trade deadline last season, but they’re just three games under .500 at the moment. Their revamped offense has more than held its own, averaging the ninth-most runs per game.
They have the potential to do plenty of damage on Saturday. They’re taking on the A’s, who are expected to start right-hander Mason Barnett. Barnett was recently recalled to replace the injured J.T. Ginn, and he’ll be getting his first taste as a starter this season. However, he’s struggled mightily out of the pen, pitching to a 5.18 xERA across 21.1 innings, and he had a 6.85 ERA as a starter two years ago.
The Twins are currently implied for 6.0 runs in this matchup, which is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin. The Brewers rank second in that department, and they’re nearly a full run lower at 5.2.
Minnesota’s offense is also very reasonable for its price tag. Byron Buxton will set you back $6,000, but only two other batters are priced above $4,000. That should make them one of the highest-owned teams on the slate, but you can still target them as long as you look to differentiate your lineup elsewhere.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Dylan Beavers, OF ($2,800) Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves (Bryce Elder)
Beavers is expected to bat leadoff for the Orioles on Saturday, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Elder. Beavers has fared well against righties this year, and he’s posted a .365 wOBA in those matchups over the past 30 days (via Plate IQ).
Elder is also far from the most intimidating matchup. The Orioles are implied for a healthy 4.7 runs in this matchup, and Elder has pitched to a 4.06 ERA across his 19 outings.
Beavers ultimately ranks first among non-Twins in projected Plus/Minus using our blended projection set, and he’s No. 3 overall.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B ($3,600) New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies (Brian Keller)
The Yankees’ offense has looked a bit toothless without Aaron Judge of late, but Goldschmidt is still doing his part. His solo home run accounted for all of the offense in Friday’s 1-0 victory over the Phillies.
Goldschmidt is typically most appealing against southpaws, and he should get one at-bat against Tim Mayza to start the game. After that, he’ll square off with Brian Keller, who is making his MLB debut at 32 years old. He’s pitched well in the minors this season, but guys who wait that long to make their professional debuts are typically not very intimidating.
Willson Contreras, C ($4,200) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies (Ryan Feltner)
The Brewers have the second-highest implied team total of the day, and they should be able to do some damage vs. Feltner. He owns a 5.48 ERA this season, and his 5.86 xERA is somehow even worse. He’s struggled both at Coors Field and on the road, so getting away from Colorado probably won’t help much against a strong Brewers’ lineup. He ranks first at catcher in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and he’s fourth in projected ceiling.
Pictured: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Photo Credit: Imagn
