Bhayshul Tuten: Second-Year Sleeper or Fantasy Football Trap?

The Jaguars backfield is one of the most intriguing situations to consider heading into this season. They lost last year’s lead back, Travis Etienne, opening up plenty of additional opportunities for the rest of the roster.

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On paper, that should lead to a larger workload for Bhayshul Tuten. He has become something of a darling in the fantasy community due to his blazing speed, and people are undoubtedly excited to add him to their rosters this offseason. He’s currently coming off the board with an ADP of pick No. 56 on Underdog and pick No. 55.8 on DraftKings (via our Best Ball tool).

The big question is, can he pay off that price tag? Let’s dive in.

The Case For Tuten

The case for Tuten is pretty simple. With Etienne now out of the picture, Tuten is the clear top back on the roster. He handled just 22% of the team’s rushing attempts last season, and that figure should increase significantly in his second year.

Tuten was impressive in his limited opportunity last year, excelling both with the eye test and in advanced metrics. His 4.32 speed is apparently when you watch him play. The big plays weren’t quite as prevalent as you’d hope as a rookie, but he has the burst to rip through holes and outrun defenders.

His average of 3.7 yards per carry doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but he was third among RBs with at least 75 carries in Success Rate last season. He also ranked 12th in that group in yards after contact per attempt, 10th in tackles avoided per carry, and 10th in first down rate. Those are all big positives that suggest he could improve moving forward.

Tuten also proved adept in the passing game. He didn’t have a ton of opportunities, but he caught 10 of 14 targets for 79 yards and two scores. He was a competent pass catcher in college – his 10.9% target share put him in the 79th percentile – so that could be a bigger part of his game in Year Two.

Add it all up, and the best-case scenario for Tuten is pretty rosy. He could theoretically approach 20+ opportunities per game between rushing attempts and targets, and with his big-play potential, he could turn any one of them into a long touchdown.

The Case Against Tuten

While it’s easy to daydream about Tuten getting a bell-cow role, that currently feels unlikely. The team did add to the running back position this offseason, bringing in Chris Rodriguez from the Commanders. They didn’t pay him a ton of money (two years, $10M), but he is expected to be a factor in the rushing attack.

Rodriguez has missed OTAs with a foot injury, but he is expected to be ready to go for the start of training camp. Even with Rodriguez unable to take the field, the beat reporters have still stated that he’s going to be a factor this season. Sports Illustrated’s John Shipley has called Rodriguez the Jaguars’ “running game hammer,” even though the starter is yet to be determined.

If Rodriguez does operate as the team’s power back, it’s going to give him the edge over Tuten on goal-line carries. That’s a big potential downside for Tuten’s fantasy value.

Additionally, LaQuint Allen could be a big detriment to Tuten’s role in the passing game. Allen is an elite blocker at the position, which NFL coaches prioritize. Jacksonville had the seventh-highest Pass Rate Over Expectation last season, so having a running back who can block is a major plus.

With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Allen featured heavily on passing downs last year. He played on 79% of the long-down-and-distance snaps, while Tuten was at just 4%. It’s a big reason why Tuten was only able to carve out a 3% target share in his first season.

If Tuten isn’t going to get most of the short-yardage or passing-down snaps, how is he going to justify a pick in the first five rounds of fantasy drafts? Even if he leads the team in carries, that’s a lot of potentially empty yards between the 20s without the high-value “money” touches.

The Verdict

Tuten is currently one of the toughest players to rank in fantasy football leagues. The talent is clearly there, but the opportunities feel questionable. Volume remains king in fantasy, so there is undoubtedly some risk in targeting Tuten at his current ADP.

I am personally on the more pessimistic side of the equation, and Sean Koerner seems to agree. He has him ranked 69th overall on Underdog and 73rd overall on DraftKings, both of which are well after his ADP. Chris Gimino is a bit closer to the market, ranking him 55th on Underdog and 53rd on DraftKings.

It is entirely possible that Tuten blows up this summer and ends up climbing even earlier in drafts. That means I’m grabbing some shares of him now just as a bit of insurance. Still, I expect to be underweight compared to the field, and he’s not someone that I currently plan on targeting in redraft formats.

Pictured: Bhayshul Tuten
Photo Credit: Imagn