The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
George Kirby (R) $8,600 Seattle Mariners (-224) vs. Los Angeles Angels
We’ve got a Mariners homestand to start the week, which means we’re going to see some pretty low Vegas totals at the best pitcher’s park in baseball. The Angels have a slate-low 3.1-run implied mark today, which makes Kirby a fairly obvious top pitching option when you consider his $8,600 salary on DraftKings.
Typically, a run total that low is attached to a pitcher with a five-figure price tag, so this is a considerable discount. Kirby has, surprisingly, actually been better on the road this season, with a 4.56 home ERA and a 3.16 road ERA. However, I’m fairly confident that’s just small-sample-size noise: across his career (all with Seattle), his home ERA is almost a full run better than his road mark.
Plus, the matchup doesn’t give us any reason to fade Kirby here. Their wRC+ is a perfectly average 100 against right-handed pitching, but they strike out at the highest rate in the majors. That should help Kirby’s upside, since he’s typically solid in run prevention but has limited strikeout ability.
He’s going to carry pretty heavy ownership (especially relative to an 11-game slate), but I’d rather get unique elsewhere in my lineup than try to find a better pitcher near his price point. He leads the slate in median and ceiling projection but is just fourth in salary.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Robert Gasser (L) $6,700 Milwaukee Brewers (-153) vs. Cincinnati Reds
If there’s some expensive hitters/stacks you want to chase tonight, it’s a good time, as we could potentially spend very little on pitching and still feel good about our options today. Robert Gasser is the lone arm on the slate with a better Pts/Sal projection than Kirby, as his Brewers host the Reds as a home favorite.
It’s hard to get a read on Gasser’s true abilities, as his numbers are all over the place through six starts. He’s thrown 30 innings and has a 4.50 ERA, but his xERA is a much better 3.12. On the other hand, his FIP and xFIP are actually higher than his ERA, so it’s hard to gauge what’s really happening here without diving into the different formulas for various advanced ERA metrics.
That gives him a relatively wide range of outcomes, as does the matchup with the Reds. They rank top 10 against lefties in both wRC+ and strikeout rate, while Gasser has a moderate 23.8% strikeout rate. Him getting chased from the game early or striking out eight over 6 innings both feel roughly equally likely in this spot.
With other moderately priced pitchers as safer options, I won’t have Gasser on my cash-games list. That wide range of outcomes is perfect for tournaments, though, so he’s an interesting option there.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Parker Messick (L) $9,800 Cleveland Guardians (-150) vs. Texas Rangers
Parker Messick trails only Kirby in median and ceiling projection tonight, though his elevated salary means he’ll be a more contrarian option. The rookie has excellent numbers through 16 starts and 94 innings, with a 2.67 ERA and a 27.2% strikeout rate. The visiting Rangers also have one of the highest strikeout rates in the league against lefties at over 25%, which gives Messick massive upside. He’s an excellent partner for Kirby or a pivot from him in tournaments.
Ryan Weathers (L) $8,800 New York Yankees (-135) vs. Detroit Tigers
Weathers is essentially the arbitrage version of Messick tonight, with similar – though slightly worse – numbers. The Tigers are worse overall against lefties and strike out at a lower rate, which smooths Weathers’ range here, but they’re still broadly a slightly positive matchup for southpaws. Crucially, Weathers is projecting for the lowest ownership of the top-five pitching options, all of whom are projecting within about a point and a half of each other.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Miami Marlins:
I don’t remember ever having the occasion to write up the Marlins this season before today, but naturally a game at Coors Field changes things. Miami is one of two teams on the slate with a team total of at least six runs, and they’re the only one of that group playing on the road.
Besides the typical reasons we want to roster teams at Coors, we also have excellent hitting weather. The near-90-degree temperatures boost home runs more than 20% and overall scoring about 8%, and that’s relative to the typical game at Coors.
They’re also facing a very hittable – to put it mildly – opponent in Sean Sullivan ($5,000). Sullivan has thrown just 12 innings in the majors this season, so take everything with a grain of salt, but he has an ERA over 8.00, a strikeout rate below 12%, and a fly-ball rate nearly double the league average. In 54 Triple-A innings, his ERA was above five, so he might just be that bad.
Miami has nearly identical splits against left-handed and right-handed pitching, so that’s not a factor, but it’s a great spot regardless.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Michael Busch 1B ($4,000) Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres (Griffin Canning)
The highest team total on the slate doesn’t belong to either team at Coors Field – it belongs to the Cubs. That’s because the weather in Chicago is making Wrigley Field look like Coors Field, with 90-plus-degree temperatures and wind blowing out to left field approaching 20 mph. Across a moderate 35-game sample size, similar conditions have boosted home runs a ridiculous 78% and total scoring 33%.
The Cubs as a team are a bit pricey tonight – though all very solid plays. My favorite option in terms of bang for your buck is Busch, who has the second-highest median projection and best Pts/Sal mark of any Chicago bat. Much of that is due to opposing starter Griffin Canning ($6,000) being much worse against left-handed pitching.
That makes Pete Crow-Armstrong ($6,300) the best option for Chicago, but at $2,300 cheaper, Busch is an excellent consolation prize.
Manny Machado 3B ($3,900) San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs (Shota Imanaga)
Despite a comparatively more difficult matchup, the Padres have a strong 5.4-run implied total as they also get some elite weather in Chicago. If anything, the wind blowing out to left field helps right-handed power hitters more, especially against a fly ball pitcher like Shota Imanaga ($7,800).
Machado has been bad this year – hence his sub-$4,000 salary – but that’s because righties are eating him alive. He has an OPS nearly 200 points higher against lefties this season, plus great ISO and wOBA numbers we can see in PlateIQ:
Given the poor numbers from the rest of the Padres against lefties, I’m playing Machado as a one-off, but this is a sneaky good spot for him.
Shea Langeliers C ($5,900) Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Eric Lauer)
We’ve got the A’s at home against a lefty, which means it’s Shea Langeliers season. Their ballpark in Sacramento has the best park factors in baseball outside of Chicago, and Langeliers destroys left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .340 with a 1.051 OPS against southpaws this season, and Eric Lauer ($5,200) isn’t exactly a pitcher to avoid.
Lauer comes into the contest with a 4.87 ERA and worse underlying numbers. This is a major negative-regression spot for him thanks to the park factors, especially since he has a 15.5% strikeout rate and a fly-ball rate north of 50%. Dodger Stadium isn’t exactly a pitcher’s park, but it’s much less likely to punish you than Sutter Health Field is.
Langeliers is expensive, but fortunately, we have enough pitching value today that he’s fairly easy to get to, making him one of my favorite plays on the slate.
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Pictured: George Kirby
Photo Credit: Imagn
