The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Paul Skenes (R) $10,500 Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) at Houston Astros
Paul Skenes had an extremely uncharacteristic rough patch in late May, with back-to-back starts of four or more earned runs and only five innings pitched. Rumors of his demise turned out to be unfounded, though, as he rebounded against the division-rival Cubs in his last start. Despite the tough matchup, he notched 10 strikeouts through 5.1 innings with only one earned run, finishing above 25 points on DraftKings.
The pessimistic view of that is that he was slightly lucky, since the Cubs had an additional two unearned runs. The optimistic angle for today is that the Astros are a somewhat easier matchup for righties, with a higher strikeout rate and a wRC+ seven points lower. It’s not a massive upgrade by any stretch, but how much of a boost do we need from 25 points in his last start?
We’re somewhat spoiled at the top with pitching options today, but Skenes rises above the pack as the best option. His median and ceiling projections lead the slate comfortably, and he’s even near the top in Pts/Sal projection. Naturally, his ownership is also coming in over 50%, which is huge on a nine-game slate.
Given the other strong options (most of whom are slightly cheaper), I prefer pivoting to one of the other aces for larger-field tournaments, but Skenes is pretty comfortably the best choice for cash games and GPPs where ownership is less of a concern.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Michael Lorenzen (R) $5,000 Colorado Rockies (+127) at Los Angeles Angels
Handicapping Rockies pitchers is always tricky, since even solid arms struggle to keep runs off the board at Coors Field. To that point, Lorenzen’s ERA on the road is just over half his ERA at home, which feels like a good sign coming into a matchup in Los Angeles.
The bad news is that his road ERA is just over half of his absurd 9.67 ERA at Coors, checking in at 5.04 even when he’s not pitching at altitude. He’s arguably been somewhat unlucky, though, with his xFIP about three runs lower than his overall and road ERAs. Is that enough to get a solid outing from him against a below-average Angels lineup, though? That’s the question.
The answer probably depends on your definition of “solid outing,” which is, of course, relative to his price point. At just $5,000, cracking double digits is probably enough, and with the Angels striking out against righties at the league’s highest clip, Lorenzen could get there even with a few runs allowed.
We have him projected for just over 11 points, making him the clear Pts/Sal leader. His range of outcomes is fairly wide, though, so I wouldn’t fault anyone for fading him in cash games – but the savings go a long way if you’re trying to roster a top stack and a five-figure pitcher alongside him.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Chase Burns (R) $10,000 Cincinnati Reds (-160) vs. Kansas City Royals
Burns was one of the top options in this matchup on Monday before an illness caused him to be scratched from his start. The extra two days of rest could be a good thing for the dominant young arm – or the disruption of his rhythm and lingering effects of his sickness could be a downgrade. It’s hard to say, but he’s been elite and has a plus matchup, so I’m more than willing to lean into the uncertainty in GPPs when he’s projecting for about one-third of Skenes’ ownership.
Gerrit Cole (R) $9,500 New York Yankees (-160) vs. Cleveland Guardians
I was a bit skeptical of Cole upon his return to action in late May, but things couldn’t have gone much better. He’s gone consecutive starts of at least six innings and hasn’t allowed a single run while striking out 12. He gets another winnable AL Central matchup after dominating the Royals in his last start, with the Guardians roughly equal in terms of wRC+, albeit a lower-strikeout team. That caps Cole’s upside a bit, but given how much cheaper he is than Burns and especially Skenes, that’s probably fine. Cole has by far the best Vegas data of any pitcher today, making him a solid value at his price.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Anytime Shohei Ohtani ($11,000) is pitching, it creates an interesting situation for stacking the Dodgers in DFS. As they so often do, they have a slate-high team total of 5.4 runs, but some of that potential production is clearly a result of having Ohtani. Given that their total is more than half a run above any other team, there’s an argument that the non-Ohtani hitters would still be the best lineup tonight, though.
Crucially, his absence also makes the stack much cheaper without running the risk of getting passed up by teams that roster the reigning MVP. That’s an entirely different setup than simply fading Ohtani in favor of cheaper Dodgers options, since there’s no risk of missing out on his big score.
They’re my favorite stack if you’re comfortable rostering one of the cheaper pitchers tonight. It’s technically possible to fit this Dodgers grouping with Burns/Cole if you go minimum-salary players everywhere else, but that’s a bit of a reach. For that reason, I’m looking for cheaper stacks in lineups where I roster two top pitchers.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($5,900) Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Patrick Corbin)
One of those potential alternate stacks is the Braves. While their top-five hitters are only $1,000 cheaper than the Dodgers stack above, that’s potentially enough to make a difference if you want to roster two of the stud pitchers on the slate. More importantly, they’re facing our old friend Patrick Corbin ($6,000).
Corbin has somehow managed a 3.65 ERA this season, but he’s been incredibly lucky with an xERA over 5.00. Unfortunately, the Braves don’t hit lefties particularly well as a team, though they’re still slightly above average in terms of wRC+. Much of that is driven by Acuna, as you can see in PlateIQ:
He leads all hitters in median and ceiling projection and is an excellent one-off even if you aren’t stacking Atlanta.
Nico Hoerner 2B ($4,300) Chicago Cubs vs. Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
Much like the Braves, the Cubs are on the wrong side of their platoon splits against a left-handed pitcher but still come in with an above-average wRC+. Which says more about how good they are against righties than any weakness against lefties. They do have a slightly tougher matchup with Jeffrey Springs ($6,500), who has a 3.60 ERA on the road this season.
With that said, Hoerner does his best work against southpaws by a wide margin. He’s hitting .297 against LHP and .325 against RHP this season, with the gap in OPS over 150 points. He’s also picked up a dozen steals in 60 games and is holding down the leadoff spot in their lineup. All of that makes him an excellent value, and he holds the top overall rating in our tournament model.
Jorge Soler OF ($3,900) Los Angeles Angels vs. Colorado Rockies (Michael Lorenzen)
While Lorenzen is projecting well relative to his salary, he still brings an ERA over 7.00 into tonight’s contest in Los Angeles. The Angels’ 4.8-run total is tied for the second-best on the slate, making them a solid option overall.
Soler is pretty easily the best value, as a sub-$4,000 leadoff hitter in a juicy matchup. He hasn’t been anything special this season, but getting to hit in front of Mike Trout ($6,200) is always a good thing and certainly increases his run-scoring chances. Los Angeles is a solid budget stack, as Trout is the only player on the team priced over $4,000 in what should be a good spot overall.
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Pictured: Paul Skenes
Photo Credit: Imagn
