The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani (R) $11,000 Los Angeles Dodgers (-175) vs. San Diego Padres
To put it mildly, Shohei Ohtani’s salary has finally risen to the level of his production. $11,000 seems to be the unofficial maximum this season, and the Dodgers’ two-way superstar is deservedly priced there today after going for $10,700 his last two starts. Despite that, he’s still one of the top Pts/Sal players on top of having a massive lead in median and ceiling projections today.
If anything, our projections might be underselling his likeliest production a bit. We have him projected for a median of just over 21 points on DraftKings, but he hasn’t finished a single start with fewer than 24 points this year and has allowed just four earned runs in 44 innings of work. His 29.2% strikeout rate is very strong as well and probably should be higher – he’s improved his swinging strike rate relative to last season, when he finished with a 33% K rate.
On top of that, he gets a plus matchup against the Padres, who have a 95 wRC+ and top-ten strikeout rate against righties on the season. They aren’t a huge boost by any stretch, but when you factor in their pitcher-friendly home park plus Ohtani’s already high baseline, you get a very strong projection.
There are enough cheap pitching options on the slate to make Ohtani fairly easy to afford, which of course has the downside of massive ownership. However, given the lack of other strong pitching options, I’m fine eating the chalk.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Aaron Civale (R) $6,500 Athletics (-125) at Los Angeles Angels
One of those cheap options is the Athletics’ Civale, who is the only pitcher projecting for a better Pts/Sal rate than Ohtani tonight. The thesis of “A’s games will have less scoring away from home” has been a mixed bag in their series in Anaheim. The first game was a 2-1 Angels win that saw both starters score well. Last night, the A’s won 14-6, and rostering pitchers was a nightmare.
While the likeliest outcome of any given game is somewhere in the very wide space between three and 20 runs scored, it’s still an upgrade for A’s pitchers relative to their home stadium. Civale has a 3.48 ERA at home but a 2.08 mark on the road this season. His ERA predictors are all in the fours, which suggests he’s been very lucky, in part because he isn’t missing many bats. He has just a 17.9% strikeout rate and 7.5% swinging-strike rate on the season.
The good news is no team strikes out more than the Angels, so even a low-K-rate pitcher like Civale might pick up a few tonight. Of course, we don’t really need him to, given his price point, making him a strong play regardless.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Edward Cabrera (R) $7,200 Chicago Cubs (-119) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The weather at Wrigley Field tonight is brutal for bats, with sub-50-degree temperatures and wind blowing in at nearly 20 mph. That’s led to excellent Vegas data for both pitchers in a game with a 6.5-run total fairly evenly distributed between both teams. Cabrera is both the slight favorite of the two starters and the cheaper option, making him the stronger play, but Kyle Harrison ($8,700) is an interesting contrarian option in a tougher matchup.
Cam Schlittler (R) $10,700 New York Yankees (-176) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The majority of DFS players will just find the extra $300 to get from Schlittler to Ohtani, given the latter’s stronger matchup tonight. That makes Schlittler an interesting pivot, since he has a 30%+ strikeout rate on the season and virtually identical market numbers to Ohtani. We’re currently projecting Ohtani’s ownership to be about 3x that of Schlittler, but does he outscore him 75% or more of the time? That’s the question to ask when deciding between the two for GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Athletics:
I was a bit surprised to see the Athletics as a top stack tonight – and the top handful of stacks all coming from this game – but I suppose I shouldn’t be. The game has a 9.5-run total, which is a full run and a half higher than any other contest tonight.
The A’s are by far the better offense of the two teams tonight, with a 109 wRC+ compared to just 87 for the Angels (both against RHP). They also have the softer pitching matchup against Jack Kochanowicz ($6,000), who comes into the game with a 4.56 ERA but ERA predictors on the other side of 5.00.
While I’m morally opposed to spending up for the A’s away from home – since their average production, and thus price tag, is bolstered by their home ballpark – given the delta between them and any other offense tonight, I’ll probably make an exception. It is hard to roster this iteration of the stack and Ohtani, though, so playing with cheaper combinations might be the way to go.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Maikel Garcia 3B ($4,500) Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox (Connell Early)
The Royals collectively have some of the worst platoon splits against left-handed pitching in the majors, with their team wRC+ dropping 11 points when facing southpaws. This is a shame, since they have a fairly strong matchup against the Red Sox’ Early, who comes into the game with a 3.21 ERA but ERA predictors in the mid-fours. Plus, Fenway Park is always a boost to bats.
Naturally, PlateIQ is a good way to see if there are any exceptions to that rule at a glance:
It’s really just the top two hitters in the lineup with decent numbers, but Garcia is better and considerably cheaper than Bobby Witt ($5,900), making him the stronger option.
Mike Trout OF ($5,500) Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics (Aaron Civale)
While I’m personally taking my chances on Civale for salary reasons, rostering Angels hitters also makes a ton of sense tonight. Their 4.7-run implied total is second only to their opponent’s, and you can roster their top hitters for much less salary than the Athletics’ equivalent.
Of course, Trout is the star of the show. He’s been his vintage self this season, with 12 home runs in 48 games. He’s hitting just .235, but that’s in part due to bad luck. His .267 BABIP is more than 70 points lower than his career mark. Some of that is due to him not being as fast as he once was, of course, but he had a .310 BABIP last season. Expect some positive regression to his average, possibly starting tonight.
Trent Grisham OF ($4,000) New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Trey Yesavage)
I’ve mostly avoided mentioning the AL East showdown between the Yankees and the Blue Jays given the relatively strong chance of a delay or postponement tonight. There’s a roughly 60% chance of rain starting an hour before the game and continuing past when we’d expect it to end, so the odds aren’t great.
However, if it holds out, those conditions are also great for hitters, since low air pressure, high humidity, and warm temperatures all help the ball fly farther. New York’s implied total is tied with the Angels’ for second-best on the slate, and while the team as a whole has some high salaries, Grisham is fairly reasonable as the leadoff hitter and should be fairly contrarian with the weather concerns.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket invite code.
Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
Photo Credit: Imagn
