PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Following the PGA Championship, the PGA TOUR is hosting THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch (par 71, 7,385 yards, bentgrass greens) in McKinney, Texas, which has been the site of this event since 2021. Scottie Scheffler (-31) won last year’s CJ CUP Byron Nelson by eight strokes. This week’s field features 147 golfers, and there will be a top-65 and ties cut after the first two rounds.

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
• Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
• Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The Cliffs Notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts

DraftKings $10,000 Range

Scottie Scheffler ($14,800)

Scottie Scheffler has never been priced higher on DraftKings in his career, and while fitting him requires taking some gambles on cheap players, rostering Scheffler is still the right move for cash games. This is one of the weakest fields of the season, and Scheffler is worlds better than the next player in this field. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Scheffler is a ridiculous +164 favorite to win this tournament. I don’t recall a player ever carrying this short of pre-tournament odds, and fading Scheffler in cash games this week is a big risk, given how much win equity he has at TPC Craig Ranch.

Scheffler has improved each time he has teed it up at this par 71, finishing T47, T15, T5, and first. It wasn’t even a contest during his win here last season, as Scheffler won by eight shots. The world No. 1 shot 61, 63, 66, and 63 in his four rounds, with that 10-under 61 being the second-lowest round of Scheffler’s career. The former Texas Longhorn leads this field in Strokes Gained per round at TPC Craig Ranch, and he ranks first in Strokes Gained per round at Texas courses.

Scheffler disappointed at last week’s PGA Championship, finishing T14, but this was all a product of bad putting, as he ranked 104th in Strokes Gained: Putting. However, Scheffler’s ball striking remained elite, finishing eighth in Strokes Gained: Approach. The complex greens at Aronimink gave Scheffler fits, and his flat stick should resurrect on these greens he knows well at TPC Craig Ranch. Scheffler ranks 26th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season, and he had finished runner-up at three straight tournaments before the PGA Championship. Scheffler is going to bounce back in a big way, and his rejoining the winner’s circle in his home state would be very fitting.

Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

DraftKings $7,000 Range

Stephen Jaeger ($7,700)

Stephen Jaeger is about as high as you can go, and he is a great target at TPC Craig Ranch. Jaeger has never missed a cut at this venue in four starts, and two of these finishes have been top-20 results. Jaeger has an 8-under 63 on his resume at TPC Craig Ranch, and he looks ready to make some noise at the track again. Jaeger has made 8 of 12 cuts with five top-30 finishes this season, most recently with a T18 finish at the PGA Championship last week. Jaeger shot a 3-under 67 in the first round at the difficult Aronimink, and he finished ninth among the major field in Strokes Gained: Putting, marking the fourth time in his last six starts that Jaeger has gained strokes on the greens. Four of the five winners at TPC Craig Ranch have finished the event top 15 in Strokes Gained: Putting, so Jaeger’s hot flat stick should translate into more positive results for him at the par 71.

Doug Ghim ($7,500)

Doug Ghim has finished T19, MC, and T33 in his last three starts at TPC Craig Ranch, and in his past three starts entering this week, Ghim has finished T30 at the Valero Texas Open; T6 at the team-based Zurich Classic, playing with Jeffrey Kang as his partner; and T19 at the Myrtle Beach Classic. Ghim shot under par in all four of his rounds at the Dunes Golf and Beach Club in that latter start, and he has made 7 of 10 cuts this season. When we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 21st in Total Strokes Gained.

Tony Finau ($7,200)

Tony Finau has made the cut in his last eight solo starts, and he has finished T31 or better four times during this run. Finau’s irons have been solid, gaining strokes on approach in four of his last five starts, and while he has no previous history at TPC Craig Ranch, Finau is a former winner in Texas who tends to always fare well in the Lone Star State. The 36-year-old ranks fourth among this field in Strokes Gained per round at Texas venues, and Finau should have a solid debut at TPC Craig Ranch this week.

John Parry ($7,300)

John Parry has never competed at TPC Craig Ranch before, but the consistent Englishman is very underpriced for his talent. Parry has only missed one cut in his last 20 starts worldwide. Parry has finished T31 or better five times this season, including a T14 finish at the Valero Texas Open last month, and he ranks 30th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season, which bodes well for a second-shot course like TPC Craig Ranch. Of the five winners at this course, three have finished the event in the top three in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,000)

Jhonatan Vegas has made 3 of 4 cuts at TPC Craig Ranch, including a T9 in 2021 and a T13 last season. Vegas carded an 8-under 63 in his first round at TPC Craig Ranch last year, and he ranks 14th among this field in Strokes Gained per round at the par 71. Now, Vegas travels back to TPC Craig Ranch as the maker of 5 of 6 cuts and fresh off an impressive showing at the PGA Championship last week. Vegas only finished T44, but he shot a 1-under 69 on Saturday and Sunday, and he led the world-class field in Strokes Gained: Approach. If Vegas can in any way maintain this form as a ball-striker, he could contend in this weak field at TPC Craig Ranch.

DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range

David Skinns ($6,900)

David Skinns has made 3 of 3 cuts at TPC Craig Ranch, and he has made five straight solo cuts between the PGA TOUR and the Korn Ferry Tour, when excluding his withdrawal from the LECOM Suncoast Classic last month. Skinns finished T24 at the Myrtle Beach Classic in his last start, and at the Dunes Golf and Beach Club, he gained strokes on approach and with his putter, and he posted back-to-back 4-under 67s to close out the tournament.

Chandler Blanchet ($6,800)

Blanchet has made four consecutive solo cuts, and he gained strokes on approach at three of these four events. Blanchet finished a respectable T44 at the PGA Championship this past week, and he gained strokes on approach and with his putter at the challenging Aronimink. Facing a much weaker field and easier course this week at The CJ CUP Byron Nelson, Blanchet should post a solid finish, despite this being his first attempt at TPC Craig Ranch.

Danny Walker ($6,600)

Walker finished T25 in his debut at TPC Craig Ranch last season, and his game is trending up right now. Walker has only failed to make the cut once in his last nine solo starts, with four top-40 finishes over this time. Walker has gained strokes on approach at back-to-back events, and during his T38 finish at the Myrtle Beach Classic in his last start, Walker shot a 4-under 67 and a 2-under 69 in his final two rounds.

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Pictured: Scottie Scheffler
Photo credit: Imagn