Wednesday’s NBA slate features just one game, but it’s a big one. The Detroit Pistons will host the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of their series, with each team having won two of the first four games. The Pistons are listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 212.5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Cade Cunningham headlines this slate, and he put together a massive year for the Pistons. He averaged 23.9 points, 9.9 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game, and he propelled Detroit to the top seed in the Eastern Conference. He had to carry a massive burden on the offensive end, with Cunningham being one of the only players on the team who could reliably create his own shot.
Cunningham’s burden has only increased during the playoffs. He’s increased his scoring production to 29.2 points per game in the postseason, while his usage rate has increased from 30.5% to 33.4%. Unsurprisingly, that has led to some strong performances. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of 11 playoff outings, and he’s eclipsed 50 DraftKings points seven times.
Unfortunately, Cunningham has struggled much more in this matchup than in the previous one. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in all seven games vs. the Magic, but he’s done it merely twice vs. the Cavaliers. They’ve limited him to a 39.5% field goal percentage, and he’s averaged just 23.5 points per game.
Still, Cunningham managed to eclipse 50 DraftKings points in Games 2 and 3 before slumping in Game 4. He still owns the top median and ceiling projections in our NBA Models, and he’s second in projected Plus/Minus.
On the other side, the Cavaliers have more of a 1A/1B situation with Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. The two players had similar marks when sharing the floor during the regular season, with Mitchell averaging 1.22 DraftKings points per minute to Harden’s 1.11.
However, Mitchell has pulled away from Harden during this series. Harden has a long track record of disappearing in the playoffs, so Mitchell has had to pick up the slack. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 37.2% in three straight games, including a massive 41.6% mark in the Game 4 victory. He’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in all three contests, and he’s had at least 54.5 DraftKings points in two straight.
Expect Mitchell to continue to look to score the ball at an elevated rate. The Pistons are not an easy matchup, but Mitchell is too cheap for his recent production.
Harden is also coming off his best game of the series in Game 4. He did it more as a distributor than a scorer, handing out 11 assists to notch his first double-double in this series. He did most of his damage as a scorer from the 3-point line and free-throw line, knocking down five triples and all nine of his free throws.
While the Game 4 production was nice, it’s hard to compare Harden to the other two players in this price range. He has the lowest median and ceiling projections and the lowest projected Plus/Minus. However, that comes with the lowest projected ownership of the group. Siding with Harden is tough given his track record, but it could pay big dividends if he turns in another performance like he did in Game 4.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Evan Mobley has yet to have the breakout many people forecast. He has made small improvements to his game since entering the league, but he’s still largely the same player that he was as a rookie. He’s an outstanding defensive player, but he has yet to become a huge presence on offense.
Mobley has struggled to get going in this series. He posted a negative Plus/Minus in Games 2 and 3 before bouncing back with 49.5 DraftKings points in Game 4. Unfortunately, his last performance seems like a massive outlier. He tallied five assists, three steals, and five blocks, all of which are going to be tough to duplicate. Mobley still had just 17 points and eight boards in that contest, which is where most of his fantasy points should be coming from. While Mobley clearly still has some upside, there’s also plenty of downside at his current salary.
Conversely, Tobias Harris has been the model of consistency for the Pistons in these playoffs. They’ve needed a reliable No. 2 option behind Cunningham on offense, and he has fit that role perfectly. He’s increased his scoring production from 13.3 points per game during the regular season to 20.8 in the playoffs, and he’s also chipped in 7.7 rebounds per game.
Harris has ultimately posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one game this postseason. His salary has steadily crept up, but he’s gone for at least 35.0 DraftKings points in all but one game in this series. He doesn’t bring a huge ceiling to the table, but he’s a good bet to return positive value. He ranks second in this price range in projected Plus/Minus.
While Harris has ascended during the playoffs, Jalen Duren has fallen off a cliff. He’s expected to earn an All-NBA selection for his work during the regular season, but he hasn’t been close to the same player during the playoffs. He’s averaged just 10.2 points and 8.5 rebounds per game while shooting just 49.4% from the field. He shot 65.0% during the regular season, so his volume and efficiency are both way down.
It has started to cost Duren playing time. He’s played less than 30 minutes in back-to-back games, including just 26.7 minutes in Game 4. That could’ve been due to foul trouble, but it’s also possible that he’s just not going to be as big a factor moving forward. We have him projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, which feels a smidge aggressive.
There is some buy-low potential with Duren at his current salary, and he should command minimal ownership due to his recent play. That said, he’s just really hard to trust at the moment.
The same can be said of Ausar Thompson. Thompson played a big role for the Pistons in their comeback vs. the Magic, and he’s a tremendous defensive player. However, he’s also a clear liability on offense. Opposing defenses pay him no attention, which makes life difficult for the other four players on the floor.
As a result, Thompson’s playing time has also waned. He saw 32.7 minutes in Game 1 of this series, but he was down to just 18.7 in Game 4. He logged less than 30 minutes in Games 2 and 3, so he’s trending in the wrong direction.
Thompson is an excellent per-minute producer, and he’s capable of racking up stats in the peripheral categories whenever he’s on the floor. Unfortunately, that just might not be very often.
Jarrett Allen was a bit of an afterthought for the Cavs heading into the playoffs. He averaged just 28 minutes per game during the regular season, and he posted just 13.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per contest. Those were both his lowest marks in a Cavaliers uniform.
However, Allen has taken on an increased importance in the playoffs. He’s played at least 31 minutes in five of his past six games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them. As long as Allen continues to see 30+ minutes, he’s too cheap at his current price tag. He leads all players on this slate in projected Plus/Minus, making him one of the strongest options of the day.
With the Pistons hurting for perimeter spacing, they have leaned more on Duncan Robinson. He’s an outstanding 3-point shooter, and he knocked down at least four 3-pointers in his first three games in this series. He responded with at least 28.5 DraftKings points in all three contests, making him one of the better values in those contests.
Unfortunately, when Robinson isn’t making shots, he doesn’t offer much else. We saw the downside of Robinson in his last game, when he finished with just 6.75 DraftKings points in 28.9 minutes.
Still, the good far outweighs the bad. He should see close to 30 minutes once again on Wednesday, giving him a solid chance to return value.
Caris LeVert is a wild card. He’s a source of potential offense for the Pistons, and he put up 39.0 DraftKings points in Game 4. He saw 31.4 minutes in that contest and took full advantage.
That said, LeVert had seen less than 20 minutes in the first three games of this series, so it’s tough to pinpoint how much he’ll play on Wednesday. He and Thompson ultimately feel like they’re competing for the same minutes. Whichever one gets them in Game 5 will likely be a solid investment, while the other will probably struggle. It makes using one of the two an appealing strategy.
Max Strus rounds out this price range, and he has a wide range of outcomes. We’ve seen the good with Strus during the playoffs, including 31.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Pistons. Unfortunately, we’ve also seen the bad, with Strus struggling to get more than 18 DraftKings points in each of the past three games. His playing time is secure; it just comes down to whether or not his shot is falling.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Daniss Jenkins ($4,400): Jenkins was excellent in the Pistons’ two wins in this series and invisible in their two losses. Perhaps going back home will help him get back on track. He’s projected for 21 minutes in our NBA Models, and he can potentially return value with that much court time.
- Dennis Schroder ($3,600): Schroder has been a low-risk, low-reward type of player for the Cavs in this series. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four games, but he’s yet to crack 20 DraftKings points. He should continue to play around 20 minutes per game, giving him a solid floor but not much upside.
- Dean Wade ($3,200): Wade is projected for 22 minutes in Game 5, but that’s about all he has going for him. He’s a terrible per-minute producer, so that’s probably not enough to make a real difference.
- Jaylon Tyson ($2,800): Tyson was important for the Cavaliers during the regular season, but he has not had the same opportunities during the playoffs. He saw just 7.5 minutes in Game 4, so his playing time is trending in the wrong direction.
- Sam Merrill ($2,400): Merrill missed Game 2 of this series with a hamstring injury, but he was able to return for the past two wins. He gives the Cavaliers some punch from the perimeter, and he attempted seven 3-pointers in Game 4. If he can get hot from behind the arc, he has solid upside at a cheap price tag.
- Paul Reed ($2,000): Reed is arguably the most appealing punt play on this slate. He has seemingly taken over the backup center job in Detroit, and with Duren struggling, that has resulted in a decent chunk of minutes. He had 25.0 DraftKings points in 14 minutes in Game 4, and while that’s definitely an outlier, Reed is a fantastic per-minute producer. If he can continue to see that much playing time, he stands out as an excellent value. He ultimately leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
- Isaiah Stewart ($1,600): With Reed emerging, Stewart has seen less playing time. He’s seen less than nine minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight.
- Kevin Huerter ($1,000): Huerter is questionable for Wednesday’s contest, and he’s yet to suit up in this series. It’s hard to imagine him having a huge impact if he does return to the lineup, but he’s another potential source of shooting for a team that desperately needs it.
- Ron Holland ($1,000): Holland is another member of the Pistons who was a solid piece of their success during the regular season but has been a non-factor in the playoffs. That said, he’s at least still seeing some playing time. He’s had at least 5.25 DraftKings points in three of four games in this series, and he could be used in some stars-and-scrubs configurations.
Pictured: Jarrett Allen
Photo Credit: Imagn
