UFC Perth DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Maddalena vs. Prates, More Saturday Fights

The UFC heads to Perth for one of its regularly scheduled trips down under, with the typical card packed with Australia and New Zealand natives. The headliner features former welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena looking to keep his name in title contention as he takes on Carlos “Nightmare” Prates.

We have a very unusual 4:00 a.m. ET start time this week, as the card is timed around the local audience. Be sure to get your lineups situated on Friday night.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Carlos Prates ($8,200) vs. Jack Della Maddalena ($8,000)

We’ve got an intriguing main event in Perth this weekend, as Maddalena looks to rebound from his first UFC loss while Prates continues to build a case for his own title fight. Both men have just one UFC loss, with both coming via decision against top-five fighters.

Maddalena is the more technical fighter, with a 63% significant strike defense rate to just 47% for the more reckless Prates. The Brazilian makes his strikes count, though, with knockout wins inside of two rounds against every opponent except Ian Garry. Garry’s height and reach posed a tricky challenge for Prates, who normally floats on the outside and sets up his jumping, spinning, and lunging attacks.

The key for Maddalena will be movement on the feet, as standing in front of the more powerful Prates likely ends poorly for him. He normally excels at that, though he ate ten leg kicks in his decision loss to Makhachev, despite more than 19 minutes of that fight being spent on the ground. Prates is a much better kicker than the champion and would be wise to slow JDM early before looking to finish him once his movement wanes.

However, Maddalena should have the grappling edge here. He spent back-to-back camps preparing for title fights against grapplers, and surely picked up some offensive tricks. I believe that makes him the likely winner here and boosts his upside in DFS.

For that reason, I’ll be slightly heavier on the cheaper, less popular option for GPPs. For cash games, I’m stacking this one. Both fighters have low floors as either could score a quick KO, but I’m not especially confident in which one it is.

The Easy Chalk

Quillan Salkilld ($9,400)

Poor Beneil Dariush ($6,800) must have done something to anger the UFC Brass, because they seem to be trying to get him killed. Dariush is a great fighter with a fatal flaw — he has no chin left. A younger Dariush was able to make up for his defensive shortcomings by walking through damage in order to find takedowns or his own shots, but that ability is long gone.

Dariush has been knocked out in the first round in three of his last four fights. In the lone exception, he was dropped by former featherweight Renato Moicano before rallying back. Now he’s matched with Australia’s Salkilld, who has three first-round finishes in his four UFC fights.

The other problem for Dariush is that Salkilld is also a strong grappler, with 90% takedown defense in the UFC and eight takedowns of his own in his only fight that went past the first round. While Salkilld almost certainly doesn’t grapple offensively here, he has the ability to keep it standing and attack Dariush’s weakness.

Salkilld has the best first-round finish odds on the slate at just +130 (excepting the Rahiki-Schmid fight that doesn’t have round props listed) and is $400 cheaper than Jacob Malkoun ($9,800) with better upside and a similar degree of safety.

The Upside Play

Marwan Rahiki ($9,600)

Marwan Rahiki is one of the most exciting prospects to join the UFC in recent memory, thanks to his all-offense fighting style. On the Contender Series, he both scored and took two knockdowns in a fight that went just over seven minutes, with his second knockdown ending the night. Then, he followed that up with a war in his UFC debut, landing 90 strikes in two rounds and breaking his opponent’s jaw.

Thanks to an injury to his original opponent, Jack Jenkins, he also has an incredibly soft matchup. The best replacement they could find was Ollie Schmid ($6,600), a 4-2 fighter from the region who has never defeated an opponent with a winning record. Schmid has also been finished in both of his losses, which isn’t a great sign against Rahiki.

The worst-case scenario for Rahiki is a slightly extended fight, but even then, he should be able to pile up points from strikes. The likelier outcome is a quick KO and a big DFS score.

The Value Plays

Tim Elliott ($6,900)

I’m not quite sure why the markets have shifted so much towards Tim Elliott for his fight against Steve Erceg ($9,300). He opened — and his DraftKings price reflects — as around a +300 underdog, with his line plummeting all the way to +165 as of Friday morning.

That makes him an obvious value, as he’s about $700 too cheap for his current moneyline odds. Elliot remains a tough out at 39 years old, with wins in four of his last five contests as his unorthodox grappling style proves difficult for opponents to figure out.

This fight is also one of just three on the card favored to go the distance, which gives him a solid floor even if he doesn’t pull off a victory. That makes him an excellent cash-game play, especially on a slate where salary is hard to come by.

However, I’ll be heavy on Erceg in GPPs, since the massive line movement likely results in tons of ownership for Elliott. Erceg is nine years younger, a Perth native, and has solid power. A finish from him would provide massive tournament leverage, which is worth limiting my ability to cash in both GPPs and cash games.

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The Contrarian Choice

Louie Sutherland ($7,600) and Kevin Christian ($7,500)

I’m grouping these two underdogs together, as the thesis is relatively similar for both. Sutherland and Christian are fighting Tai Tuivasa ($8,600) and Junior Tafa ($8,700), two local favorites in desperate need of wins. Tuivasa has dropped a ridiculous six straight fights, while Tafa has just one win in his last five, while being finished in all four losses.

Sutherland and Christan are among the worst fighters in their respective weight classes and are clearly being brought in to give the fan favorites their best shot at getting back in the win column. However, they’re also both potentially a single takedown away from winning their fights.

Tuivasa and Tafa are both completely lost on the ground, while simultaneously lacking the cardio to get up should they find themselves there. They’re dangerous on the feet so long as it stays there, but Sutherland landed a takedown in his last fight, and Christian won on the Contender Series with a submission, so there’s a clear edge there.

Both underdogs are risky, as their floor is effectively zero thanks to the chances they get immediately finished. I doubt I end up with any lineups featuring both of them, but getting a win at their price range could be the key to unlocking the slate, especially if Elliott doesn’t come through.

The Swing Fights

Ben Johnston ($8,500) vs. Wes Schultz ($7,700)

Former Muay Thai world champion Ben Johnston is taking on former D3 All-American wrestler Wes “Party Time” Schultz in what should be an extremely binary middleweight bout.

Schultz looked terrible against Damian Pinas in his UFC debut, but has shown impressive grappling in his other promotional appearances, even taking down Mansur Abdul-Malik twice on the Contender Series. Johnston is making his UFC debut at 35 after two years of inactivity and just six professional MMA bouts overall.

While Johnston actually has four of his five wins via submission, they were primarily of the “club and sub” variety, and against fairly weak competition. A grappling exchange against a non-wounded Schultz likely goes poorly for the Australian.

On the other hand, the striking credentials are there for Johnston, and Schultz has poor (45%) striking defense and not a great chin. If Johnston finds a few power shots while this one stays standing, it could end in a hurry.

I’d side heavily with Johnston were it not for his inactivity and age, but as it stands, I’m leaning slightly towards “Party Time.” Either way, I’ll have a ton of both sides of this fight in my lineups, since it’s -650 to end inside the distance.

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Pictured: Quillan Salkilld (red gloves)
Photo Credit: Imagn