UFC Vegas 117 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Sterling vs. Zalal, More Saturday Fights

The UFC returns to their home of the Apex with a featherweight tilt between Aljamain Sterling and Youssef Zalal as a headliner. It’s an interesting card, with two fights thrown together this week and a few other short-notice bookings on one side of a fight.

We have a 5:00 p.m. ET. start time this week, with the entire 13-fight card airing on Paramount+.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Youssef Zalal ($8,400) vs. Aljamain Sterling ($7,800)

We’ve got a great fight – for both DFS and real-life purposes – in the UFC Vegas 117 main event. Former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling is consistently an elite DFS option thanks to his high activity level and reliance on takedowns, with Youssef Zalal fitting a similar profile. Both men average over 70 DraftKings points per fight, with Sterling topping 60 points in his most recent loss.

However, we could see both men’s takedown upside is limited in this matchup. Zalal has been more heavily focused on grappling in his second UFC stint. That began in 2024 and has led to a 5-0 record with four stoppages, all via submission. Sterling is one of the best MMA grapplers in the sport, though, so the favored Zalal is likely hoping for a kickboxing match.

With that said, both men score well on a per-minute basis even when striking, so the floor is still reasonably high, especially when considering this fight is favored to last the full 25 minutes. This is a must-stack in cash games, and we could easily see 150+ combined points from this one.

GPPs are more interesting. Sterling is getting on in years and has been knocked out in the past but has the five-round experience and is more likely to grapple. He’s also seen his moneyline move from around +135 when salaries were released to +105 Friday morning. That makes him the better value but will also spike his ownership relative to Zalal.

With that said, the takedown upside from “Funkmaster” is high enough that I view him as the better GPP option overall. Just make sure to take some contrarian shots elsewhere in Sterling lineups, while leaning in to more chalk around Zalal is probably fine.

The Easy Chalk

Jafel Filho ($9,500)

With a handful of heavy favorites on the card, there are a number of directions we could’ve gone with the easy chalk. It makes sense to start at the top, though, where Jafel Filho is taking on Cody Durden ($6,700), who accepted the fight on extremely short notice.

Durden had been released from the UFC following four straight losses, but his willingness to step in on short notice has earned him one more shot. Not a great shot, mind you, as Filho comes into this one as nearly a -700 favorite. While his inside-the-distance lines aren’t up yet, the over/under is set at 1.5 rounds, with the under slightly favored.

Filho is a nightmare matchup for the former wrestler, being a high-level grappler who nearly submitted Mohammed Mokaev in Filho’s UFC debut. His biggest weakness is typically his cardio, but this fight got moved up a weight class to accommodate Durden. That means Filho’s weight cut will be much easier, and he’s taking on an opponent who didn’t have a training camp.

He’s an exceptionally safe pick this week, with solid upside via a quick finish or outpacing Durden down the stretch in an extended fight. I’m rostering him wherever I can find the salary.

The Upside Play

Rodolfo Viera ($9,100)

A slightly riskier, but possibly higher-upside, option is Rodolfo “The Black Belt Hunter” Vieira. As his nickname implies, he was an elite BJJ competitor before transitioning to MMA, and he’s gone 6–4 in the UFC with five submissions.

He’s one of the few BJJ transplants with solid takedowns, which gives him an edge over everyone except high-level wrestlers. His UFC losses have come to Anthony Hernandez, Bo Nickal, Andre Petroski, and Chris Curtis. Curtis is the odd man out as a non-wrestler but was known for his elite takedown defense in his prime.

His opponent this time is Eric McConico ($7,100), who does not carry such a reputation. McConico is 1–2 in the UFC with a split-decision win over Cody Brundage that saw him taken down three times. Just once is probably enough for Vieira to finish the job.

The risk here is that Vieira was badly knocked out by Nickal in his last fight and is seemingly on the verge of being finished at all times when striking with a solid striker. I’m not entirely sure if McConico fits the bill, but this could be sweaty until it hits the canvas. For that reason, I prefer safer high-end options like Francis Marshall ($9,400) and Michelle Montague ($9,300) in cash but love Vieira for GPPs.

The Value Plays

Rafa Garcia ($7,700)

After opening the week at around +125 odds, Rafa Garcia has now flipped to being favored at some books, with the longest odds just +105. That makes him a clear value at $7,700 for his fight against Alexander Hernandez ($8,500), in a fight slightly favored to go all 15 minutes.

He’s not the safest floor play, as Hernandez consistently starts fast and hits hard. However, Garcia has solid takedown ability (3.13 per 15 minutes) and has never been knocked down in the UFC. His one career stoppage loss came via ground-and-pound against an elite wrestler (Grant Dawson), while Hernandez has taken down just two of his last 12 opponents.

Garcia should be able to rack up points via takedowns once Hernandez tires and hopefully win the second and third rounds en route to a decision victory. That would probably be enough for the optimal lineup at his price point, depending on how aggressively he pursues the wrestling against Hernandez.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.

The Contrarian Choice

Adrian Luna Martinetti ($8,200)

I might be on an island backing Adrian Luna Martinetti against Davey Grant ($8,000), as Martinetti has swung from a pick ’em price to about +115 on fight week. I’m sticking to my guns, though, with the potential payoff even bigger as the crowd goes the other direction.

Martinetti was the other half of the epic DWCS fight I mentioned last week when discussing fading Mark Vologdin. Crucially, he was the winning half, landing over 150 significant strikes and three takedowns in that 15-minute bout. That type of pace is obviously extremely valuable for DFS.

It’s even more valuable against a 40-year-old opponent in Grant, who seemed to have slowed down considerably in his last fight against Charles Jourdain. Grant was dropped and then submitted in that fight and seems to be trending in the wrong direction as an aging fighter in a light-weight class.

I was high on Martinetti as a prospect before his fight on DWCS and remain so now, thanks to his physical tools, grappling, and pace. All of those are great assets for DFS, and he’s likely to be one of the least popular options on the slate.

Joselyne Edwards ($7,400)

Joselyne Edwards has finished four straight fights dating back to October of 2024, including just two months ago against Nora Cornolle. She was just 4-4 in the UFC before that span, with nearly as many weight misses (three) as wins.

That makes her one of the most improved fighters in the sport, as she’s developed an ability to exploit her opponents’ weaknesses. I discussed that at length in my betting preview for this fight, where I broke down how she could do so against Norma Dumont ($8,800).

Dumont is probably the better grappler but worse wrestler and athlete here, giving Edwards the option to keep this standing and use her superior speed, power, and volume to win rounds on the feet. The short-notice nature of her appearance in this fight makes sustaining that edge somewhat tricky – but that’s why she’s $7,400.

She’s also projecting as one of the least popular fighters on the slate, despite a strong floor against an opponent who has gone to a decision in all nine of her UFC wins. That makes Edwards a great cash-game salary saver as well as a contrarian GPP pick.

The Swing Fights

Marcus Buchecha ($8,300) vs. Ryan Spann ($7,900)

We’ve got a “Frankenfight” on our hands, as Allen Frye Jr. vs. Max Gimenis has somehow morphed into Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida against Ryan Spann. Buchecha initially stepped in for Frye, but when Gimenis was also injured, former light heavyweight Ryan Spann stepped in to fill the void.

That makes this a two-way short-notice fight between two fighters not known for their cardio. Spann’s last five wins have been in the first round, and going up to heavyweight while accepting a fight on short notice is unlikely to improve his cardio. However, he’s got plenty of power and is taking on a fighter with very limited striking experience.

Buchecha is a legendary jiu-jitsu competitor with a BJJ-themed rap song named after him. Like most BJJ specialists, he’s most dangerous early in fights. That’s partially due to cardio – most BJJ matches are one round – but also due to the sweat later in fights making finding submissions harder.

Either way, both men’s win condition is heavily slanted to the first round, and the fight is a slight favorite to end before they make it back to the stools. With the balanced price tags for both, a first-round win effectively guarantees a spot in the optimal, so I want plenty of both sides here.

Interested in more action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket invite code.

Pictured: Youssef Zalal
Photo Credit: Imagn