We’re taking a pit stop at the Apex before heading to Miami for UFC 327 next week. This one features a fun — but likely meaningless – main event between lightweight action fighters Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan.
We have the usual 5 p.m. ET start time this week, with the entire 13-fight card airing on Paramount+ streaming.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
Updated on 4/3/26
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Chris Duncan ($8,800) vs. Renato Moicano ($7,400)
After two consecutive losses, Renato Moicano is clinging to his top-ten UFC ranking, which he’d surely surrender with a loss to Chris Duncan. It’s clear what the UFC is doing with this matchup, trying to figure out if Duncan’s four-fight winning streak against lesser competition means he’s ready to be a true contender or simply a fun fighter to have on the roster.
Two of the four fights on that winning streak earned Duncan a performance bonus, and three of the four were finishes. The notable difference in his matchup with Moicano is that the Brazilian is a far better grappler than anyone Duncan has faced recently and probably a better grappler (although not a better wrestler) than Duncan himself.
My guess is that Duncan is a heavy favorite here due to Moicano’s losing streak, coupled with the fact that Moicano is now 35. However, that isn’t exactly “washed” even at lightweight, and his losses came to a pair of elite grapplers in Beneil Dariush and Islam Makhachev. Moicano has the better striking stats by the numbers than Duncan, all while facing tougher competition, so if he can keep this one standing, he could easily pull off the upset.
Plus, Moicano has more five-round experience than Duncan, with three fights that were scheduled for five rounds and one that went the distance, while this is Duncan’s first main event. More importantly, we need to save salary in a bad way this week, so going with the lower-owned, cheaper fighter in the main event is especially valuable.
I’m going so far as to only roster Moicano in cash games, and I’ll also be much more heavily invested on him in GPPs. With that said, fading Duncan is somewhat scary given his finishing ability, so it makes sense to hedge with some exposure to him as well.
The Easy Chalk
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev ($9,900)
We’ve got two fighters with massive moneyline odds and a third who isn’t far behind this week. The best option of those is Yakhyaev, who not only is a -1650 moneyline favorite but also comes with ridiculous -300 odds to pick up a first-round finish.
Given the nature of these squash matches, the differentiating factor might be the ability to pick up the quick-win bonus for winning inside of a minute. Yakhyaev has two UFC-affiliated fights (counting the Contender Series) and has needed just 63 seconds combined to finish both of them.
Those were both against relatively low-level competition – but that isn’t changing here. He’s taking on Brendson Ribeiro ($6,300), who is 2-4 in the UFC and has suffered back-to-back first-round losses. I’d argue Ribeiro is still tougher than either of the fighters Yakhyaev has been matched up with previously, but not by much.
My only real concern here is that Yakhyaev or his camp intentionally extends this fight to build some cage time before facing tougher opponents. Even then, he still likely finishes with a very strong score, so I’ll have as much Yakhyaev as I can fit.
The Upside Play
Tommy McMillen ($9,800)
The next on the list of huge favorites is Tommy “Gun” McMillen, the Sean O’Malley protégé/imitator who the UFC is clearly trying to build interest in. He’s being given a debut matchup against Manolo Zecchini ($6,400), who is 0-1 in the UFC with a first-round knockout loss and hasn’t competed since 2023.
McMillen has a vaguely similar style as O’Malley, though he’s not as preternaturally gifted in the striking department. Like O’Malley, his 74″ reach is huge for his division, and McMillen also has the added bonus of a solid wrestling base before turning to MMA.
I rate him below Yakhyaev here, though, because he was also a massive favorite on the Contender Series and needed a majority decision to punch his ticket to the UFC. The good news is he piled up over 100 significant strikes along the way, so he can score well without a finish, but the bad news is none of those 113 strikes were powerful enough to put his opponent away.
Of course, he probably faced a tougher opponent than Zecchini in that fight, so the likeliest outcome here is a finish, but it’s not quite guaranteed. He also has noticeably worse first-round finish odds than Yakhyaev at +120, so I prefer to find the extra $100 in salary if possible – but playing them both together is ideal if you can make it work.
Azamat Bekoev ($9,500)
I actually would rate Bekoev slightly higher than McMillen when factoring in salary, considering how hard it is to find flexibility this week. The Russian is 2-1 in the UFC with a pair of first-round knockout wins, and his loss came against elite striker Yousri Belgaroui, who is now 3-0 in the UFC after finishing another high-level prospect.
The good news about that loss is that Bekoev was able to show off his grappling, picking up four takedowns in just over two rounds. He hadn’t done much of that previously, owing to how quickly he finished his opponents with strikes.
That gives him multiple paths to upside against Tresean Gore ($6,700), who is 2-4 in the UFC with two knockout losses. Gore typically “defends” takedowns by looking for guillotines, which has worked against lesser opponents but probably won’t against Bekoev.
Gore was also thoroughly outstruck by a grappling specialist, Rodolfo Vieira, in his last fight and has just 40% significant-strike defense overall in the UFC. Given Bekoev’s power, it’s likely he gets Gore out of there sooner rather than later, making him my second-favorite play on the slate behind Yakhyaev.
The Value Play
Melissa Gatto ($7,700)
All three women’s fights on the card are somewhat heavily lined to go the distance, making them an obvious starting point for value hunting. My favorite of the three underdog options is Gatto, who has seen a bit of line movement her way for her fight against Dione Barbosa ($8,500).
She’s now just +110 in this Brazil-vs.-Brazil matchup, making her $7,700 price tag extremely reasonable. Those are virtually identical odds as Tabatha Ricci ($8,300), but with a $600 discount in terms of DFS salary. Gatto and Barbosa are both grapplers to an extent, so there’s some takedown upside. However, Gatto is the better striker, outlanding her opponents by about a strike per minute, while Barbosa has a negative striking differential.
Obviously, the ideal scenario is those strikes sway the judges in her favor, and we get a 30-point win bonus on top of her stats. At worst, though, she should get 15 minutes to pile up points while saving you some salary to use on the higher-upside options.
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The Contrarian Choice
Robert Ruchala ($7,000)
I remain surprised that Ruchala is such a heavy underdog against Jose Delano ($9,200), who is making his UFC debut this weekend. Delano needed a decision on the Contender Series to earn his way into the promotion and was taken down twice along the way, which could be a bad sign against Ruchala.
It’s the second UFC outing for Ruchala, who fought William Gomis (5-1 UFC) to a reasonably close decision in his UFC debut. That fight was also in Gomis’ home country of France, so the deck was somewhat stacked against him. His only other career loss came to uber-prospect Salahdine Parnasse, late in the fourth round of a KSW title fight.
Ruchala is a high-level grappler with multiple Polish BJJ titles, making this a good matchup for him against an opponent who can be out-grappled. Ruchala also has solid striking defense, so I’m not especially worried about him getting finished quickly. At a bare minimum, he should be able to last long enough to pay off his $7,000 salary.
The Swing Fight
Guilherme Pat ($8,200) vs. Thomas Petersen ($8,000)
The lone heavyweight bout on tomorrow’s card features what should be a very binary matchup. Minnesota’s Petersen is an accomplished wrestler who has gone 2-3 in the UFC, with his two wins producing 11 total takedowns. Brazil’s Guilherme Pat is a long, rangy striker who should have a considerable edge in striking and athleticism.
From a strategy standpoint, getting a winner in this price range could be huge for DFS, and we’re (almost) guaranteed a win from one or the other. Plus, the likeliest outcome is that Petersen gets a bunch of takedowns or Pat finishes him with strikes.
My lean is to the slight favorite, Pat, as I was impressed by his ability to use over- and underhooks to deny takedown attempts when stuck along the fence. I’d feel more confident in that pick if this fight weren’t in the smaller Apex cage, but we can’t have it all.
I’ll have my GPP exposure split about 2/3 of the way to Pat this week but will likely have one or the other in all of my tournament lineups.
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Pictured: Chris Duncan
Photo Credit: Imagn
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