Tuesday night presents a four-game NBA slate. Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
LaMelo Ball ($8,600)
As the Hornets look to move up the standings, Ball has been excellent, scoring 60, 43, and 48.75 DraftKings points in his last three starts, despite Charlotte winning all these games by at least 19 points. This is noteworthy, as tonight’s matchup vs. the Kings could be another lopsided affair, with the Hornets favored by 17.5 points. Sacramento ranks 28th in defensive rating, and the Hornets’ implied team total is the highest on the slate (124 points), so this is an awesome matchup for Ball, regardless of the blowout risk. The guard scored 48.5 DraftKings points vs. the Kings last month, and Ball has topped 40 DraftKings points in seven of the nine games he has played behind an implied team total of 120 points or greater this season, via the Trends Tool.
Value
Devin Carter ($4,100)
Devin Carter is a strong value with Russell Westbrook (foot) sidelined. With the guard inactive Sunday vs. the Nets, Carter posted 27.25 DraftKings points across 27.1 minutes off the bench in the win for the Kings. Carter’s matchup tonight vs. the Hornets isn’t as appealing, as Charlotte ranks 15th in defensive rating, but he should approach 30 minutes again and is way too cheap for that type of role. With Westbrook off the floor this season, Carter is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 23% usage rate, via the On/Off Tool. Do note that Killian Hayes (foot) is questionable, and if he were to also sit, Carter would see even more work, possibly as the Kings’ starting point guard.
Fast Break
Dejounte Murray ($7,500) – Murray (Achilles) is playing right around 30 minutes a night and he has exceeded 40 DraftKings points in three of his last four, including a 52.75 DraftKings point effort vs. the Rockets. Murray is facing the Knicks’ No. 5 rated defense tonight, but he still brings strong upside in his lone visit to Madison Square Garden.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Desmond Bane ($7,200)
Bane’s recent performances haven’t been great, but he is playing up in pace vs. the Cavaliers tonight and should see a large role with the Magic understaffed. Cleveland ranks 13th in pace this season compared to the Magic, who rank 18th. Additionally, Franz Wagner (ankle), Jalen Suggs (illness), and Anthony Black (abdominal) are out for Orlando. With these three players off the court this season, Bane’s usage rises 6.0 percentage points to 29.6%, and he produces 1.2 DraftKings PPM. Sitting only a half-game back of the 76ers for the No. 7 seed, every game is important for the Magic right now, and Bane has big upside as the team looks to snap a five-game losing streak. When he faced the Cavaliers earlier this month, Bane went off for 54.5 DraftKings points.
Value
Sam Merrill ($4,300)
Sam Merrill has scored at least 24 DraftKings points in four straight games, most recently posting 33 DraftKings points across 32 minutes Saturday vs. the Pelicans. Jarrett Allen (knee) and Jaylon Tyson (toe) both missed that game and will remain out tonight, so Merrill is a lock for over 30 minutes vs. the Magic. Orlando ranks 13th in defensive rating, but the guard’s role out-trumps concerns about the matchup, and he is the top shooting guard value on the slate in our projections. With Allen and Tyson off the court this season, Merrill is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM with an 18% usage rate.
Fast Break
Devin Booker ($9,200) — Booker has scored fewer than 40 DraftKings points in three straight games, but Dillon Brooks (hand) remains out, and Booker is facing a Nuggets defense that ranks 21st in rating this season. Booker has topped 40 DraftKings points in both of his meetings with Denver, and with Brooks off the floor, he is scoring 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a team-high 33% usage rate.
Jordan Goodwin ($4,700) — Goodwin has started in each of the last three games for the Suns and will be a viable option if he continues to start tonight vs. the Nuggets. With the starting role, Goodwin has scored 21.5, 28.5, and 26.5 DraftKings points.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Saddiq Bey ($6,600)
Saddiq Bey has been on a roll, scoring at least 37 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. Since the All-Star Break, he is logging 33.1 minutes per game, shooting 46% from the field, and handling a 21% usage rate. Bey is facing a Knicks defense that ranks fifth in rating this season, but he handled this matchup well back in December, lighting up New York for 47.5 DraftKings points. While another outing like this is unlikely, Bey still has a great chance to exceed 5x value tonight.
Value
Tristan da Silva ($4,800)
Tristan da Silva is the best small forward value on the slate with the Magic depleted. With Wagner, Suggs, and Black out last night vs. the Pacers, da Silva scored 37.75 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. The wing shot 9-of-16 from the field and saw a 19.5% usage rate. Da Silva scored 36.75 DraftKings points vs. the Cavaliers earlier this month, and a similar performance is possible for tonight’s rematch.
Fast Break
Brandon Miller ($7,600) — Miller is best reserved for GPPs at this salary, but he could have a big outing with the Hornets carrying the highest implied team total on the slate vs. the Kings (124 points). This season, Brandon Miller is amassing 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a 28% usage rate, and he is averaging 37.8 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points (seven games).
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Paolo Banchero ($8,900)
Banchero is one of the top spends on the slate at this sub-$9,000 salary. The forward has scored 57 and 45.5 DraftKings points in his last two meetings with the Cavaliers. Plus, with Wagner, Suggs, and Black inactive last night vs. the Pacers, Banchero went off for 54.5 DraftKings points. With those three off the floor this season, Banchero’s usage increases 6.9 percentage points to 35.3%, and he scores 1.3 DraftKings PPM. The Magic desperately need a win tonight, and Banchero should do everything he can to make that happen.
Value
Rasheer Fleming ($3,200)
Fleming has been a solid role player for the Suns with Brooks sidelined. Fleming has topped 20 DraftKings points in three of his last six games. This past Sunday vs. the Raptors, Fleming posted 27.75 DraftKings points in 28.4 minutes off the bench, both of which are season highs. This came in a 22-point blowout win, which won’t be the case tonight, but Fleming should still see around 20 minutes and could exceed 5x value at this low salary. This season, the 21-year-old is scoring 0.8 DraftKings PPM.
Fast Break
Keon Ellis ($4,000) — Ellis should see 20–25 minutes off the bench tonight with both Allen and Tyson out, making him a viable punt. Ellis has surpassed 20 DraftKings points in seven of his last 11, and he is shooting 49% from the field since being traded to the Cavaliers last month.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic ($12,500)
With this being a short, four-game slate, having exposure to Jokic is a must. The center is coming off a 69.5 DraftKings point outing vs. the Trail Blazers, and he has scored over 60 DraftKings points in seven of his last 10 games. The Nuggets are barely hanging onto the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, so every game is crucial right now, and Jokic should dominate, regardless of the fact that he is going against a Suns defense that ranks 10th in rating this season. Jokic is leading the NBA with 1.8 DraftKings PPM this season, and our projections are expecting him to lead this slate in scoring by almost 20 DraftKings points.
Value
Oso Ighodaro ($5,000)
Opposite of Jokic, Ighodaro is one of the top values on the board. Mark Williams (foot) remains out, and as his replacement starter, Ighodaro has scored 25, 40, 36.25, 23.75, and 23.75 DraftKings points in his last five games. Ighodaro is scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM while shooting 64% from the field this season, and the Nuggets are a solid matchup. They rank 21st in defensive rating this season, and to match up with Jokic, the Suns will need Ighodaro on the floor for at least 30 minutes, giving him a strong projection relative to his affordable salary.
Fast Break
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400) — Towns is in good form, posting a double-double of at least 48 DraftKings points in three straight games. The center is coming off a 53.5 DraftKings point showing vs. the Wizards. While no matchup compares to Washington, Towns is in another compelling spot tonight vs. the Pelicans, who rank 23rd in defensive rating this season. The big man should stay hot and naturally come with low ownership, with most paying up for Jokic.
Pictured: Nikola Jokic
Photo Credit: Imagn
