NASCAR

DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for COTA: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the DuraMAX Grand Prix

Circuit of the Americas (COTA) plays host to the first race other than a drafting track for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season.

COTA is a 2.4-mile road course, meaning road-racing skills are of the utmost importance, so road-course aces like Shane van Gisbergen get a huge boost compared to their normal oval performance

Road course races also take a bit of nuance in DFS, because the lap count is quite limited. With only 95 laps, dominators don’t totally fade out of existence, but it’s certainly possible to end up with a zero-dominator lineup that’s optimal or pretty darn close to it.

That means the combination of place differential and finishing position will be the dominant factor in top DFS lineups, so that’s where my model finds the most value.

My practice FLAGS are now posted weekly at Action Network along with four other brand-new practice metrics, and you can find this week’s version here.

Additionally, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part, my Perfect% metric, a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 250,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the DuraMAX Grand Prix at COTA.

DuraMAX Grand Prix Cash Game Picks

Kyle Busch ($8000): Last year’s top dominator starts 30th, and at only $8000, he doesn’t bog down your salary cap too much.

Rowdy didn’t have a great practice or qualifying, ranking 30th and 31st in my two FLAGS metrics, but his track and road-course history is compelling enough to pull him up in my model, and that can’t be ignored.

Practice is only one component of modeling a race, and with some attrition possible, Rowdy is certainly going to move forward if he’s not one of the ones caught up in an incident.

If you can tell, this isn’t the most ringing endorsement in the world of his chances this weekend, so I’d probably limit my exposure to him in tournaments.

Ryan Blaney ($7500): It’s hard to argue against the driver that easily topped FLAGS in practice, including both peak speed and long-run speed, as well as having a decent tire-degradation profile.

However, everyone saw it, and his usage should be through the roof, so Blaney, not known as a road-course ace despite a road-course win, probably makes an interesting underweight play in tournaments.

But in cash games, it’s hard to argue against getting the clearly best car in practice, especially at this price point.

Daniel Suarez ($6900): Suarez comes in at a nice cheap price tag after his move away from Trackhouse Racing to Spire Motorsports, but that just provides opportunity.

His 23rd-place qualifying spot wasn’t flattering, but he ranked eighth in both practice FLAGS metrics along with solid peak and long-run speed.

The former COTA polesitter and road-course winner provides a lot of safety starting in the back half of the field, especially after seeing his practice times.

DuraMAX Grand Prix DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Chase Elliott ($9000): Elliott might be my favorite tournament play, just because I think conditions are right for him to make his mark.

The increased horsepower and reduced downforce NASCAR mandated for road courses compared to last year will help put things back in the drivers’ hands, which could be a throwback to when Elliott dominated road courses in the late Gen 6 era (2016-2021).

The new Chevy body also seemed to help the speed of the bowties, but notably its tires did seem to degrade, as Elliott and his Hendrick Motorsports teammates did rank toward the bottom of my degradation metric.

That said, his long-run pace was nice; it was just the very end of the practice run that his degradation was severe.

I’m sure he and his team learned from it, and I think he has a great shot to come away with a podium, if not a win.

One or two of Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, or Alex Bowman: This trio of drivers start right behind SVG in spots 14-16, but they come in anywhere from $3800 to $5200 cheaper.

Larson is probably my favorite pick of the trio despite his more expensive price tag, because he ranked ninth in speed-based practice FLAGS, inside the top four in long-run speed, and had incredible consistency; so much so that it broke my consistency model.

However, both Buescher and Bowman have their own qualities as well. They each have a road-course win in the SVG era, and they come in at cheaper price points.

I’d look to roster 0-2 in most lineups, but getting at least one is a great way to get leverage on the field, as I have their combined Perfect% at around 85.5% but their expected usage totaling less than 50%.

DuraMAX Grand Prix DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week!

Jesse Love ($5500): It’s a bit scary recommending a part-time, pre-rookie, non-regular, but Love checked a lot of the boxes in Saturday practice.

He ranked above the 50% mark in seven of the eight speed-based metrics, with the other coming barely below 50%.

As you’d expect from a young driver with little Cup experience, it was his consistency that lacked.

That’s all reflected in my model, and I’m okay with inconsistency in a large-field GPP because we’re not looking for a high cash-game floor. We’re looking for upside and speed, and Love proved his car is capable of top-half speeds.

By starting 27th, he provides you with enough place differential that a top-10 finish isn’t out of the question, should he realize his speed and avoid trouble. And with some big-dollar drivers capable of finishing in the optimal lineup, he may not even need a top-10 finish to end up in the perfect lineup.

Pictured: Daniel Suarez
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn

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Circuit of the Americas (COTA) plays host to the first race other than a drafting track for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season.

COTA is a 2.4-mile road course, meaning road-racing skills are of the utmost importance, so road-course aces like Shane van Gisbergen get a huge boost compared to their normal oval performance

Road course races also take a bit of nuance in DFS, because the lap count is quite limited. With only 95 laps, dominators don’t totally fade out of existence, but it’s certainly possible to end up with a zero-dominator lineup that’s optimal or pretty darn close to it.

That means the combination of place differential and finishing position will be the dominant factor in top DFS lineups, so that’s where my model finds the most value.

My practice FLAGS are now posted weekly at Action Network along with four other brand-new practice metrics, and you can find this week’s version here.

Additionally, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part, my Perfect% metric, a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 250,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the DuraMAX Grand Prix at COTA.

DuraMAX Grand Prix Cash Game Picks

Kyle Busch ($8000): Last year’s top dominator starts 30th, and at only $8000, he doesn’t bog down your salary cap too much.

Rowdy didn’t have a great practice or qualifying, ranking 30th and 31st in my two FLAGS metrics, but his track and road-course history is compelling enough to pull him up in my model, and that can’t be ignored.

Practice is only one component of modeling a race, and with some attrition possible, Rowdy is certainly going to move forward if he’s not one of the ones caught up in an incident.

If you can tell, this isn’t the most ringing endorsement in the world of his chances this weekend, so I’d probably limit my exposure to him in tournaments.

Ryan Blaney ($7500): It’s hard to argue against the driver that easily topped FLAGS in practice, including both peak speed and long-run speed, as well as having a decent tire-degradation profile.

However, everyone saw it, and his usage should be through the roof, so Blaney, not known as a road-course ace despite a road-course win, probably makes an interesting underweight play in tournaments.

But in cash games, it’s hard to argue against getting the clearly best car in practice, especially at this price point.

Daniel Suarez ($6900): Suarez comes in at a nice cheap price tag after his move away from Trackhouse Racing to Spire Motorsports, but that just provides opportunity.

His 23rd-place qualifying spot wasn’t flattering, but he ranked eighth in both practice FLAGS metrics along with solid peak and long-run speed.

The former COTA polesitter and road-course winner provides a lot of safety starting in the back half of the field, especially after seeing his practice times.

DuraMAX Grand Prix DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Chase Elliott ($9000): Elliott might be my favorite tournament play, just because I think conditions are right for him to make his mark.

The increased horsepower and reduced downforce NASCAR mandated for road courses compared to last year will help put things back in the drivers’ hands, which could be a throwback to when Elliott dominated road courses in the late Gen 6 era (2016-2021).

The new Chevy body also seemed to help the speed of the bowties, but notably its tires did seem to degrade, as Elliott and his Hendrick Motorsports teammates did rank toward the bottom of my degradation metric.

That said, his long-run pace was nice; it was just the very end of the practice run that his degradation was severe.

I’m sure he and his team learned from it, and I think he has a great shot to come away with a podium, if not a win.

One or two of Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, or Alex Bowman: This trio of drivers start right behind SVG in spots 14-16, but they come in anywhere from $3800 to $5200 cheaper.

Larson is probably my favorite pick of the trio despite his more expensive price tag, because he ranked ninth in speed-based practice FLAGS, inside the top four in long-run speed, and had incredible consistency; so much so that it broke my consistency model.

However, both Buescher and Bowman have their own qualities as well. They each have a road-course win in the SVG era, and they come in at cheaper price points.

I’d look to roster 0-2 in most lineups, but getting at least one is a great way to get leverage on the field, as I have their combined Perfect% at around 85.5% but their expected usage totaling less than 50%.

DuraMAX Grand Prix DraftKings DFS Paul Menard Pick of the Week!

Jesse Love ($5500): It’s a bit scary recommending a part-time, pre-rookie, non-regular, but Love checked a lot of the boxes in Saturday practice.

He ranked above the 50% mark in seven of the eight speed-based metrics, with the other coming barely below 50%.

As you’d expect from a young driver with little Cup experience, it was his consistency that lacked.

That’s all reflected in my model, and I’m okay with inconsistency in a large-field GPP because we’re not looking for a high cash-game floor. We’re looking for upside and speed, and Love proved his car is capable of top-half speeds.

By starting 27th, he provides you with enough place differential that a top-10 finish isn’t out of the question, should he realize his speed and avoid trouble. And with some big-dollar drivers capable of finishing in the optimal lineup, he may not even need a top-10 finish to end up in the perfect lineup.

Pictured: Daniel Suarez
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn

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