The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Joe Burrow vs. Arizona Cardinals – $6,500 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
After three games on Christmas and a pair of Saturday matchups, Sunday’s Week 17 main slate has nine games on the board, and of the 18 QBs expected to start, Joe Burrow has the top median and ceiling projections at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. As highlighted above, we’ll be utilizing an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections throughout this post, providing a strong, balanced approach to the slate.
Burrow and the Bengals have had a rough season and are 5-10 coming into their last two games. Burrow missed most of the year with a toe injury but has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in three of his four games since returning. Last week was his best showing of the season, as he led the Bengals past the Dolphins with 309 passing yards and four touchdowns.
He has exactly 25 completions in each of his last three games, but he went off for 31.96 DraftKings points on the strength of those four touchdowns last week. He also had four passing scores in the snow in Buffalo in Week 14, when he also had over 25 DraftKings points.
This week, he gets a great matchup against the Cardinals, who have allowed at least three QB touchdowns in each of the last three weeks and in five of their last six games. Both defenses in this matchup have been some of the worst in the league, which is why this game has the highest over/under on the board for Sunday.
There should be plenty of points flowing for both teams, but Burrow’s Bengals have the highest implied team total on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard, so building around Burrow is a great place to start your Sunday lineups.
Top Value: Trevor Lawrence at Indianapolis Colts – $6,100 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
On both sites, Lawrence has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks in the three-way aggregate projections. He edges out Jacoby Brissett and Geno Smith, who are strong considerations if you want to go even cheaper at the position. Lawrence looks set up to return great value, though, as he and the Jags roll into Indy for a divisional matchup.
Lawrence has been on a heater, exceeding salary-based expectations in six straight weeks on FanDuel and five on DraftKings. He is coming off back-to-back monster games against the Jets and Broncos. In Week 15 against New York, he threw for 330 yards and five touchdowns while running for another touchdown, and last week, he followed that up with 279 passing yards, three touchdowns, and another rushing score. He had 47.3 and 31.2 DraftKings points in those two games and is now averaging over 20 DraftKings points per contest.
Lawrence has 26 passing touchdowns in his 15 games this season and has tacked on seven rushing scores as well. He seems to be thriving in the new offense brought in by Liam Coen, and he’ll remain a strong play as the Jags push to secure the division title.
Three weeks ago in Jacksonville, Lawrence threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts, and in this rematch, he has a healthier group of receivers to work with. The Colts’ defense is playing on a short week after giving up 295 passing yards and five passing touchdowns to Brock Purdy last week.
In this matchup, Lawrence should be ready to keep rolling, making him a high-upside play and a good pick to return strong value since he’s adding rushing touchdowns and running an offense that has scored 25+ points in each of his last eight games since the team’s Week 8 bye week.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Ashton Jeanty vs. New York Giants – $6,100 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
It’s very unusual to have a top ceiling pick with such a low salary, but Jeanty brings the top median, ceiling, and floor projection on DraftKings, where he has a 94% Bargain Rating and the best Plus/Minus projection on the slate at running back as well. On FanDuel, he also has the top median projection and the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
While he’s had to deal with some inconsistencies this season, partially due to sketchy offensive line play, Jeanty had a huge breakthrough last week against the Texans. He took his 24 carries for 128 yards and a touchdown and added a 60-yard reception for another touchdown on his way to 34.8 DraftKings points.
The projections point to another huge game for the rookie in what will be a key matchup for determining the NFL Draft order for next year.
The Raiders host the Giants in Week 17, and New York has been the second-best matchup for running backs this season, allowing the second-most DraftKings points to the position per game. Running backs have scored 17 touchdowns against the Giants in 15 games and are averaging 121.9 rushing yards and 32.8 receiving yards per contest.
The Raiders played the Texans tough last week and have been within one score in many of their recent losses. The team continues to play hard despite their disappointing record, and Jeanty should be set up for a follow-up performance to last week’s breakout as the Raiders try to get a big win at home before hosting the Chiefs in their season finale.
Top Value: Rhamondre Stevenson at New York Jets – $5,900 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Stevenson has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all running backs on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jeanty. He could be set up for a huge workload in this favorable matchup against the Jets, and he will be a strong value play even if he is a little chalky.
The Patriots could be without RB TreVeyon Henderson and WR Kayshon Boutte, who each left last week’s Sunday Night Football win with concussions. WR DeMario Douglas has also been limited by a hamstring injury. If the Patriots are missing playmakers, they could lean heavily on Stevenson, who has been a grind-it-out back for them when healthy this season.
Stevenson and Henderson have shared work when they’re both healthy, with Henderson starring while Stevenson was out. Now that Henderson could miss a game, Stevenson makes a good play in the reverse scenario. Last week, after Henderson left in the second quarter, Stevenson stepped into a workhorse role and finished with 17.8 DraftKings points on eight carries for 51 yards with a touchdown and two catches for 27 yards.
Stevenson has at least 10 DraftKings points in three straight weeks, even while sharing time with Henderson, and he has been the team’s preferred option near the goal line, scoring four touchdowns this season, all on the road.
He’ll be on the road for this matchup against the Jets, who gave up three touchdowns to Henderson earlier this year when the teams met in New England. Stevenson missed that game but should be ready to take advantage of this matchup if the tables are turned in Week 17.
The Jets have allowed 23 RB touchdowns in 15 games this season, including multiple RB touchdowns in five straight games before keeping the Saints’ running backs out of the end zone last week. Stevenson’s a much more proven option than Audric Estime and Evan Hull, though, so he should be able to get into the end zone at least once with the potential for much more in such a smashable spot.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase vs. Arizona Cardinals – $8,300 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
It’s no surprise since Burrow has the top ceiling at QB; his top target, Ja’Marr Chase, is the top ceiling WR this week as the Bengals face the Cardinals. Chase has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection in the aggregate projections on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Chase has continued to post elite totals even with the Bengals’ struggling. He has at least 100 yards in three of his four games since serving his suspension and in six of his last 10 games overall. He didn’t get into the end zone for the last four weeks but has still posted over 20 DraftKings points three times.
Last week, he had nine catches for 109 yards in the team’s win over the Dolphins, and he had 11 targets, giving him double-digit targets in eight of his last 10 games. With so much volume coming his way, the speedster gets plenty of chances to make big plays and post huge totals.
If he gets back into the end zone this week, he has a great chance of being one of the top receivers on the slate. The Cardinals have allowed 11 WR touchdowns this season and gave up multiple WR scores in two straight games before last week’s matchup against the Falcons. They held Atlanta’s limited receiver group out of the end zone, but that will be a much tougher ask against Chase and Tee Higgins, who have been very productive when available this season.
In this high-scoring contest, Chase-Burrow could be the key pay-up stack to build around this week.
Top Value: Tre Tucker vs. New York Giants – $3,800 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
It’s unusual to get a team’s top receiver at this price point, but since the Jakobi Meyers trade, Tucker has been in that role for the Raiders. He has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel, where he’s behind three higher-priced options. Meyers is also a good value if you don’t trust the Raiders (which would actually make sense).
With Brock Bowers (knee) on IR, there should be even more targets available for Tucker this week in a favorable matchup against the Giants. We’ve seen Tucker’s extremely high ceiling this season, when he went off for 43.9 DraftKings points in Week 3 with three touchdowns against the Commanders.
He hasn’t been able to duplicate that success, although he does have double-digit fantasy points in three other games this season. Last week, he caught four of his five targets for 43 yards against the Texans’ tough defense and added 11 rushing yards on two attempts. He has multiple catches in 14 of his 15 games this season and has averaged over 40 receiving yards per game.
Getting that much production with a growing target share would be worth checking out in almost any matchup, but especially against the Giants, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. The Giants have allowed 15 WR touchdowns in 15 games, with opposing receivers averaging 160.6 receiving yards per game against them.
Tucker is high-risk, but at this salary, he’s definitely worth taking a flier on with so much upside. If you want other value options, check out Meyers, Josh Downs, or Cooper Kupp on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Wan’Dale Robinson, Adonai Mitchell, and Stefon Diggs stand out as strong value plays.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Cincinnati Bengals – $7,500 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
McBride is automatic at this spot, and he continues to bring the top projections at this position by a wide margin, especially with Bowers out of the picture now. McBride once again has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel again this week, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at tight end on FanDuel.
McBride had a quiet week by his lofty standards last week, finishing with just four catches for 27 yards. He still got eight targets, though, so he still makes plenty of sense in a great matchup against the Bengals.
McBride is up to 109 catches for 1,098 yards on the season with 10 touchdowns, and he’s averaging over 70 yards and over 19 DraftKings points per game.
The Bengals have been the best matchup in the NFL for tight ends this season. Tight ends have scored 15 touchdowns in 15 games against Cincinnati and have averaged 90.8 yards per game.
In this case of an irresistible force taking on an extremely movable object, McBride should be in a position to deliver a huge bounce-back total in Week 17.
Top Value: Tyler Warren vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $4,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
While Michael Mayer is a great fill-in play at tight end in place of Bowers, I’m going with Warren in this value spot since we already have Jeanty and Tucker in this post. At tight end, Warren has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He’s working with Philip Rivers at QB now instead of Daniel Jones, but the rookie still brings lots of upside. He has at least six targets in each of the last three games, so even though he has only totaled seven receptions in those three games, the chances are still there for him.
Last week, he was targeted nine times by Rivers against the 49ers, but he only managed to catch three passes for 30 yards. If he gets that much work again in this matchup, though, he should be able to return value against the Jags, who have been a top-10 tight end matchup this season.
At home, Warren has averaged 13.0 DraftKings points per game and scored three touchdowns in eight contests. If Rivers continues to funnel him more targets, the rookie should be in a good spot on Sunday.
Pictured: Trey McBride
Photo Credit: Imagn
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