This Christmas, the NFL is giving us a three-game slate, with sequential games starting at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. There are some massive prize pools at hand, including the “Merry Millionaire” contest with a million-dollar prize to the winner.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Dak Prescott ($6,900) Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Washington Commanders (50.5 Total)
It’s an extremely tough slate for offense in general, but especially at the quarterback position. Three of the six available options are backups, and none of those backups started the season as the #2 QB for their respective teams. That leaves three NFL-caliber starters to choose from on the slate — one of those being Prescott.
He and the Cowboys have the highest team total on the slate by about three points, as they take on the Commanders in a game where neither team has anything to play for. Still, this is a divisional rivalry game, so expect both teams to be playing to the best of their abilities this week. The last time these teams faced off, Dallas dropped 44 points, with Prescott connecting for three touchdowns.
There’s also a strategic edge to building rosters around Prescott and/or Cowboys’ stacks. With this game playing first, you’ll have more information available to you in order to make late swaps, which is always a crucial factor (especially in cash games) on slates where every game is played in its own window.
On a normal slate, Prescott would be considered a bit overpriced for his likeliest production. However, points are going to be hard to come by while salary isn’t especially tight, so Prescott’s median and ceiling projection lead are more impactful than usual.
Value: Josh Johnson ($4,400) Washington Commanders (+7) vs. Dallas Cowboys (50.5 Total)
Starting opposite Prescott is career backup Josh Johnson. They signed Johnson this spring to be their QB3 behind Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota, both of whom are now injured. Johnson last started an NFL game in 2021 for the Ravens, when, to his credit, he threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes.
That was a long time ago, though, especially in the context of Johnson now being 39 years old. How much he has left remains to be seen, and he went 5 for 9 with an interception after taking over last week. The good news is now he’ll have at least a couple of practices with the starters — and he gets to face one of the worst defenses in the league.
Dallas has allowed the second-most points of any team in the NFL and the most fantasy points to QBs. Johnson has solid talent around him to throw the ball to and a reasonable offensive line, so he should at least have some moments of success against Dallas.
The downside is the salary savings aren’t as useful as they normally would be, though you can still put the excess salary to good use at other positions. Plus, Johnson likely won’t catch much ownership, and being unique is important on smaller slates. He leads the position in Pts/Sal projection.
Quick Hits
Jared Goff ($6,200): Goff and the Lions are one of two teams on the slate with something left to play for, which in and of itself is valuable. While the Lions’ playoff hopes are slim, they still need a win this week to stay alive and will be playing all-out. He’s thrown for at least 300 yards in three straight games as he tries to overcome a poor Lions defense, though that might not matter this week, since Minnesota is starting a third-string QB. Still, Lions stacks are worth considering on the abbreviated slate.
Bo Nix ($6,000): Nix is the final QB whose team is still alive, as the Broncos jockey for playoff position. They’re taking on a Chiefs team that’s been eliminated and are favored by about two scores. It’s hard to see the game script working out in a way that helps Nix here, but he trails only Prescott in median and ceiling projection.
Max Brosmer ($4,700): Brosmer is the other backup QB I’m interested in, largely thanks to a matchup with the Lions. Detroit’s full-season numbers defensively aren’t bad, but their defense is extremely depleted, with five straight opponents scoring at least 27 points. Brosmer isn’t good, but he might be good enough under the circumstances.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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