We have a special two-game slate on Saturday in Week 16, with a 5:00 p.m. start time as the Eagles face the Commanders. Following that, the Bears and Packers face off in the second half of the slate.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Jalen Hurts ($6,900) Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders (44.5 Total)
Jalen Hurts is a fairly obvious top pick at quarterback on the two-game slate. The Commanders are the only team on the slate to allow a positive Opponent Plus/Minus to the position, and they rank 29th in total points allowed to QBs, with five of their last six opponents topping 20 DraftKings points.
On top of that, the Eagles have the highest implied total on the slate, and Hurts is the only QB of the four options who provides much rushing upside. Putting that all together, it’s easy to see why Hurts has such a strong projection — and the highest projected ownership at the position.
Which makes him an interesting strategy choice for GPPs. Leaning in to roughly 50% ownership on a small slate is usually a bad idea, but he could separate enough from the pack to be a must-play at any ownership. You could also get an idea if your lineup is duped at the end of the first game and pivot to contrarian options from game two if your Hurts roster has a shot at winning.
Typically this is where I’d say Hurts needs the Commanders to push him a little in order to truly hit an upside game, and thus he should be paired with at least one Washington player. However, on a two-game slate you’re almost certainly doing that anyway out of necessity, so that’s less of a consideration here.
Personally, I’ll likely be underweight Hurts relative to the field, as I prefer the upside and price tags of the options in the later game more.
Value: Jordan Love ($5,700) Green Bay Packers (-1) at Chicago Bears (46.5 Total)
One of those being Jordan Love, who leads the slightly favored Packers into Soldier Field to take on the Bears for first place in the NFC North. This is the second meeting between these teams, with the first coming just two weeks ago, and Love threw for 234 yards and three touchdowns in the first contest.
Chicago ranks 24th in points allowed against QBs and 20th in DVOA against the pass, so it’s certainly a winnable matchup. Plus, the tighter spread in this game implies a back-and-forth contest in which both teams should be fairly aggressive through the air.
The biggest reason I’m on Love is structural, more than a player take. The Packers offense is extremely widely distributed, while the opposing Bears could be very concentrated depending on how their injury situation shakes out. That means we can roster Love and the healthy Bears wideouts and get most of the passing production in this game, while leaving a couple spots open for pass catchers from the early slate.
Not only is that build strongly correlated, but it will also be reasonably unique, with Hurts absorbing most of the QB ownership.
Quick Hits
Caleb Williams ($5,500): The logic for Williams is similar to that of Love, though we’re trading a worse matchup for a theoretically higher pass rate. He’s also cheaper and less popular, so stacking him with whichever wideouts are active this week for the Bears (all of whom are also inexpensive) is a cheap way to get correlated upside if the Bears are chasing points and can be easily stacked with the Packers’ running game.
Marcus Mariota ($5,000): Mariota has had his moments as the starter this season, but with Washington having nothing to play for and the Eagles a tough, motivated opponent, it’s hard to see him finding his way in the optimal even on a two-game slate. There’s an ownership-based case to be made for him, but the salary is loose enough that we don’t even need the savings.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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