In Week 16, the NFL starts the Saturday matchups leading up to the playoffs, which reduces the Sunday afternoon pool from 13 to 11 games this week. Seven of the 11 games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, with four games wrapping up the day in the second wave. The 11 games offer plenty of great options to include in your DFS fantasy football lineup. The matchups are mostly not divisional matchups, but there are some games with major playoff impact.
The Detroit Lions have the highest implied team total on the board as they host the Steelers, followed closely by the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. The Lions-Steelers matchup has the highest over/under on the slate, followed by the Bengals-Dolphins and Chargers-Cowboys contests. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 15. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jacoby Brissett ($5,300) Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (47.5 total)
The Cardinals and Falcons have both had disappointing seasons, but the veteran QBs on each team have posted good numbers for fantasy in the last few weeks. Brissett has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his nine games this season, averaging 18.7 DraftKings points per game. The Cardinals have been forced to have him air it out early and often, and his production has been impressive.
This week, Brissett has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback in the evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty, and Raybon, highlighted above. We’ll rely on that three-way aggregate as a general guideline in this post, but you can customize the blend to whatever works best for you if you have access to the models.
Last week, Brissett faced a tough Texans defense and still posted 21.6 DraftKings points. He threw for 249 yards and three touchdowns while completing 27 of his 40 pass attempts. With a struggling running game and usually facing a deficit, Brissett has attempted at least 40 passes in each of his last six games. He has multiple touchdown passes in eight of his nine starts, and he has produced at least 20 DraftKings points in each of his nine starts, totaling 18 touchdown passes, a touchdown run, and just six interceptions.
Brissett continues to be a great value play with so much responsibility in an offense typically playing from behind. He could get Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) back this week as well, although he’s been very productive without Harrison, leaning heavily on Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. The Cardinals have enough playmakers in the passing game to give Brissett great value potential again this week against Atlanta.
The Falcons have allowed over 240 passing yards in six of their last eight games, along with a total of 17 QB touchdowns in those eight contests. Brissett should be able to find holes to attack in Atlanta’s defense, and he has a very good chance of going over his salary-based expectations again in this matchup this week.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
DK Metcalf ($5,400) Pittsburgh Steelers (+7) at Detroit Lions (52 total)
Metcalf has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers this week, and he’ll be the focus of Pittsburgh’s passing game in a matchup that is projected to produce plenty of points.
In his first season with the Steelers, Metcalf has clearly been the go-to option for Aaron Rodgers. He leads the team with 90 targets and has hauled in 55 catches for 808 receiving yards and six touchdowns, while no other player has more than 360 receiving yards.
Last week, Metcalf caught all three of his targets for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins, giving him over 14 DraftKings points in three of his last four weeks. He had a little bit of a down stretch while the Steelers struggled a little bit from Week 9 through Week 13, but he has picked things back up in the last two weeks and has a favorable matchup in Week 16.
Metcalf and the Steelers will take on the Lions, who are dealing with multiple injuries in their secondary. The Lions gave up 261 receiving yards to the Rams’ wide receivers last week and have surrendered 20 receiver touchdowns in 14 games this season, including seven in the last four weeks.
Each of these two teams is hovering around the edge of the playoff picture, with the Steelers trying to hold off the Ravens for the division crown and the Lions outside the current playoff picture looking to battle their way into a wild card spot. Both teams need a win this week, so it should be a high-scoring contest, setting up well for Metcalf.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
RJ Harvey ($6,200) Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (45.5 total)
With J.K. Dobbins (foot) out for the rest of the regular season, rookie RJ Harvey continues to step into a huge role for the AFC-leading Broncos. He has turned in good production, while his salary has barely gone up at all, leaving him with the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projections of all running backs again in Week 16, according to the aggregate projections.
Harvey exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his three weeks since the team’s bye week. He has scored four touchdowns and totaled 175 rushing yards and 52 receiving yards in those three games, earning 21.2, 22.0, and 11.5 fantasy points. He found the end zone against the Packers’ stout defense last week, and he took a career-high 19 carries while playing 68% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Harvey did have to exit Sunday’s game in the fourth quarter with a rib injury, and even though the team announced he was questionable to return, he did not re-enter the game. His overall yardage numbers haven’t been outstanding for the most part this season, but he has been able to score touchdowns and make enough plays to be a solid value.
His 68% of snaps in Week 15 matched his season high from Week 14, even with the injury and having to sit out a series after a fumble. Despite those issues, he clearly remains the top option in the backfield rotation if he’s healthy. He didn’t manage to get as involved as a receiver this week, but he should be able to be more involved in the passing game this week as the Broncos host the Jaguars.
While the Jaguars have been good against running backs this season, they have allowed three running back touchdowns in the last four games. While he may not go off for a monster game in this important potential playoff preview, his consistent workload and continued ability to get into the end zone give him a high enough ceiling to be a strong value play once again at running back this week. Keep an eye on his injury, but if he’s ready for a full workload, he’s definitely an option to have on your radar.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Darren Waller ($3,800) Miami Dolphins (2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (50.5 total)
Waller missed the first few games of the season, looked good for a few games, but then landed on the IR with a pectoral injury. He has played limited snaps in his three games since returning to action, but he reminded everyone of his upside with a big game on Monday Night Football against the Steelers. Since the salaries for Week 16 were out before that game, his huge night isn’t factored into his very affordable salary for this week in a smash spot against Cincinnati.
Waller has six touchdowns in his seven games this season after finding the end zone twice on Monday Night on his way to a season-high 25.6 DraftKings points. He caught seven of his eight targets for 66 yards to go with his two scores. He has established himself as one of Tua Tagovailoa’s favorite options, although there could be a QB change coming in Miami.
If Zach Wilson or Quinn Ewers takes over, that could change the target distribution, but Waller would help either QB as a big target over the middle, especially in the red zone. Coach Mike McDaniel’s offense relies on the tight end down the field, and Waller’s upside at this salary is very high as a result, no matter who is under center.
Part of why Waller is such a great play is that the Bengals have been an extremely good matchup for tight ends all season, allowing 15 touchdowns in 14 games to the position, along with an average of over 90 yards per game. No other team in the NFL is giving up over 70 yards to tight ends or has allowed more than 10 tight-end touchdowns. Not only are the Bengals the best matchup in the NFL, but they’re the best matchup by such a wide margin that they give any tight end a huge boost against them.
Since Waller had such a big week last week after salaries came out and brings so much touchdown potential, he is an elite value this week and shapes up to be a top tight end for a bargain salary.
Pictured: DK Metcalf
Photo Credit: Imagn
