The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $7,700 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
With two extra games on this week’s main slate, Sunday of Week 15 features 13 games. Once again, though, Josh Allen has one of the top projections on the board. He has the highest median projection and ranks in the top two for ceiling and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections, as highlighted above. In this post, we’ll lean into that aggregate as a strong, balanced approach to the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Allen has shown off an extremely high ceiling this season, including last week when he dashed through the snow in Buffalo for 37.8 DraftKings points against the Bengals. He had over 23 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games but did have down games in his last two road contests.
This week, he’ll be on the road in New England in a critical divisional matchup. The Patriots have been a neutral matchup for QBs for the season, but they have been especially strong lately. Allen had 21.4 DraftKings points against them in their first meeting of the year, but that was in Buffalo, where Allen has been very good most of the season.
While he hasn’t been as consistent as he was in some of his best seasons, Allen’s running upside makes him a high-upside play. This week, he is also one of the top leverage plays at QB in the projections since he does come with extra risk on the road this week on such a jam-packed slate.
Top Value: C.J. Stroud vs. Arizona Cardinals – $5,200 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel
Jaxson Dart of the Giants is a great value option on DraftKings, whom I highlighted in my early look at values this week. Dart still has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks in the three-way aggregate projections on DraftKings, but he’s more expensive on FanDuel. Stroud has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings, as he and the Texans look to keep rolling against the Cardinals.
Stroud has thrown for 200+ yards in eight straight games, not counting the game he left early with a concussion. He missed three weeks with that injury, and the team got rolling with Davis Mills filling in at quarterback. Stroud stepped back in two weeks ago and led the team to wins over the Colts and Chiefs.
His numbers in those two games haven’t been great, with just 10.0 and 12.6 DraftKings points, but he showed a high ceiling earlier this season with 25.7 DraftKings points and 28.8 DraftKings points in wins over the 49ers and Ravens.
After wins in two tough matchups, Stroud should have an easier game at home against the Cardinals, who have allowed exactly three passing touchdowns in three of their last four games. Quarterbacks have 20 passing touchdowns in 13 games against the Cardinals and are averaging 237.15 passing yards per game against Arizona.
The Texans’ running backs, Woody Marks (knee) and Nick Chubb (ribs), have both missed practice this week, and if the running game is limited at all, it could put more work on Stroud, giving him a higher ceiling as a bargain play this week as the Texans look to continue their bit playoff push.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. Tennessee Titans – $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Of the top running backs, McCaffrey looks to be the best set up for a monster game. CMC has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position on both sites, and he also has the top Plus/Minus projection on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. He is in a very favorable matchup and should be set up to smash again this week.
The 49ers had their bye week last week after defeating the Browns in Cleveland in Week 13. McCaffrey scored his 13th touchdown in his 13 games this season in that matchup while running for 53 yards and adding 21 receiving yards on four catches. His 17.4 DraftKings points were solid in such a tough matchup, but he should have more opportunities for big plays this week against the Titans.
McCaffrey has shown a much higher ceiling, racking up at least 24 DraftKings points in eight of his last 11 games and posting at least 35 fantasy points in two of his last five contests, with a pair of multi-touchdown performances.
The 49ers have the second-highest implied team total on Sunday’s slate, and if they play from ahead and dominate the game flow, CMC could be very busy and get plenty of those scores. The Titans’ defense has allowed 16 running back touchdowns in their 13 games this season and is giving up an average of 97.8 rushing yards per game to the position.
McCaffrey and the 49ers are at home as they start their final push to the playoffs, and they’ll look to pick up this win before finishing the season with three matchups against potential playoff teams as they take on the Colts, Bears, and Seahawks.
CMC should have fresh legs in this favorable spot, and it is a great way to pay up for a high ceiling at running back in Week 15.
Top Value: Woody Marks vs. Arizona Cardinals – $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Marks missed practice on Wednesday but was able to return to a limited session on Thursday, so it looks like he’ll be able to play this week against the Cardinals. He has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all running backs on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, behind only CMC in the aggregate projections.
The rookie from USC has been in a timeshare with Nick Chubb (rib) this season, but Chubb (rib) wasn’t able to practice at all on Wednesday or Thursday and could be limited even if he does end up playing through the injury.
Marks had been well on his way to taking over the timeshare even before Chubb’s injury, but he got more work last week after Chubb’s exit. He took a career-high 26 carries for 68 yards and added eight yards receiving on three catches. He scored a touchdown on one of those catches, and veteran Dare Ogunbowale vultured the only other touchdown for the Texans on his lone carry of the game.
On the season, Marks has five touchdowns, with three coming as a receiver. He has proven to be a reliable pass-catcher out of the backfield, and he should continue to chip in solid PPR contributions, especially if he gets all the snaps this week against the Cardinals.
Arizona has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Running backs have scored a massive total of 18 touchdowns in 13 games, including three scores last week by the Rams’ RBs. Running backs have also been piling up plenty of yardage, averaging 107.9 rushing yards per contest to go with 29.1 receiving yards.
Marks has proven he can be the focus of the offense and grind out tough yards in difficult matchups, like he faced last week against the Chiefs. He has also shown he can post huge numbers in more favorable situations, highlighted by a home game against the Titans in week 4, when he earned 27.9 DraftKings points.
In a similar situation this week, Marks brings great value potential at his very affordable salary. It’s worth watching his practice participation and the team’s injury report for Sunday, but as long as he gets the green light, he should be a great option to include this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase at Baltimore Ravens – $9,200 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
The top three receivers have extremely close projections this week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the highest ceiling projection, Puka Nacua has the highest median projection, and Chase has the highest floor projection. All three are elite plays, but since Chase is the cheapest of the three and is in a great matchup that he has historically dominated, I’m giving him the slight edge in my picks.
He has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position in the aggregate projections on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel.
Chase and the Bengals host the Ravens, whom they just beat a few weeks ago on Thanksgiving night. Chase had seven catches on 14 targets for 110 yards in that contest, which was the first game back from an injury layoff for Joe Burrow.
Last week, he only had five catches for 44 yards and an eight-yard rush against the Bills, but he still got eight targets. This season, he’s averaging an impressive 7.6 catches on 11.6 targets per game. He has double-digit targets in six of his last eight contests and drew 14 targets from Burrow in his first matchup with the Ravens.
Chase has 20+ DraftKings points in six of his last eight games as well, and he has reached that plateau in each of his five home games this season, while averaging an impressive 30.8 DraftKings points per game at home.
In his career, Chase has scored eight touchdowns in nine games against the Ravens, while averaging 119 yards per game. He had 193 yards and two touchdowns when he faced them at home last season, and a ceiling game like that is definitely within the realm of possible outcomes in this divisional matchup on Sunday.
Top Value: Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Washington Commanders – $5,900 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel
Robinson has one of the best Plus/Minus projections of all the non-elite options at receiver this week. In the aggregate projections, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and he has the seventh-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, but it’s the third-highest of all the options with salaries under $7,500.
Robinson has a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he seems very underpriced relative to how much work he has been getting for the Giants. While helping to fill in after the season-ending injury to Malik Nabers, Robinson has had a breakout season and is averaging 13.8 DraftKings points per game with three touchdowns, 828 receiving yards, and at least six receptions in six of his last eight contests.
Last week, the Giants were on their bye week, but he posted double-digit fantasy points in each of his last two games before the bye. He had his best game of the season three weeks ago against the Lions, racking up 156 yards and a touchdown on nine catches on 14 targets. That big game came while he was working with Jameis Winston, but he has also shown a strong connection with rookie Jaxson Dart, who has given him plenty of targets all season long out of the slot.
Robinson has a 30.9% first-read share and a 25.9% target share this season, and he is averaging 63.7 receiving yards per contest. He ranks 10th in the league in receptions with 73 grabs on the year.
This week, he has a favorable matchup in his divisional clash with the Commanders, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers this season, specifically struggling against options out of the slot. The Commanders have allowed 246.9 passing yards per game, which is 30th in the NFL, and they have given up 26 passing touchdowns, which is tied for 28th in the NFL.
Building around a Dart-Robinson stack makes a lot of sense from a value perspective this week, but you can also use Wan’Dale as a stand-alone play if you’re looking to save salary at one of your receiver spots.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Houston Texans – $7,400 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
McBride remains the gold standard of tight ends this year, as the 26-year-old from Colorado State continues to draw plenty of targets each week. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel again this week, and he has the highest Plus/Minus projection at tight end on FanDuel.
McBride has at least five catches every game this season, totaling 93 catches for 937 yards and eight touchdowns. He didn’t find the end zone last week against the Rams, finishing with 10.8 DraftKings points against the Rams. Seven of his scores have come in his last eight games, though, and he has had at least nine targets in eight straight games, giving him both a good floor and a good ceiling in every matchup.
McBride is in a tougher matchup against the Texans’ strong defense this week. Houston has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends this year. They did give up a touchdown to Tyler Warren two weeks ago and two touchdowns to George Kittle in Week 8 but are only allowing 38.1 receiving yards per game to the position.
Even in that matchup, though, McBride’s consistency and excellent upside make him worth considering, since he has proven he can put together monster games when he gets enough attention from Jacoby Brissett. The tougher matchup does seem to be keeping his ownership projections low this week, so he could end up an extremely strong leverage option.
Top Value: AJ Barner vs. Indianapolis Colts – $3,200 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
The Seahawks have a home matchup against the Colts in one of the games in the later wave on Sunday. While most of the attention will be on the Colts’ plan at QB, where Philip Rivers could really start, there is some strong value potential on the other side of the matchup, especially at tight end. Seahawks TE Barner has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel, using the aggregate projections.
Barner hasn’t found the end zone in five weeks but remains involved every week. He has five scores on the season and is averaging 29.7 receiving yards on 3.1 catches per game. He has multiple catches in four straight games, dating back to his monster 10-catch performance against the Rams.
Barner is a solid bargain option with a good ceiling against the Colts, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. Tight ends have scored five touchdowns against Indianapolis this season, averaging 68.6 yards per game.
While he doesn’t have the consistency of McBride or the other expensive options, Barner does bring good upside as a go-to option for Sam Darnold, and his involvement in “The Barn Yard” (Seattle’s version of the tush push) gives him another way to potentially produce points in Week 15.
Pictured: Ja’Marr Chase
Photo Credit: Imagn
