With bye weeks over for the NFL, this Sunday presents a huge 13-game slate for Week 15. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 15.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify undervalued targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Marcus Mariota ($5,000) + Terry McLaurin ($5,400) + Theo Johnson ($3,500)
Mariota will make his seventh start of the season this Sunday with Jayden Daniels (elbow) out, and Mariota is an elite value at only $5,000. When starting this season, the ex-Titan is scoring 18.5 DraftKings PPG, most recently with 24.26 DraftKings points vs. the Broncos two weeks ago, who are a brutal matchup, as they are giving up the third-fewest yards per pass this season (5.6).
While Mariota has thrown nine touchdowns to seven picks this season, he is averaging a solid 7.2 yards per pass, and his 10.2 aDOT is the highest in the NFL. 14% of Mariota’s attempts this season have been over 20 yards, which bodes extremely well for this week’s matchup vs. the Giants, as New York is allowing the second-most completions on targets over 20 yards this season (23). The Giants have given up the seventh-most yards per pass over the last three weeks (7.1), and they have also allowed the most yards per rush in the league during this time (6.7), making this not only a great spot for Mariota as a passer but also a great spot for him as a rusher.
Mariota is averaging 5.8 carries per game in his six starts, and he is rushing the ball on 9% of his snaps this season. Mariota has seen seven red-zone carries, but he has only rushed for one touchdown. The quarterback is overdue for a rushing touchdown, and he could find the pay dirt in this terrific matchup vs. the Giants.
With McLaurin back to full strength, he is the best player to stack with Mariota. McLaurin is being targeted on 25% of his routes this season, including nine targets over 20 yards and seven red-zone targets in just six games. McLaurin is averaging a 14.7 aDOT, and he is scoring 15.8 DraftKings PPG in the three starts he and Mariota have made together this season, including a season-best 22.6 DraftKings points vs. the Broncos two weeks ago, which, as mentioned above, is one of the worst matchups in the league. Now, McLaurin meets a Giants’ defense that struggles mightily against the deep ball, and the wideout should connect with Mariota on a few long passes in this spot.
On the other side, Johnson is an excellent bring-back play for Commanders stacks. Washington’s defense has been terrible through the air this season, allowing the most yards per pass in the league (8.1), and to tight ends, the Commanders are giving up the second-most yards per catch (9.0) and the second-most touchdowns (9). This season, Johnson is handling a 17.4% target share, and he is leading the Giants with 12 red-zone targets. Johnson has scored double-digit DraftKings points in six of his 13 games, and at only $3,500 — which is a notable drop from his $4,100 salary two weeks ago — Johnson is a top-five value on the slate among skill players in our projections.
Johnson is expected to be a popular play this weekend, but both Mariota and McLaurin are slated for single-digit ownership in our projections. Thus, this game stack will be featured in a low percentage of lineups.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
RJ Harvey ($6,000)
After being held in check in his first start after J.K. Dobbins (knee) was placed on IR, Harvey has been outstanding in his last two, scoring 21.2 DraftKings points vs. the Commanders and then 22.0 DraftKings points vs. the Raiders.
With Dobbins inactive for the last three, Harvey is leading the Broncos with 13.7 carries per game and a 58.7% snap rate. The rookie has seen 11 red-zone carries in these three starts, and as a receiver, Harvey is running a route on 45% of his team’s dropbacks and garnering a target on a strong 22% of those routes, including three red-zone targets.
Harvey was a second-round pick in this past NFL draft, and he has been extremely efficient this season, ranking second in DraftKings points per snap among running backs (0.48), trailing only Jahmyr Gibbs.
Despite all these great things to say about Harvey, he is only slated to be around 8% owned this Sunday per our projections. Why? Because Harvey is facing a Packers’ defense that most are scared of. Green Bay is a great defense, but it has actually been a middle-of-the-pack team at defending the rush recently, with the Packers giving up the 14th-most yards per rush over the last three weeks (4.3).
At only $6,000, we shouldn’t be afraid to roster an ascending Harvey in this spot, and he is one of the best GPP plays on the board for this large slate.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
A.J. Brown ($6,800)
After complaining about his lack of targets, Brown has been fed the rock, with double-digit targets in four straight games, translating into 24.3 DraftKings PPG during this span. Over this stretch, the receiver ranks second in the league in target share (35.1%), and he has seen six red-zone targets. Furthermore, Brown is averaging 2.21 yards per route run, which is a huge difference from the 1.59 he averaged in the first nine games of the season.
Things have changed dramatically for Brown, and he appears to be playing at an elite level again. Up next, Brown is going against a Raiders’ defense that is allowing the second-highest completion percentage (68.7%) and the sixth-most touchdowns to receivers (15).
As losers of three in a row, this is a must-win for the Eagles, and they carry a healthy 25-point implied team total. Brown should continue to be a major factor in this crucial tilt, and he is a standout play for GPPs, with our projections forecasting him to be only around 10% owned on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Dalton Kincaid ($4,500)
Kincaid (hamstring) made his return from a three-game absence last Sunday vs. the Bengals, and he was crucial in the big win for the Bills, catching four of his five targets for 41 yards and a touchdown, resulting in 14.1 DraftKings points.
Kincaid is averaging 13.1 DraftKings PPG in his nine starts this season, and while he is only running a route on 53% of his team’s dropbacks, Josh Allen focuses on getting Kincaid the ball when he is on the field, with the tight end seeing a target on 24% of his routes, including five targets over 20 yards and four red-zone targets.
Kincaid leads all tight ends in yards per route run (2.87) and knows how to make the most of his playing time, as he leads his position in DraftKings points per snap, and it’s not particularly close. Kincaid is producing 0.45 DraftKings points per snap, and Trey McBride ranks second at 0.29.
The Bills are visiting the Patriots this Sunday in a huge AFC East matchup. Buffalo will stay alive for the division title with a win over New England, and this game has shootout potential, presenting the third-highest total on the slate (49 points). The Bills carry a 26-point implied team total, and the Patriots are giving up the sixth-most catches to tight ends this season (79). Kincaid scored 19.8 DraftKings points when these rivals met in Week 5, and we could see another big performance from him this Sunday. Not only is Kincaid underpriced for his upside at only $4,500, but he is expected to come with minimal ownership according to our projections.
Pictured: A.J. Brown
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
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