The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.
In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Jacoby Brissett ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Brissett continues to prove why he’s one of the NFL’s best backup quarterbacks. His play hasn’t led to many wins for the Cardinals, but he’s put together some excellent performances for fantasy players. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight starts, scoring at least 20.76 DraftKings points in each contest.
Brissett is coming off a historic performance in Week 11. He attempted 57 passes, and he completed an NFL record 47 of them. While that stands out as a clear outlier, volume hasn’t been an issue for Brissett as a starter. He’s averaged more than 42 pass attempts per game, and he’s thrown at least 36 times in all but one contest.
Brissett complements his passing production with just a smidge of rushing upside. He’s tallied 78 yards in his five starts, and he’s added one score. He’s also thrown two touchdowns in each start, and from Week 6 on, he’s the No. 4 QB in terms of fantasy points per game.
Despite all the positives working in Brissett’s favor, he continues to be priced at a discount on DraftKings. His $5,300 salary comes with a 93% Bargain Rating, and he draws a favorable matchup vs. the Jaguars in Week 12. They’re allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, giving Brissett an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.8. It’s the second-best mark at the position in our NFL Models.
Ultimately, Brissett is the clear top choice if paying down at QB. He leads all passers in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and he’s second at the position on FanDuel.
Drake Maye ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
Maye has taken a clear leap in his second professional season. He’s third at the position in fantasy points per game, trailing only the elite duo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. He’s also propelled the Patriots to an 11-2 record, putting him squarely in the MVP conversation.
Maye has excelled in the air and on the ground this season. He’s averaging 9.41 adjusted yards per attempt, which is the top mark in football. He’s also racked up just over 25 rushing yards per game to go along with two scores.
However, Maye has seen a slight downtick in production recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games on DraftKings, though he’s still scored at least 18.36 DraftKings points in two of them. His only truly disappointing showing during that stretch was last week vs. the Jets, which took place on Thursday Night Football. Thursday night games are always a bit weird, and TreVeyon Henderson ran for two of the team’s three scores.
Maye is in a phenomenal spot to bounce back in Week 12. He’s taking on the Bengals, who have been a fantasy goldmine for their opponents this season. They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, and the Patriots’ 29.25 implied team total ranks second on the slate.
Maye boasts the top ceiling projection at the position, and he ranks third in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. That’s a nice combination.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Patrick Mahomes ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
Mahomes is priced right in the same ballpark as Maye, and separating the two passers is pretty difficult. Mahomes has been slightly better for most of the season, but Maye has the superior matchup. Maye has a slight edge from a ceiling standpoint, but Mahomes has a better median projection and a cheaper price tag.
Mahomes is also projected for less ownership across the industry, which makes him an interesting pivot for tournaments. While facing the Colts isn’t quite as appealing as a matchup vs. the Bengals, it’s still a great spot. This game has a total north of 50 points, while the Chiefs are listed as just 3.5-point home favorites.
Mahomes has only made three starts as a home favorite so far this season, and he’s crushed in each of them. He racked up 31.48 DraftKings points vs. the Lions, 26.24 vs. the Raiders, and 24.96 vs. the Commanders. The result is a perfect 100% Consistency Rating and a +5.76 average Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool).
Jared Goff ($6,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
The Lions have the potential to do some serious offensive damage this week. They’re implied for a slate-high 31.5 points vs. the Giants, and they’re not afraid to run up the score against inferior opponents. The Lions are also desperate for a win. They’re coming off an embarrassing performance last week vs. the Eagles, and they’d be out of the playoffs if they started today.
That gives Goff plenty of upside. It’s possible that the Lions are simply able to dominate this game with their rushing attack – the Giants are dead last in rush defense EPA – but Goff has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.38 as a home favorite since joining the Lions.
Ultimately, no QB is showing up in the DraftKings optimal lineup simulations more frequently in Sim Labs. His ownership projection is also 3.6% below his optimal lineup rate, the largest gap at the position.
Jalen Hurts ($6,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
It’s hard to get too excited about the Eagles’ offense at the moment. They’ve still won a lot of games this season, but it’s due primarily to their elite defense. They’re merely 25th in yards and 16th in points per game, both of which represent significant drops compared to last season.
That said, Hurts has still been relatively efficient as a passer. He has 16 touchdown passes compared to just one interception, and he’s averaging roughly the same amount of passing yards per game. As a result, his 8.44 adjusted yards per attempt would represent a new career high.
The big difference has been his production on the ground. His rushing yards per game have dipped from 42.0 last year to just 26.5 this season, and he’s punched in just six touchdowns through 10 games. He had 14 scores in 15 games last year, so he’s scoring at a much lower frequency.
Still, Hurts ranks sixth at the position in terms of fantasy points per game. Even though the Eagles’ offense has struggled overall, Hurts has still typically gotten the job done for fantasy purposes.
Hurts has been priced down to just $6,600 for his matchup vs. the Cowboys, and he has plenty of buy-low appeal at that figure. He leads all QBs with a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and no team has allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Hurts ranks second among QBs in optimal lineup rate on DraftKings, so he’s an excellent buy-low target.
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Trevor Lawrence ($5,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Lawrence shouldn’t garner a ton of attention this week. He hasn’t had a particularly impressive season, and his matchup vs. the Cardinals is merely average. They’ve allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, though they’ve been a bit friendlier in that department of late.
However, Lawrence is extremely affordable at $5,100, and the Jaguars are implied for a respectable 25.0 points in this spot. That’s a solid combination, and players with comparable marks in both departments have historically exceeded value. Lawrence ranks fourth at the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Daniel Jones ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
“Indiana Jones” has cooled off just a bit after his torrid start to the year, but he’s still been an excellent option for fantasy purposes. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, with an overseas contest two weeks ago serving as the lone exception.
Jones is coming off a bye last week, and he faces an important matchup this week vs. the Chiefs. The Colts are fighting for the top spot in the AFC, and a win over the defending conference champs would send a major statement.
The selling point here is the expected game environment. This contest features a total of 50.0 points, while the spread sits at just over a field goal. That suggests a back-and-forth affair with plenty of offense on both sides. Jones has displayed upside as a passer and a runner this season, so he has multiple paths to relevance on this slate. He’s another QB whose projected ownership is lower than his optimal lineup rate across the industry.
Joe Burrow ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
There’s a chance that Burrow returns to the lineup in Week 12. He’s officially listed as questionable, and if he’s back in the fold, he’d be worth considering at $7,500 on FanDuel. That represents a significant discount for a QB of Burrow’s caliber, and he leads the position with an 85% Bargain Rating.
The Patriots aren’t the easiest of matchups, but they’ve been weaker against the pass than the run this season. They’re fifth in rush defense EPA, but they dip to 13th vs. the pass. The Bengals have aired the ball out a lot with Joe Flacco under center, so there’s no reason to expect they wouldn’t do the same with Burrow.
Burrow played in nine games with a comparable FanDuel price tag last season, and he averaged an elite +10.99 Plus/Minus. He averaged more than 27.5 fantasy points in those outings, and he eclipsed 30 FanDuel points in four of his last five. If he’s active, he’s the definition of a high-risk, high-reward GPP play.
Pictured: Jacoby Brissett
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
