Week 11 NFL DFS RB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.

However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Chase Brown ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

It has not been a great season for Brown. He emerged as one of the league’s biggest bell-cows down the stretch last season, garnering a massive workload for the Bengals following the injury to Zack Moss. He had an 85% snaps share, 92% carry share, and 13% target share from Week 9 through 17, and he averaged better than 20 PPR points per game during that stretch. It was good enough for an RB5 finish during that time frame.

Brown was expected to keep that momentum going into this season, but he’s had to overcome a brutal set of circumstances. The Bengals’ offensive line has been dreadful – they’re 29th in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate and 31st in PFF’s run blocking grade – and the offense has been less effective following the injury to Joe Burrow. It has resulted in Brown averaging a paltry 3.9 yards per carry, along with just three touchdowns.

The good news is that the Bengals’ offense has shown major signs of life following the addition of Joe Flacco. Brown has been one of the biggest beneficiaries. He had a season-high 108 rushing yards vs. the Steelers three games ago, and he’s followed that up with back-to-back games of at least 19.2 PPR points. Brown finished as a top-six RB in both of those outings.

Brown also saw a big spike in usage in his last outing. He was on the field for 95% of the team’s offensive snaps, and he handled 79% of their carries with a 30% target share. It was his best workload of the season, thanks primarily to his 14 targets, eight catches, and 75 receiving yards.

Brown has already had one strong showing vs. the Steelers this season, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again in Week 11. This game has the highest total on the slate at 49.0 points, and Brown stands out as massively underpriced based on his last workload. He leads all running backs in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where his $5,700 salary comes with a 95% Bargain Rating.

Jaylen Warren ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

On the other side of that matchup, Warren also stands out as underpriced. After a brief moment where it appeared like Kenneth Gainwell might force a committee, Warren is back to being the Steelers’ unquestioned top runner. He’s not a huge threat in the passing game, but Warren has handled 80% of the team’s carries over their past four games. That’s the third-best mark over that time frame, trailing only Jonathan Taylor and Quinshon Judkins.

Warren had 88% of the team’s carries last week vs. the Chargers, and now he gets a dream matchup vs. the Bengals. Their defense has been abysmal all season, and they’re 31st in the league in rush defense EPA. They’ve also allowed the most PPR points per game to opposing RBs by a mile, giving Warren a massive +8.1 Opponent Plus/Minus. That’s the clear best mark on the slate, with the next best matchup resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +3.3.

Warren torched the Bengals for 22.8 DraftKings points in their first matchup, despite failing to score a single touchdown. He had 127 rushing yards to go along with four receptions and 31 receiving yards. That game was played in Cincinnati, while this time, the Steelers are listed as home favorites. RBs tend to perform well in that split, and Warren has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.01 in two starts as a home favorite this season (per the Trends tool). The Steelers also have the top implied team total on the slate, so Warren stands out as an elite option in all formats. He leads the position in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus, and he has the second-highest optimal lineup rate on that site.

R.J. Harvey ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)

Harvey has had a somewhat quiet rookie season. He was selected in the second round of the NFL Draft, but he’s struggled to earn touches in the Broncos’ backfield. JK Dobbins has been the team’s clear top early-down runner, while Tyler Badie has handled most of the third-down work. Harvey has shown some ability as both a runner and a receiver, but his opportunities have been limited.

That figures to change this week. Dobbins went down with an injury in the team’s last outing, and it’s possible that he lands on IR before the team takes the field in Week 11. Harvey should move into the starting spot, and he has the potential to post his best utilization marks of the season.

Harvey’s upside as a pass-catcher is particularly appealing. He’s been targeted on 23% of his routes run, which is an excellent mark for a running back. With more snaps and routes run, he has the potential to be a true difference maker in that department.

Harvey could also find some success as a runner vs. the Chiefs. They’re merely 25th in rush defense EPA, and they’re dead last in Run Stuff Win Rate.

Harvey stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,800 salary comes with a 72% Bargain Rating. That’s the second-best mark for RBs priced above $5,600.

Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Christian McCaffrey ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

McCaffrey is coming off a rare dud game in Week 10. The 49ers were absolutely demolished by the Rams, which limited McCaffrey to just 12 rushing attempts. He still provided his usual elite work through the air, but he ultimately finished with just 17.6 DraftKings points. That’s not terrible, but it wasn’t enough to pay off his massive salary.

McCaffrey has now posted a negative Plus/Minus in two of his past three games, but there is absolutely zero cause for concern. He remains the clear top receiving back in football, leading the position with a 25% target share for the year. He’s averaged 6.9 receptions and 69.2 receiving yards per game, which has propelled him to the No. 2 spot in PPR points per game at running back. Only Taylor has been better.

The game script for McCaffrey figures to be much better in Week 11. The 49ers will get starting QB Brock Purdy back in the lineup for the first time since Week 4, and the team is listed as three-point road favorites vs. the Cardinals. Their 25.75 implied team total is ultimately tied for the third-best mark on the slate.

McCaffrey has the second-highest DraftKings optimal lineup rate, where his receiving skill set is far more valuable. His projected ownership is also lower than his optimal lineup rate, making him a fantastic choice for tournaments.

Rico Dowdle ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)

Dowdle has taken over as the Panthers’ clear-cut top running back, and he has absolutely thrived in that role. He’s now started four games, and he’s averaged 143 rushing yards in those outings. He did struggle a bit last week vs. the Saints, but he still managed to return positive value with 15.3 DraftKings points.

The Panthers’ offense has had some issues this season, but they can run the ball as well as anyone. Their offensive line has the sixth-best PFF run blocking grade, and Dowdle has averaged an excellent 5.3 yards per attempt behind that unit. He’s also eighth in the league in broken tackles.

Dowdle draws a solid matchup this week vs. the Falcons. Their pass defense has been excellent this season, but they’re merely 28th in rush defense EPA. They’ve also allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to opposing RBs. With the Panthers already struggling to throw the ball, expect to see a heavy dose of Dowdle as long as this game stays competitive.

Josh Jacobs ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel)

Jacobs hasn’t been particularly efficient this season, but he has some of the best volume in the league. He’s handled 71% of the Packers’ designed rushing attempts, including 88% in Week 10. He also has a solid 13% target share, and he’s had at least 20 opportunities in seven of nine games.

Jacobs’ biggest fantasy asset is his ability around the goal line. He has 13 carries from inside the five-yard line this season, which is tied for the second-most at the position. He’s punched in seven touchdowns on those opportunities, and no RB has scored from that area more frequently. Jacobs has 11 touchdowns overall this season, which trails only Taylor at the position.

Jacobs gets a phenomenal matchup this week vs. the Giants, who are dead last in rush defense EPA. They’ve allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs, and Jacobs should get plenty of opportunities to take advantage of this unit. The Packers are listed as seven-point road favorites, and Jacobs has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.36 in seven games with the Packers as a favorite of at least a touchdown.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Bijan Robinson ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)

Robinson is undoubtedly one of the best running backs in football, but Tyler Allgeier will not stop being a thorn in his side. Allgeier has siphoned off 31% of the rushing attempts in Atlanta this season, and he’s vultured Robinson numerous times around the goal line. He scored twice last week vs. the Colts in Berlin, while Robinson was limited to 84 scoreless yards. It was Robinson’s third straight game with a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

That could make Robinson a bit undervalued this week. His 19% optimal lineup rate on DraftKings is the fifth-best at the position in Sim Labs, but he’s projected for closer to 15% ownership. That’s one of the largest discrepancies at running back.

Robinson doesn’t need 80+% of the touches to do a lot of damage. He’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry this season, and he’s also one of the top receiving threats at the position. He has a 19% target share for the year, which trails only McCaffrey and De’Von Achane.

D’Andre Swift ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)

Swift has quietly been one of the most consistent backs in fantasy this season. He started the year with a poor showing vs. the Vikings, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in every game since then. He’s also been far more efficient as a runner in recent weeks, averaging a massive 6.3 yards per attempt over his past four outings.

Swift missed the team’s contest in Week 9, but he returned to the lineup last week vs. the Giants. Kyle Monangai dominated in Swift’s absence, but Swift has managed to maintain the top spot in the team’s backfield. He had 62% of the team’s rushing attempts vs. New York, and he also had a season-high 21% target share.

As long as Swift can keep Monangai at bay, he’s simply too cheap at his current price tag. The matchup between the Bears and Vikings also figures to be one of the best of the week for fantasy purposes, with its 48.5-point total ranking tied for second on the main slate.

Kimani Vidal ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

The Chargers are still without top RB Omarion Hampton, though it’s possible he returns following the team’s Week 12 bye. That makes this possibly our last opportunity to use Vidal. Vidal has ultimately been a very solid option as a starter, ranking 11th at the position in fantasy points from Weeks 6 through 10 (13.8 PPR points per game).

Vidal gave fantasy managers a scare in Week 9, when he dipped to just a 48% carry share vs. the Titans. However, he returned to an 89% mark in Week 10, and he was on the field for 94% of the team’s offensive snaps. Jaret Patterson had just a 4% snap share in that contest, so Vidal absolutely dominated the opportunities.

He responded with 17.8 DraftKings points vs. the Steelers, and there’s no reason he can’t do it again in Week 10. The Jaguars have been tough on opposing RBs this season, but they’re merely middle of the pack in terms of rush defense EPA.

Woody Marks ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)

The Texans made a crazy comeback against the Jaguars last week, outscoring Jacksonville 26-0 in the fourth quarter to secure a seven-point win. Marks took over as the Texans’ clear top RB option in that outing, racking up a 78% snap share and 70% carry share. He also had 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line, and he responded with a positive Plus/Minus for the third time in the past four weeks.

If Marks can continue to grow his lead over Nick Chubb, he has the potential to be an excellent value in Week 11 vs. the Titans. They’re 25th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to the position. Marks has the fourth-best projected Plus/Minus at RB on DraftKings, yet he’s projected for less than 10% ownership.

Pictured: Bijan Robinson
Photo Credit: Imagn