On the menu for Sunday is a 10-game main slate on DraftKings. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 10.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Lamar Jackson ($6,800) + Zay Flowers ($5,900) + Justin Jefferson ($7,800)
While all three of Jackson, Flowers, and Jefferson are expected to be popular options this week, a low percentage of lineups should feature this trio together. All three of these players are very underpriced right now, and this Ravens vs. Vikings matchup in a dome in Minnesota is one of the best games of the week to target. This matchup’s total is the third highest on the slate (49 points), and Baltimore is only favored by four points.
Jackson made his return from a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury last week, and he torched the Dolphins for 25.5 DraftKings points. Jackson’s salary on DraftKings hasn’t moved since this outing, and his $6,800 price tag is criminally low for the dual-threat quarterback, who was priced over $8,000 for most of last season.
Jackson has been outstanding in his five starts this season, leading all quarterbacks in DraftKings points per dropback by a solid margin. Jackson is averaging 0.83 DraftKings points per dropback, while Josh Allen ranks second at 0.72. Jackson’s passing has been elite, as he ranks second in yards per pass (9.1) while throwing 14 touchdowns to just one pick. As a rusher, Jackson is averaging 5.2 carries per game, and he has three red zone attempts in just five games. The Vikings’ defense has been dreadful through the air recently, allowing the second most yards per pass in the NFL in their last three games (9.0), and Jackson has 30 DraftKings point upside in this spot.
With Jackson healthy and Minnesota’s secondary a mess right now, Flowers should flourish. In the five games he has played with Jackson this season, Flowers is leading the Ravens with a 25.6% target share, is averaging an elite 2.69 YPPR, and has seen seven targets over 20 yards, which bodes extremely well for this matchup with the Vikings. This season, no defense in the NFL is allowing a higher completion percentage on targets over 20 yards than Minnesota (73.3%), and as a deep threat, Flowers could go nuts in this perfect matchup.
The Vikings should be in a negative game script as four-point underdogs with their defense struggling, and Jefferson should have a big fantasy performance as his team attempts to keep up with Baltimore. Jefferson ranks eighth in target share this season (30%) and 13th in YPPR (2.29). The superstar has garnered 13 targets over 20 yards and eight red zone targets, and this Ravens defense he is going against is giving up the sixth most touchdowns (10) and seventh most catches to receivers this season (111). Jefferson has historically been a more productive player on his home turf, and when competing as a home underdog, he owns a career average of 22 DraftKings PPG (12 games), via the Trends Tool.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
D’Andre Swift ($6,100)
Swift is expected to return this Sunday after missing one week with a groin injury—he practiced fully Thursday—and many have quickly forgotten about the veteran back after Kyle Monagai rushed for 173 yards with Swift inactive last week. Yes, Monagai’s performance was impressive, but it did come against a pitiful Bengals defense that is yielding the second most yards per rush this season (5.4). Monagai likely earned himself some more work going forward, but this Bears backfield was already a timeshare to begin with, and Swift should still lead the way in touches.
Prior to missing one game, Swift was on fire, scoring 20.9 DraftKings PPG in his previous four games. Swift has cracked double-digit DraftKings points in all but one game this season, and he ranks 13th in DraftKings points per snap among running backs (0.43). Swift is averaging 4.6 YPC this season, and usage-wise, he is leading Chicago with 14.3 carries per game and a 69.4% rush share, while logging 60.7% of the snaps. Swift ranks 10th in the league in red zone carries (22), and his pass-catching role has also been immense, with him handling a 10% target share and a 50% route rate.
Swift is in a beautiful spot vs. the Giants this Sunday, and he should remind everyone that he is the best fantasy asset from this Chicago backfield with a great performance. New York is giving up the most yards per rush this season (5.5), and the Bears present a 25.5-point implied team total as 4.5-point home favorites. At -120 on DraftKings Sportsbook, Swift carries the best odds to score a touchdown for this game, and he is slated to be only around 10% owned on DraftKings according to our projections.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Tez Johnson ($4,500)
With Mike Evans missing essentially the last five games—he only played 14 snaps in Week 7 before breaking his collarbone—Johnson has been a solid fantasy asset, averaging 9.8 DraftKings PPG, including a season-high 15.8 DraftKings points vs. the Lions. During this stretch, Johnson has seen a target on 18% of his routes while running a route on 62% of his team’s dropbacks. Additionally, Johnson has seen five targets over 20 yards and has an 11.3 aDOT.
Johnson will continue to handle this role with Evans still out this Sunday, and coming off their bye, the Buccaneers are hosting the Patriots, who have been a pass funnel this season. New England is allowing the second fewest yards per rush (3.6) but the eighth most yards per pass (7.0). Opposing offenses are forced to throw when facing the Patriots, and as a result, they are yielding the sixth most touchdowns to receivers (10).
Johnson scoring his fourth touchdown of the season is a realistic outcome in this spot, and he is a great, cheap flier to take in GPPs this week. According to our projections, Johnson is expected to be only around 9% owned on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Dalton Kincaid ($4,300)
Projected for around 4% ownership on DraftKings and at only $4,300, it’s hard not to love Kincaid this week. The 26-year-old just lit the Chiefs up for 25.1 DraftKings points last week, which is the fourth time in seven starts this season that he has scored at least 14 DraftKings points. Kincaid posted 17.6 DraftKings points vs. the Dolphins in Week 3, and he faces the division rival again this Sunday.
Miami is the worst defense in the league this season, and one of its main issues is slowing down tight ends. The Dolphins are giving up the second most touchdowns (6), the third most catches (57), and the third most yards to tight ends (614).
Kincaid is only running a route on 52% of his team’s dropbacks this season, but he is seeing a target on a team-best 24% of those routes, including four targets over 20 yards and three red zone targets. Among tight ends, Kincaid comfortably ranks first in YPPR (2.96) and DraftKings points per snap (0.47). The Bills carry the highest implied team total on the slate vs. Miami (30 points), and Kincaid brings tremendous upside relative to his cheap $4,300 salary.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
Pictured: Lamar Jackson
Photo Credit: Imagn
