Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Tucker Kraft ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
The past few years have felt like a changing of the guard at the tight end position. Some of the guys that we’ve leaned on for production in years past have gone by the wayside, replaced by a new crop of talented youngsters. Each of the top four scorers at the position this season is in their fourth season or less, with the ageless Travis Kelce rounding out the top five.
Kraft has moved to the top of the standings following a monster performance in Week 8. He racked up seven catches, 143 yards, and two touchdowns, good for 32.8 DraftKings points.
Kraft has been dominating as a touchdown scorer all season, but he’s starting to get there from a volume standpoint as well. He has 19 total targets over his past two games, which is just three fewer than he had in his first five games combined. Kraft has posted an excellent 27% target share in those outings, and he’s established himself as the clear No. 1 option in Green Bay’s passing attack.
The Packers get a fantastic matchup in Week 9 vs. the Panthers. They’re currently implied for 28.5 points, which is tied for the second-highest mark on the main slate. The Panthers have also struggled to defend opposing tight ends this season, allowing the ninth-most PPR points per game to the position.
Ultimately, Kraft’s salary has yet to catch up to his recent production. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a 99% Bargain Rating. He leads all tight ends in projected Plus/Minus on that site, and he’s first at the position in optimal lineup rate across the industry.
Theo Johnson ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
If you’re looking to go cheap at tight end on DraftKings, Johnson looks like your best bet. He’s way down at $3,500, and he’s displayed nice chemistry with Jaxson Dart. He’s posted a 20% target share over his past five outings, and he’s eighth at the position in PPR points per game during that stretch.
Johnson has also seen his role expand in recent weeks. He owns a 97% route participation in back-to-back games, which is an elite mark at tight end. Trey McBride leads the position in that metric for the year, and he’s at just 93%.
Johnson could also pick up a few additional targets following the injury to Cam Skattebo. Skattebo was used frequently by the Giants in the passing attack, garnering a 16% target share from Week 3 on. Tyrone Tracy hasn’t been targeted nearly as frequently, so some of those short-area throws could go to Johnson instead.
Finally, the Giants draw an excellent matchup vs. the 49ers. San Francisco’s overall numbers aren’t terrible this season, but their defense is in shambles after losing Fred Warner to injury. He’s the glue that holds everything together, and without him, the 49ers surrendered 475 yards and 26 points to the Texans last week.
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Tyler Warren ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
No one had the Colts being the best offense in football on their bingo card this season. That said, they’re No. 1 in the league in points, yards, and EPA per play. Much of that stems from Jonathan Taylor, but the passing attack has also had plenty of success. They’re third in the league in dropback EPA, while Daniel Jones leads the league with a 56.3% passing Success Rate.
When the Colts have taken to the air, Warren has been one of their most frequent targets. He owns a 21% target share for the year, and he’s racked up 30% of the team’s end zone targets.
The Colts are implied for another 27.0 points this week – the fourth-highest mark on the main slate – and the Steelers have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing TEs. Warren checks in slightly behind Kraft in terms of ceiling projection, but he could be looking at a huge game.
Brock Bowers ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
Entering this season, most would have said that Bowers was the best tight end in football. He put together a historic campaign as a rookie, racking up 112 receptions, 1,194 yards, and five touchdowns. He’s the only TE in NFL history with more than 80 catches and 1,000 yards in his first professional season, and he cleared both of those bars pretty easily.
Unfortunately, Bowers has been hampered by injuries all year. He’s missed the team’s past three games, but he should be much closer to 100% following the team’s Week 8 bye. He was a full participant at practice all week, and he should return to being the focal point of the Raiders’ passing attack.
As a rookie, Bowers ranked second among tight ends with a 26% target share. From Week 5 on – after the team cut bait with Davante Adams – that figure jumped to 28%. If Bowers can get anywhere close to that mark moving forward, he has the potential to go right back to being one of the best tight ends in fantasy.
It makes Bowers an extremely appealing buy-low candidate, especially at just $5,000 on DraftKings. It results in an 89% Bargain Rating, and he has the fourth-highest optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
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George Kittle ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Kittle is not expected to garner a ton of ownership this week. He’s checking in with an ownership projection of around 7.5% on DraftKings, despite the fact that the 49ers are still pretty shorthanded. They’re going to be without Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk once again this week, while Jauan Jennings continues to be hampered by a multitude of injuries.
The big reason for that is that Kittle simply hasn’t done much since returning to the lineup. He had a zero-catch performance in his first game back, and he had just five targets in his second. He did manage to score a touchdown, which salvaged his fantasy stock for the week, but his target share is a paltry 12% in his two games back.
Still, Kittle has a proven track record, and there’s no reason to expect his struggles to continue. He’s been on the field extensively the past two weeks, averaging an 89% route participation, so he should still have plenty of opportunities to make plays.
Despite his meager ownership projection, Kittle ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. If he’s anywhere close to 100% healthy, $4,800 is simply too cheap a price tag. Kittle has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.72 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Orande Gadsden ($5,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
Gadsden is another potential young stud at the position. The rookie started the year in a reserve role, but he has steadily taken over as the team’s starting tight end. His route participation has increased each subsequent week, culminating with a 91% mark last week vs. the Vikings.
Gadsden is also making the most of his opportunities. He’s turned in back-to-back top-three finishes at the position in PPR scoring, and he was TE12 three weeks ago. He has a healthy 20% target share over his past three contests, and he’s also able to make some plays downfield. Gadsden ranks second at the position in air yards share over his past three contests, so he brings plenty of upside to the table.
Sam LaPorta ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
LaPorta stands out as one of the most undervalued options at the position in Sim Labs. His optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
LaPorta is a bit of a boom-or-bust player. He plays for one of the deepest offenses in football, so he can occasionally be the forgotten man. That happened in his last outing, when he finished with just 4.5 PPR points vs. the Buccaneers.
However, playing for an elite offense also brings plenty of upside. LaPorta found the end zone in each of his two previous games, and he finished each of those weeks as TE4.
Now, the Lions get a matchup vs. a reeling Vikings’ defense. They’re dead last in pass defense EPA over the past three weeks, and they allowed Gadsden to go off at tight end in Week 8. LaPorta is very reasonably priced for the amount of ceiling he brings to the table.
Pictured: Tucker Kraft
Photo Credit: Imagn
