Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

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Kyle Monangai ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
The Bears started the year with D’Andre Swift operating as their clear lead running back. However, he failed to take the job and run with it. He allowed Monangai to earn a larger share of the touches as the season progressed, culminating with at least 45% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks.
Now, Swift has been ruled out for Week 9, and the door is open for Monangai to seize the starting job by the reins. He’s fared well in his limited opportunities this season, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and 10.2 yards per reception. He should handle most of the RB responsibilities vs. the Bengals, with Roschon Johnson serving as the backup.
It’s a phenomenal spot for a Monangai breakout. The Bengals have been dreadful defensively all season, both against the run and the pass. They’re 30th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed a whopping 33.3 PPR points per game to opposing RBs. That’s the worst mark in football by a wide margin, and Monangai unsurprisingly leads the slate with a +5.6 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Despite being without Swift and receiver Luther Burden, the Bears still have plenty of offensive upside in this contest. They’re listed as 2.5-point road favorites in a game with a 51-point total, giving them an implied team total of 26.75.
Ultimately, Monangai leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on a slate that is stacked with value options. He stands out as one of the best values we’ve seen all season, so he’s really tough to avoid at his current price tag across the industry.

TreVeyon Henderson ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Henderson also has the potential to take over as his team’s starter this week. He’s been invisible for most of the year, but he put together his most impressive performance of the season last week. He turned 10 carries into 75 rushing yards, finally putting on display the talent that led to him being drafted 38th overall.
Rhamondre Stevenson has served as the Pats’ top running back all season, especially following the injury to Antonio Gibson. However, Stevenson has now picked up an injury of his own, and he’s been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup vs. the Falcons.
Henderson probably won’t serve as a true bell-cow back vs. Atlanta. Terrell Jennings is also around, and he handled 19% of the team’s carries in Week 7. He could see a slight uptick in that department, but Henderson still figures to get most of the opportunities.
Henderson has game-changing speed at running back, ranking in the 92nd percentile for 40-yard dash time. He doesn’t need a ton of carries to potentially rip off a long touchdown. We haven’t seen any of that during the regular season, but he did take his first touch to the house during the preseason:
Perhaps with more consistent opportunities, we’ll finally see his explosiveness in a game that actually matters.
The Falcons’ defense isn’t an ideal matchup, but they haven’t been nearly as good against the run as they have against the pass. They’re merely 24th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve surrendered at least 134 rushing yards in four straight games. Add in the fact that the Pats are solid home favorites, and Henderson gets the No. 2 spot at RB among the value options.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
With two cheaper options, we can comfortably afford to pay up for a stud third running back. McCaffrey stands out as the clear top choice in our NFL Models. He checks in at a pretty significant discount compared to Jonathan Taylor, yet he has a higher ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
McCaffrey is coming off a rare down game last week vs. the Texans. It was his first game all season with a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Prior to that, he had scored at least 22.7 DraftKings points in all seven games, including a massive 42.1 DraftKings points in Week 7.
Struggling against the Texans is definitely excusable. They’ve been the top defense in football this season in terms of EPA per play, and they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per game to the position.
This week’s matchup should be significantly easier. They’re taking on the Giants in New York, and Big Blue ranks dead last in rush defense EPA. They’ve allowed the seventh most PPR points per game to opposing RBs, and Saquon Barkley was poised for a monster performance against them before getting hurt last week. Instead, the Eagles had two different backs with more than 100 rushing yards.
Of course, McCaffrey’s bread and butter is his work as a receiver, and he should still see plenty of action there, too. The team is still playing without Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk, and before last week, McCaffrey averaged 9.7 targets, 7.6 receptions, and 73.7 receiving yards per game. He’s essentially a WR1 and an RB1 rolled into one roster spot, and it’s pretty tough to beat that combination.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Kyren Williams ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
It’s been pretty quiet for Williams of late. He’s averaged just 13.0 carries and 61.5 rushing yards over his past four contests, and he’s added just one rushing score over that time frame. He has made up for it slightly with his work as a receiver – especially his two receiving touchdowns – but he’s merely RB15 in terms of PPR points per game over the past five weeks.
However, Williams is in arguably the best spot of the week. He’s taking on the lowly Saints, who could be even more lowly than usual. They’re starting Tyler Shough for the first time at quarterback, and he’s somehow older than Trevor Lawrence (who’s in his fifth year). Maybe Shough can defy expectations in the long term, but there will almost certainly be some growing pains.
As a result, the Rams are listed as massive 14-point favorites in Week 9. Williams has a fantastic track record as a big favorite, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.88 when favored by at least 5.5 points (per the Trends tool). He’s never been a favorite this large a margin, but it should be an extremely favorable game script with plenty of opportunities.
Jaylen Warren ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Warren briefly lost his spot as the Steelers’ unquestioned top runner. He missed the team’s Week 4 win vs. the Vikings in London, and when he returned to the lineup in Week 6, he formed a committee with Kenneth Gainwell.
However, it’s been back to being all Warren over the past two weeks. He’s handled 66% of the snaps and 76% of the designed rushing attempts, and he’s also been targeted on 15% of his routes run. That’s not quite bell-cow usage, but it’s pretty close.
It makes Warren a very solid target at his current salary in what could be a high-scoring affair vs. the Colts. The total on this contest sits at 50.5 points, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Warren stands out as an excellent option using Sim Labs. He has the third-highest optimal lineup rate at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, trailing only McCaffrey and Williams.
Kimani Vidal ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
Omarion Hampton appears to be on the mend. He can return to the lineup in Week 10 after completing his IR stint, and when that happens, Vidal will likely head back into obscurity.
However, he’ll have at least one more go as the team’s starting RB, and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup than he’ll have in Week 9. He’s taking on the Titans, who have been an absolute disaster this season. They’re 28th in the league in rush defense EPA, and the Chargers are listed as 9.5-point road favorites. It sets up a potential game script where Vidal should see plenty of opportunities against a porous defense.
Vidal has also thrived as the Chargers’ primary back. He had 25.8 DraftKings points in his first game with Hampton sidelined, and he had 22.7 DraftKings points last week vs. the Vikings. He did have a clunker in between, but the good has far outweighed the bad for Vidal as a starter.
Vidal has gotten a bit pricy on FanDuel, but his $6,300 salary on DraftKings is still very reasonable. It comes with a 93% Bargain Rating, and he’s projected for far less ownership than the other players in this tier.
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Tyrone Tracy ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
On some weeks, Tracy would be a slam-dunk option at his current price tags. On this slate, he’s simply another value play on a slate that’s chock-full of them.
Tracy will take over as the Giants’ top RB with Cam Skattebo now done for the year, and we’ve seen Tracy shine in that role previously. He was RB17 in PPR scoring from Week 6 onward last season, and that was for a dismal Giants’ offense. They’ve been much better on that side of the ball with Jaxson Dart under center, so it’s a much more promising situation.
The Giants also get a nice matchup this week vs. a reeling San Francisco defense. They lost Fred Warner to a season-ending injury, and they were shredded by the Texans without him last week. They surrendered 475 yards to an offense that has been pretty uninspiring for most of the year, including 157 yards on the ground.
Travis Etienne ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
The Jaguars were dealt a blow this week, with No. 2 overall pick Travis Hunter landing on IR. Hunter hasn’t had quite the impact most expected as a rookie, but it’s still a tough break for the franchise.
Fortunately, they get a matchup vs. the Raiders in Week 9. Las Vegas is one of the few franchises in a worse state than Jacksonville, and the Jags are actually listed as small road favorites in this contest. It sets up a solid potential game script for Etienne, who got off to a torrid start this season before cooling down of late.
Etienne has been limited to 12 carries or fewer in four straight games, but he averaged more than 16 in his four previous outings. If he can get back to that level, he has some buy-low appeal at his current salary.
Bijan Robinson ($8,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Robinson’s dud last week vs. the Dolphins is one of the most mind-boggling in recent memory. Robinson is arguably the most talented running back in the league, and he was facing a historically bad run defense. It should’ve been an absolute smash spot. Instead, the Falcons laid an absolute egg, partially due to Kirk Cousins‘ dreadful game at QB.
Michael Penix Jr. will be back in the lineup in Week 9, and he should hopefully help Robinson get back to being his best self. Robinson scored at least 21.2 DraftKings points in five of six games with Penix this season, including two with more than 30.
Robinson could fly a bit under the radar this week. He’s projected for roughly 12% ownership on DraftKings, and his optimal lineup rate exceeds his projected ownership on FanDuel.
Jonathan Taylor ($9,800 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)
At this point, Taylor has to be mentioned every single week. His salary has reached pretty ridiculous heights, but the dude is absolutely killing it on a weekly basis. He already has four games with three touchdowns this season, including three in his past four games.
Can he keep that pace up? Probably not, but he’s ripped off at least 31.6 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games. He had 26.7 in one of the lone exceptions, so he’s producing like prime LaDanian Tomlinson at this point. The Steelers have been average on defense this season, so I wouldn’t expect too much regression in this spot.
Pictured: Kyle Monangai
Photo Credit: Imagn






