We’re getting 11 games to choose from in Week 9, with the slate starting at the usual 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Josh Allen ($7,300) Buffalo Bills (+1.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (52.5 Total)
The Bills and Chiefs are perhaps the best rivalry in this era of the NFL, with two MVP quarterbacks who have combined for some memorable performances. While they haven’t all been classic games, they’ve pretty consistently produced elite fantasy scores for Allen. I used our Trends Tool to verify that my memory was correct:
Averaging more than 28 points per game is extremely impressive, as is the consistency. Just one of the nine games in that sample led to less than 20 points for Allen, and that was all the way back in October of 2020. Four of the games he’s gone for 30 or more, which means a nearly 50% chance of 4xing his Week 9 salary.
He’s also a slight home underdog in the game with the highest total on the slate, so it’s hard to overstate just how elite of a spot this is for Allen, who can go absolutely nuclear in the right situation. He’s the leader in median and ceiling projection by a narrow margin over his counterpart in this game but is projecting for less than half the ownership. That removes the last possible concern over rostering him for GPPs, and he’s also a fine cash game play if you can find the salary.
Value: Jaxon Dart ($5,200) New York Giants (+2.5) vs. San Francisco Giants (48.5)
DraftKings is having a hard time elevating Dart’s salary in line with his performances, as he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus score in all five of his starts so far this season. That speaks to his value as a fantasy asset, as he’s managed to produce without the help of his star wide receiver Malik Nabers, who has missed most of that time with a season-ending injury.
This week he’ll also be without running back Cam Skattebo. That could be a positive or a negative for Dart. On the one hand, losing their RB1 probably tips the Giants more to the air (especially as an underdog). On the other hand, Skattebo has been one of the Giants’ more productive pass catchers, further limiting Dart’s weaponry.
Regardless of the personnel around him, it’s a strong spot for Dart. The 49ers defense (and offense, for that matter) has been decimated by injuries, and three of the last four QBs they faced topped 19 DraftKings points. At Dart’s salary that would be plenty for cash games, and he clearly has the upside for significantly more.
He’s the clear leader in Pts/Sal projection and probably the best cash game play, though it’s tempting to punt elsewhere for Allen or Mahomes.
Quick Hits
Patrick Mahomes ($7,100): Allen’s opponent has virtually identical projections and checks in at $200 cheaper. The Chiefs also lead the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) by a wide margin, so Mahomes should be dropping back regardless of game script. He’s averaged about 25 points per game in his career against the Bills, with a similar ceiling as Allen but a few more duds. Their relative ownership makes Allen a better GPP play, but Mahomes is also an elite option.
Caleb Williams ($5,700): Williams and the Bears are facing the Bengals, who are arguably the worst defense in the league but certainly the worst defense on the slate, thanks to Dallas playing on Monday night. Williams had his best game of the year against those Cowboys (29.12 DK points), and the Bengals’ DVOA against the pass is even worse, so this is a perfect breakout opportunity for the second-year player.
Daniel Jones ($6,100): Jones and the Colts offense might get lost in the excitement of Bills/Chiefs, but that would be a mistake in DFS. The Colts have averaged three more points per game than any other team in the league and are facing a Pittsburgh defense that has been uncharacteristically bad against QBs, allowing the second-most points to the position. We’d need some things to break right in terms of game script for Jones to take down a GPP, but as just three-point favorites, it’s not all that unlikely.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
