The Chiefs are so back, baby! They’ll take the field on Monday Night Football vs. the Washington Commanders, and they’re currently listed as 11-point home favorites. The total on this contest sits at 47.5.
Kansas City got off to a slow start this season, but its offense has been turbocharged after getting a bit healthier. They’ve gotten their top two receivers back in recent weeks, and they’ve responded with some of their best offensive production since the Tyreek Hill days. They’ve scored at least 28 points in four straight games, and they’re second in EPA per play over that time frame.
Unfortunately, things have not gone nearly as well for the Commanders. They were one of the biggest surprise success stories in the league last year, but they’re currently sitting at just 3-4. They’re going to have to survive for at least one more game without their starting quarterback, putting them behind the eight ball on Monday Night Football.
Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Commanders-Chiefs.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Patrick Mahomes is the only player priced in the stud tier for this contest. Mahomes has had a historic career, winning two MVPs and three Super Bowls in his first seven years as a starter. He has two other Super Bowl losses in that stretch, and he’s made it to the AFC Championship game in every year as a starter. It simply doesn’t get much better than that.
However, Mahomes’ statistical production had fallen off in recent years. He failed to crack 4,000 passing yards for the first time as a full-time starter in 2024-25, and he’s had 27 touchdown passes or fewer in back-to-back years. He finished as QB11 in terms of fantasy points per game last year, and he was QB12 the year prior. Mahomes was still widely regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in football; he just wasn’t producing as well as some of his peers.
That’s changed in 2025. Mahomes is back to being a major statistical threat in addition to one of the league’s top winners. He’s currently first at the position in fantasy points per game, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of seven games. He’s scored at least 23.08 DraftKings points in all but one outing, including at least 26.24 DraftKings points in four straight.
Getting back his top two receivers has certainly helped. Mahomes has 11 touchdown passes over his past four outings, and he’s averaged 282.2 passing yards per game in those contests. The Chiefs are No. 1 in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation, so Mahomes should keep slinging it.
Mahomes has also provided more value with his legs than ever before. The Chiefs have struggled to get the run game going for most of the year, so Mahomes has had to pick up the slack. He led the team in rushing yards heading into Week 7, averaging a career-best 35.7 yards per game. Mahomes might not need to do quite as much rushing moving forward, but he’s had at least 28 yards in three straight games. That’s not a ton, but it gives him just an added bit of upside on a weekly basis.
Mahomes should have no problem doing whatever he wants against the Commanders. Their defense has been a disappointment this season, ranking 22nd in pass defense EPA. They’ve allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and they’re 27th in terms of yards per game allowed.
The gap between Mahomes and the rest of the players on this slate is wide. He leads the slate in median projection by more than seven points, and the gap at ceiling projection is closer to 12.5. Mahomes also has the top projected Plus/Minus on this slate, so he’s an extremely difficult fade.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Rashee Rice returned to the Chiefs’ lineup in Week 7, suiting up for the first time in more than a year. He missed the team’s final 16 games last year with an injury (including playoffs), and he missed the first six games this season while serving a suspension.
Rice immediately stepped right into a sizable workload in his first game back. He saw 10 targets, good for a healthy 27% target share. However, he was on the field for just 48% of the Chiefs’ passing plays. As a result, he was targeted on a whopping 47% of his routes run.
Rice should continue to see more snaps and routes as he gets up to game speed, and his role as the team’s top pass-catcher is unquestioned. That gives him the potential to be one of the best receivers in fantasy.
Getting a high-end WR1 at just $9,600 stands out as an excellent value, especially in an elite matchup. Even if Rice isn’t a full-time player quite yet, he’s proven that he can return value in a part-time role.
With Jayden Daniels out for the Commanders, Marcus Mariota will get to make his third start of the season. While that’s obviously not ideal, Mariota is one of the best backups in football. Look at what he’s done with extensive playing time since the start of last year:
- Week 4 at Falcons (2025): 17.24 DraftKings points
- Week 3 vs. Raiders (2025): 21.28 DraftKings points
- Week 18 at Cowboys (2024): 26.04 DraftKings points
- Week 7 vs. Panthers (2024): 19.6 DraftKings points
Essentially, he’s averaged better than 21 fantasy points per game with a starter’s workload since taking over as the Commanders’ backup.
That gives him plenty of potential for success vs. the Chiefs, though he is going to have to navigate a tough matchup. Kansas City ranks eighth in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Still, Mariota has the third-highest median projection on the slate, and he ranks second in ceiling projection.
The good news for Mariota is that he’ll have his top two receivers available. Deebo Samuel will return to the lineup after missing last week’s contest, while Terry McLaurin will suit up for the first time since Week 3. We’ve yet to see a full game with both players and Mariota under center, so it will be interesting to see how the targets shake out between the two receivers.
Neither player grades out particularly well in our NFL Models, but McLaurin is slightly more appealing. Before getting injured in Week 3, McLaurin was targeted on 29% of his routes run in his lone game with Mariota. Samuel has just nine total targets in two full games with Mariota, so they might not have the same level of chemistry.
With Rice back for the Chiefs, it’s hard to get too excited about Xavier Worthy at his current salary. Worthy maintained a solid 75% route participation in his first game with Rice back, which was the top mark on the team. However, his target share dipped to just 12%. He was at merely 14% the week prior, so he does not appear to be a huge part of the team’s passing attack.
Of course, Worthy is known for his speed, so he doesn’t need a ton of opportunities to potentially rip off a big play. That makes him a classic boom-or-bust WR2. The Chiefs are implied for nearly 30 points in this contest, so it’s definitely possible for Worthy to find the paint. That said, it’s going to be tough for him to provide value otherwise.
Travis Kelce is also still around in Kansas City. He’s clearly not the same dominant force that he was in his prime, but he’s put together a few solid performances of late. He had 19.1 DraftKings points vs. the Jaguars in Week 5, and he scored double-digit DraftKings points in four of his first six outings.
Unfortunately, Kelce saw just three targets in Rice’s first game back. That could be a one-week outlier, or it could be a sign of things to come. Mahomes has more weapons at his disposal than he’s had in years, so he may not lean on the 36-year-old TE as much as in the past.
If you’re going to play Kelce on this slate, you’re best off doing so on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,400 on that site, resulting in a slate-best 95% Bargain Rating.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt had a massive breakout game in Week 5. He racked up 111 rushing yards and two touchdowns vs. the Chargers, and it appeared as though he was poised to take over the Commanders’ backfield.
Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. He’s still seen an uptick in carries over the past two contests, but he’s responded with just 6.8 and 4.2 DraftKings points.
The biggest red flag in JCM’s profile is his lack of work as a receiver. He has just a 5% target share for the year, and he’s not on the field in most passing situations.
That makes him a massive risk in a game where the Commanders are expected to play from behind. If this game gets out of hand early, it’s possible that JCM spends most of the game on the sidelines. He also has some upside vs. an exploitable Chiefs’ run defense – they’re 23rd in rush defense EPA – but that only matters if the game stays competitive.
Conversely, it’s a great spot for Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco has been a disappointment for most of the year, but he is starting to take over in the Chiefs’ backfield. He handled 77% of the snaps and 60% of the designed rushing attempts in Week 6, and he scored his first rushing TD of the season in Week 7. He only managed a 44% carry share in that outing, but that was because the game turned into a blowout. Just five of his 15 carries came after the nine-minute mark in the third quarter, with the other RBs on the roster handling most of the mop-up duties.
There’s a chance that Pacheco takes over as the Chiefs’ clear early-down runner, making him an excellent value at just $7,000 as a massive favorite. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.68 when favored by at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool), despite routinely carrying a more expensive price tag.
Zach Ertz has quietly been one of the more reliable tight ends in fantasy this season. He owns an 80% route participation and 18% target share for the year, both of which are extremely solid. His best production has come with Daniels under center this season, but he’s still posted target shares of 16% and 17% in Mariota’s two starts. He doesn’t provide a ton of upside, but he’s very reasonable at his current salary.
Hollywood Brown has managed to stay relevant by scoring touchdowns. He has three in the past two weeks, and he’s always going to have a chance to score while catching passes from Mahomes.
Unfortunately, the rest of his profile looks pretty bleak. His route participation dipped to 48% with Rice back last week, which was his lowest mark of the season. He’s also had a target share of 14% or lower in back-to-back games. Last week was particularly bleak, with Brown finishing with just four targets, two receptions, and 15 yards. If the touchdowns dry up, Brown is going to struggle to return value.
That said, his salary is down to just $4,800 on FanDuel, and he’s definitely worth considering at that figure. It makes him just the ninth-priciest member of the Chiefs’ offense, which is underselling his role.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Chiefs’ options are getting the most love out of this quartet, with Harrison Butker leading the group in projected Plus/Minus.
- Jaylin Lane ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Lane had the opportunity to shine with McLaurin and Samuel sidelined last week, but that shouldn’t be the case with both back in action. He should return to more of a reserve role, making him overpriced.
- Brashard Smith ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) – Smith is an interesting option in Chiefs’ stacks. He has good correlation with Mahomes, with most of Smith’s work coming as a receiver. He also soaked up some extra opportunities as a runner in garbage time last week, and that could be the case again vs. the Commanders.
- Luke McCaffrey ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – McCaffrey has been a big play threat for the Commanders this season, turning just eight catches into three touchdowns. He has a 17.8 average depth of target (aDOT) for the year, though he should also see fewer opportunities with the team’s top receivers healthy.
- Chris Rodriguez ($3,600 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) – Rodriguez failed to earn even a single carry in Week 6, and things weren’t much better in Week 7. He’s fallen significantly behind Croskey-Merritt in the pecking order, and that seems unlikely to change.
- Jeremy McNichols ($3,400 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – McNichols is arguably the most intriguing of the Commanders’ RBs on this slate. He handles most of the pass-catching responsibilities, so this sets up as a potentially elite game script for him. He also shouldn’t command a ton of ownership, making him a solid differentiator for tournaments.
- Kareem Hunt ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – Hunt’s role has shrunk as the season has progressed. Pacheco continues to earn a larger share of the early-down touches, while Smith plays primarily on third down. That doesn’t leave a ton for Hunt.
- Tyquan Thornton ($2,800 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Thornton has salvaged his career with the Chiefs, though he’s not seeing as many opportunities with Worthy and Rice back in the lineup. However, he still saw two targets last week, and managed to bring one in for a 39-yard gain. Most of his damage comes in chunk plays, so he doesn’t need a ton of targets to potentially return value.
- Chris Moore ($2,600 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) – Moore’s involvement has grown in recent weeks, and he could be the team’s No. 3 receiver on this slate.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster ($2,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Smith-Schuster just never seems to go away, even if we all may want him to. He had three targets last week and a 48% route participation.
- Noah Gray ($2,000 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Gray hasn’t been quite as involved this year as he was last season. Specifically, he’s failed to find the paint after scoring five touchdowns in 2024-25. He likely won’t go scoreless all year, and when he eventually finds the end zone, he could easily find his way into the optimal lineup.
Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
Photo Credit: Imagn
