Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Quinshon Judkins ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
It’s pretty crazy how quickly Judkins has taken over the Browns’ backfield. He was not signed throughout the preseason, and he was inactive in the team’s first game. He got his feet wet in Week 2, but has been the team’s clear workhorse from Week 3 onwards. He’s handled 80% of the team’s rushing attempts over that time frame, including most of the short-yardage opportunities. Judkins is still losing some work on third downs, but he’s made Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson pretty much obsolete otherwise.
That gives Judkins excellent upside vs. the Dolphins. The Dolphins haven’t just been bad against the run this season; they’ve been historically bad. They’ve allowed at least 122 rushing yards in all six games, and their average is at a whopping 168.5. Opponents have averaged 5.6 yards per carry against them, while the Dolphins are somehow only fourth-worst in terms of rush defense EPA.
Judkins’ resulting Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2 is unsurprisingly one of the top marks on the slate. This is also a rare game where the Browns are favored, so it should set up a positive game script for Judkins. He had at least 18 carries in three straight games before a blowout loss in Week 6, and if Judkins can get to that threshold vs. the Dolphins, the sky is the limit. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also has one of the top ceiling projections despite his midrange salaries.
Breece Hall ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
With Braelon Allen now on IR, the coast is clear for Hall to take over as the Jets’ workhorse running back. That role could have plenty of value. No team has a lower Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) this season, with the Jets checking in at a whopping -8.3%.
We saw what a full workload can look like for Hall in Week 6. He played on a season-high 74% of the team’s offensive snaps, and he finished with 22 carries. He didn’t earn a single target in that contest, but he had a respectable 15% target share across his first five games. That gives him the upside for 25+ opportunities on a weekly basis.
Hall didn’t take full advantage of his volume last week, but that was an overseas contest vs. an elite Broncos’ defense. This week’s matchup shouldn’t be as difficult. The Panthers have been significantly improved on that side of the ball, but they’ve been better against the pass than the run. They’ve surrendered at least 104 rushing yards in three of six games, including 200 to the Jaguars in Week 1.
The Jets have even more incentive than usual to run the ball on Sunday. They’re playing without top receiver Garrett Wilson, who owns a 35% target share for the year. Justin Fields isn’t a great quarterback to begin with, and without his top pass-catcher, the offense could lean heavily on the ground game. Add in a spread of just 1.5 points, and Hall should provide an elite floor at a reasonable price tag.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
The Commanders started the year with a clear committee at running back, but the injury to Austin Ekeler changed things. Croskey-Merritt has taken over as their top between-the-tackles grinder, with Jeremy McNichols working in on passing downs. Chris Rodriguez didn’t receive a single touch last week, so this appears to be a two-man split moving forward.
Croskey-Merritt should be the biggest beneficiary. He saw 61% of the team’s carries two weeks ago, and that figure increased to 71% last week. He ultimately finished with a season-high 17 carries, though he managed just 61 yards.
Still, Croskey-Merritt has averaged an elite 5.7 yards per carry for the season, and he showed off his upside with an increased workload two weeks ago. He turned 14 carries into 111 yards and two touchdowns, resulting in 31.0 DraftKings points.
Last week’s contest came against a tough Bears’ run defense, so he’s in position for a much better showing vs. the Cowboys. They’ve been one of the worst defensive teams in football this season, including a No. 26 rank in rush defense EPA. They’ve allowed the third-most PPR points per game to opposing RBs, so Croskey-Merritt appears poised for a strong showing.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
Javonte Williams ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Williams is on the other side of that matchup, and he’s been one of the biggest surprises of the fantasy season. He’s currently RB6 in terms of PPR points per game, and he’s scored at least 19.0 DraftKings points in four of six games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one contest, which came last week against the Panthers.
With Miles Sanders now on IR, Williams has the opportunity to absolutely dominate the opportunities in this backfield. He played on 85% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, and he racked up 72% of the carries. Perhaps more importantly, he earned a season-high 23% target share, though he managed just five yards and five catches on his eight targets.
This game between the Cowboys and Commanders has the potential to be a fantasy goldmine. The total currently sits at 54.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate by six full points. The Commanders are merely 20th in rush defense EPA, while the Cowboys’ rushing attack had been one of the most efficient in football before last week’s debacle.
Ultimately, Williams checks in with the third-highest optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs. He’s still priced very reasonably considering his workload.
Jonathan Taylor ($8,800 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)
No one has produced like Taylor so far this season. He’s not the same threat as a pass-catcher as some of the other top backs in fantasy, but he makes up for it with the best rushing numbers in the league. He leads all players with 115 carries, 603 rushing yards, and seven rushing touchdowns, and he’s on pace to average more than 100 yards per game for the third time in five seasons.
Taylor has absolutely dominated the rushing opportunities in the Colts’ backfield. D.J. Giddens is the only other back on the roster with more than three carries, and he’s nearly 100 behind Taylor at 18. If you remove QB rushing attempts from the equation, no one has handled a larger share of their team’s attempts.
Taylor has averaged a hyper-efficient 5.2 yards per attempt this season, and there’s no reason to expect much different in Week 7. He’s taking on the Chargers, who have been a run funnel defense so far this year. They’re 22nd in rush defense EPA but sixth against the pass, so it’s a spot where Taylor could be asked to carry the load once again. He has the second-highest optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs and the top ceiling projection at the position.
De’Von Achane ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Achane is another stud running back to consider. That said, the way he goes about his business is way different than Taylor. He’s one of the biggest pass-catching threats at the position, posting an elite 22% target share through the first six weeks. Only Christian McCaffrey has a better mark among running backs.
With Tyreek Hill now out for the Dolphins, even more of the offense could flow through Achane. He had 16 carries and six targets last week vs. the Chargers, and he responded with 128 rushing yards, four catches, 22 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. Achane’s explosiveness as a runner appears to be back after a disappointing sophomore campaign, with the Dolphins’ RB averaging 5.1 yards per attempt so far this season.
Unfortunately, the matchup vs. the Browns is as bad as it gets. They’ve been an absolute nightmare for opposing RBs this season, ranking first in rush defense EPA while allowing the second-fewest PPR points per game to the position.
Still, Achane’s biggest upside comes from his pass-catching potential, and he should still be involved in that aspect at a bare minimum. He’s priced at a significant discount compared to Taylor, but he’s neck-and-neck in terms of ceiling projection.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Kimani Vidal ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
The Chargers lost their second RB to IR in Week 5, with rookie Omarion Hampton joining Najee Harris on the sidelines. That opened up an opportunity for the rest of the roster, though it was unclear which RB would get the first crack.
Turns out, Vidal was that guy. He played on 67% of the snaps and handled 72% of the team’s rushing attempts vs. the Dolphins. He also played on the majority of the high-value short-yardage and pass-catching snaps. Hassan Haskins was a distant second at a 31% snap share, while the recently elevated Nyheim Hines barely saw the field.
If Vidal can maintain that level of usage moving forward, he has significantly more upside than his current salaries suggest. This matchup between the Colts and Chargers is also expected to feature plenty of points, with the 48.5-point total ranking second on the slate.
Josh Jacobs ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
Jacobs is officially listed as questionable for the Packers’ Week 7 matchup vs. the Cardinals. However, he was able to get in a full practice on Friday, which bodes well for his chances of taking the field.
As long as he’s in the lineup, he stands out as an intriguing tournament option. Jacobs is a true workhorse back, and the Packers are sizable seven-point favorites vs. Arizona. Most RBs tend to perform well as a large favorite, and Jacobs is no exception. He’s averaged more than 20 DraftKings points in games where favored by at least a touchdown, good for an average Plus/Minus of +5.53 (per the Trends tool).
Jacobs is not expected to be particularly popular, and only Achane has a bigger gap between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership.
J.K. Dobbins ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Dobbins checks a bunch of the same boxes as Jacobs. He’s not quite as involved in his team’s ground game, but he’s still handled 63% of their carries for the year. That includes at least 64% in back-to-back games.
The Broncos are also listed as seven-point favorites on Sunday in a home matchup vs. the Giants. New York has fared well against the pass this season – thanks mostly to their elite stable of pass-rushers – but they haven’t been nearly as successful vs. the run. They’re 27th in rush defense EPA, so it’s a solid spot for Dobbins to have a productive outing.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
The Patriots are another team that is favored by close to a touchdown on this slate, and they also get a juicy matchup. The Titans are 23rd in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to opposing RBs.
While the Patriots have employed a committee backfield this season, Stevenson has been their clear top dog. With Antonio Gibson lost for the season, Stevenson played on a season-high 71% of the snaps in Week 6, while rookie TreVeyon Henderson saw just a 29% snap share. Stevenson continues to dominate the opportunities on passing downs and near the goal line, so he’s the clear back to target in New England.
Pictured: Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Photo Credit: Imagn
