Week 7 NFL DFS QB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.

In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Patrick Mahomes ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

The Chiefs may be just 3-3 at the moment, but Mahomes is providing some of the best fantasy production of his career. He currently leads all quarterbacks with an average of 24.8 fantasy points per game, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one outing.

His production has really taken off in recent weeks with the return of Xavier Worthy. He’s racked up at least 27.3 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s eclipsed 30 DraftKings points in two straight. With Rashee Rice set to rejoin the fray in Week 7, Mahomes will have his best complement of passing weapons since losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins.

Mahomes has had to do everything for the Chiefs’ offense this season. In addition to his usual passing prowess, Mahomes also leads the team in rushing yards. He’s averaging a career-best 6.3 attempts and 37.0 yards on the ground, and he’s already punched in four touchdowns. With the Chiefs getting virtually nothing from the RB position, their best offense has been to simply put the ball in Mahomes’ hands. That shouldn’t change moving forward.

Mahomes could be even more involved than usual this week. The Raiders have been surprisingly good against the run this season, ranking sixth in rush defense EPA. They’re merely 19th against the pass, so it’s a fantastic spot for Mahomes to drop back and take advantage of having Worthy, Rice, and Travis Kelce all healthy.

The Chiefs are implied for a slate-best 29.0 points, and they’re listed as 12.5-point favorites. Mahomes has historically done some of his best work as a big favorite, averaging 24.33 DraftKings points when favored by more than a touchdown (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, Mahomes leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The gap between Mahomes and the rest of the field is particularly wide on the latter, where his $8,000 salary comes with a position-best 82% Bargain Rating.

Jayden Daniels ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)

The gap between Mahomes and Daniels isn’t quite as stark on DraftKings, where Daniels checks in slightly behind the Chiefs’ QB in terms of salary. While Mahomes is running a bit more this season, he’s still well behind Daniels from an athleticism standpoint. Daniels averaged 52.4 rushing yards per game with six touchdowns during his rookie season.

Daniels hasn’t been quite as dominant on the ground so far this year, but he’s still averaging a whopping nine carries per game. That gives him some of the best rushing upside at the position. He’s had double-digit attempts in two of his four starts this season, and he’s gone for at least 52 rushing yards in both of those contests.

That said, Daniels is far from a one-trick pony. He’s also very dangerous with his arm, and he’s racked up seven touchdown passes to just one interception this season. He’s currently playing without top receiver Terry McLaurin, but that didn’t stop him from throwing for 211 yards and three touchdowns last week.

Daniels also gets one of the best possible matchups vs. the Cowboys. Their defense has been absolutely atrocious to start the year. They’re dead last in overall defensive EPA and pass defense EPA, and no team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

While Mahomes has slightly better marks in terms of median and Plus/Minus projection, Daniels edges him out from a ceiling standpoint. Ultimately, both players are fantastic options that should deliver big performances.

Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Justin Herbert ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)

Herbert got off to a fantastic start this season, and he appeared poised for a career year. He was working with arguably the best supporting cast of his career at receiver, and the Chargers were airing it out much more than expected under head coach Jim Harbaugh. They’re currently second in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), with only the Chiefs posting a better mark.

However, Herbert’s production has cooled off of late. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s scored fewer than 20 DraftKings points in five straight. He hasn’t had any truly disastrous performances over that time frame, but he’s merely QB22 in fantasy points per game during that stretch.

The good news is that Herbert threw the ball 38 times in his last outing. The Chargers are currently dealing with injuries to their top two running backs, so their best chance of moving the ball is with Herbert’s right arm.

They’re going to need to do some scoring to try to keep up with the Colts on Sunday. The total on this game sits at 48.5 points, which is the second-highest on the slate. It’s a potentially elite game environment, and while the Colts have been solid on defense this season, they haven’t played a particularly tough schedule. They’ve also allowed 300+ passing yards in two of their past three games.

Caleb Williams ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)

While Williams is still a work in progress at the NFL level, he’s at least delivered the goods from a fantasy perspective. He’s QB7 in terms of fantasy points per game this season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of five outings.

Williams stands out as the clear top target if paying down at the position on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $5,800, resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating. That’s easily the top mark among QBs priced above $5,200, with no other player in that group checking in above 53%.

Williams also draws a solid matchup this week vs. the Saints. They’ve been one of the biggest pass funnels in football to start the year, ranking fifth in rush defense EPA and 27th against the pass. Chicago hasn’t had a ton of success on the ground to begin with, so the offense should flow through Williams once again in Week 7.

Williams ultimately has the fourth-highest optimal rate at the position on DraftKings, trailing only Mahomes, Daniels, and Herbert. He’s expected to garner less ownership than all three, making him a solid pivot for tournaments.

Dak Prescott ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

Prescott has historically thrived in three situations throughout his career: at home, in division, and as a favorite. He checks all three boxes this week vs. the Commanders in the game with the highest total on the slate. It’s set at a whopping 54.5 points, so there is expected to be plenty of offense on both sides.

When Prescott has fit all three of the previously mentioned criteria, he has been a massive source of fantasy value. He’s historically averaged 24.85 DraftKings points as a divisional home favorite, good for an average Plus/Minus of +5.05.

Additionally, Prescott is going to get back top receiver CeeDee Lamb for this matchup. He’s survived without him over the past two weeks, but Lamb’s return should make this offense even more potent. Prescott is expected to fly a bit under the radar this week – he’s currently projected for less than 5% ownership – but he really shouldn’t be.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Bo Nix ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)

Nix stands out as an intriguing contrarian option, especially on FanDuel. His Bargain Rating is tied for the third-best at the position, and his play has improved significantly after a slow start to the year. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past five games, and one of the exceptions was last week’s London contest. Overseas affairs are always tricky, so it’s easy to give him a pass for that outing.

At his best, Nix brings solid dual-threat upside to the position. He’s averaged 5.5 rushing attempts per game this season, and he had five rushing scores as a rookie.

The matchup vs. the Giants is an interesting one. They have an excellent pass rush, but their secondary can be exploitable if you can pass protect. The Broncos have the No. 1 pass-blocking grade per PFF, so Nix has a better chance than most in this matchup. 

Daniel Jones ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Jones is another potentially undervalued dual-threat option. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in four of six starts this season, and he just narrowly missed in one of the exceptions. He’s already punched in four touchdowns with his legs this season, and he’s helped propel the Colts to an unexpected elite offensive start. They’re currently first in the league in points per game and fourth in yardage, so they’ve moved the ball as consistently as anyone this season.

Jones draws a tough matchup this week vs. the Chargers, but Jones has the upside to provide value vs. anyone. He’s showing up with a higher optimal rate than projected ownership across the industry in Sim Labs.

Carson Wentz ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)

Wentz is dirt cheap at $5,000, putting him in the same tier as guys like Dillon Gabriel, Cam Ward, and Spencer Rattler. With all due respect to those gentlemen, Wentz is simply a far better option. He’s playing in one of the most QB-friendly offenses in football, and he has an elite group of weapons at his disposal. We’ve already seen Wentz go off once in this system, scoring 26.2 DraftKings points vs. the Steelers in Week 4.

J.J. McCarthy will miss another contest with an ankle injury, so Wentz has been confirmed as the team’s starter vs. the Eagles. While playing the Eagles is never fun, they haven’t been nearly as dominant defensively as they were last year: they’re merely 14th in pass defense EPA. Ultimately, Wentz has more upside than his price tag suggests, making him the top choice if you’re looking to spend as little as possible at the position in tournaments.

Pictured: Jayden Daniels
Photo Credit: Imagn