The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayden Daniels at Dallas Cowboys – $6,900 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
The Commanders have the second-highest implied team total on the slate this Sunday, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and their divisional matchup with the Cowboys has the highest over/under on the board. Daniels always brings a high ceiling and should be set up to thrive in this smash spot against Dallas.
Of the 20 starting QBs on the main slate, Daniels has the highest ceiling and median projections on both FanDuel and DraftKings in an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections. We’ll rely heavily on that combined set of projections throughout this post.
He also matches a massive nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, which is more than any other QB on the board. No other QB matches more than five Pro Trends on DraftKings this week.
Last week, Daniels exceeded salary-based expectations in a loss to the Bears by throwing for 211 yards and three touchdowns while adding 52 rushing yards as well. He had a pair of costly turnovers but still finished with 23.6 DraftKings points, his highest mark of the season.
In each of his four games, he has at least 17 DraftKings points and brings both a high ceiling and a high floor with his dual-threat production each week. He showed he’s past his knee injury that cost him two games with that rushing production, and he should be able to post a big number this week in a great matchup against the Cowboys.
Dallas has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than any other team in the NFL. The Cowboys have given up multiple QB touchdowns in every game they’ve played this season, while allowing an average of 286.5 passing yards per contest.
If you are searching for a high ceiling and have the salary available, Daniels is the top play on the board in Week 7.
Top Value: Caleb Williams vs. New Orleans Saints – $5,800 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel
Daniels also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks on DraftKings in the aggregate projections, but if you’re looking for a cheaper option, Caleb Williams is under $6,000 on DraftKings and brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Williams led his Bears past Daniels and the Commanders on Monday night and has played well in his first year in the offensive system of new coach Ben Johnson. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his five games and has thrown for over 200 yards in each contest.
Coming off a Week 5 bye week, he threw for 252 yards and a touchdown on Monday, and he added his second rushing touchdown of the season. After earning 19.9 DraftKings points in that game, he has at least 18 DraftKings points in four of his five games this season.
He gets a good matchup at home on Sunday against the Saints, who were torn up by Drake Maye last week and have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.
Williams is comparatively much cheaper on DraftKings than FanDuel, as indicated by his 97% Bargain Rating on that site. On FanDuel, Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler are better bargain plays if you opt to go cheap under center this week.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Taylor at Los Angeles Chargers – $8,800 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
Even though he’s an expensive player to build around, Taylor’s outstanding start to the season makes him a strong option to consider this Sunday in Los Angeles. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in the three-way aggregate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Taylor has eight touchdowns in his six games this year, averaging 100.5 rushing yards and 3.3 catches for 24.5 receiving yards per game. He ran for 123 yards last week at home against the Cardinals and caught all four of his targets for 14 yards. He found the end zone for the fourth time in his last two games on the game-winning score with under five minutes to go in the game.
With Daniel Jones under center, the Colts’ offense has been extremely productive this season, and Taylor has been the clear focal point. He and the Colts are in a fascinating matchup against the Chargers in a matchup of AFC playoff hopefuls on the rise. Last week, the Chargers gave up 128 rushing yards and two touchdowns to De’Von Achane and they rank in the middle of the pack against the run in most meaningful numbers this season.
Taylor always gets a high volume, and with so many scoring opportunities, he makes a lot of sense to build around if you have the salary available.
Top Value: Breece Hall vs. Carolina Panthers – $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Earlier this week, I examined Quinshon Judkins as a good value option, and he still has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. However, as the week has gone on, Breece Hall has emerged as the running back with the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hall will have to carry the load this week for the Jets, who struggled to get anything going in the passing game last week in London and will likely be without Garrett Wilson (knee) and possibly Josh Reynolds (hip) in this home matchup with the Panthers.
Hall was held in check by the Broncos last week as well, managing just 59 yards on a season-high 22 carries. He didn’t find the end zone, as the Jets offense wasn’t able to score any touchdowns in their narrow, 13-11 defeat.
Even though he hasn’t had a touchdown yet this year, Hall has three games with over 16 DraftKings points, including two straight before last week’s letdown. He had a season-high 21.5 DraftKings points against the Cowboys in Week 5, running for a season-high 113 yards while adding four catches for 42 more yards.
The Jets offense will have to rely on him heavily this week, and he could be lined up for lots of volume as a receiver specifically. The Panthers haven’t been pushovers against running backs this year like they have been in recent seasons, but Hall’s volume should be enough to keep him as a good option this week, especially since he still brings plenty of big-play potential every time he touches the ball.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: CeeDee Lamb vs. Washington Commanders – $7,500 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
Most of the top options at receiver this week have some question marks around them coming into the week. Lamb is coming back from injury, Justin Jefferson may have a different quarterback, Rashee Rice is returning from his suspension, A.J. Brown has been in a season-long funk, and Rome Odunze is coming off a very down week. The highest ceiling projection at the position on both sites, though, comes from Lamb, who has missed the last three weeks with an ankle sprain but has said he’s ready to return this week against Washington.
Lamb was injured in Week 3 against the Bears after playing just seven snaps. In each of his first two games prior to the injury, he exceeded salary-based expectations, getting off to a hot start in the Cowboys’ high-volume passing offense.
In Week 1, he had seven catches on 13 targets for 110 yards, and he followed that up with nine catches for 112 yards on 11 targets against the Giants. If he’s ready for that kind of workload in his return, he’ll be a premium option at the position.
The Commanders have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, so they should be a good matchup for Lamb. In their six games, they have allowed six receiver touchdowns and an average of 150.8 yards per game to the position.
Top Value: Chris Olave at Chicago Bears – $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Olave remains under-priced relative to his workload for the Saints, so I’m rolling with him once again as a top value play at wide receiver. While he hasn’t been especially efficient, he ranks second in the NFL in targets and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on DraftKings, along with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in our three-way aggregate projections for the week.
Olave has a 77% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but Stefon Diggs has just a slightly higher Projected Plus/Minus since he has a 98% Bargain Rating.
Olave has a massive 63 targets on the year with 39 catches for 342 yards and a touchdown. Only Puka Nacua has more targets this season than Olave, although his efficiency and yardage totals haven’t been great. He had six catches for 98 yards last week in a loss to New England for 15.8 DraftKings points.
That solid production continued his run of producing at least 10 DraftKings points in every game this season. He has double-digit targets in five of his six contests, even though he hasn’t hit 100 yards in any game yet, and he only found the end zone in Week 4 against the Bills.
The fourth-year receiver from Ohio State is getting so much volume that he brings a high ceiling at this salary, especially in a top-10 matchup against the Bears, who have allowed an average of 9.0 catches for 137.8 yards per game. Wide receivers have scored eight touchdowns in five games against Chicago, including two touchdowns on Monday by the Commanders.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride vs. Green Bay Packers – $5,700 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
In the three-way aggregate projections for Week 7, McBride has a clean sweep of the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites.
McBride could be in for even more work than normal this week since the Cardinals could be without Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion), who left last week’s game early, and his replacement, Zay Jones (knee), who missed back-to-back practices as well. Especially if Kyler Murray (foot) is back from his one-week absence, McBride should get plenty of looks this week against the Packers.
Last week, McBride caught eight of his 11 targets for 72 yards and a touchdown from backup QB Jacoby Brissett. It was his first game of the season with over 20 DraftKings points, but he has averaged 14.0 DraftKings points on 8.8 targets, 6.2 catches, and 57.8 receiving yards per game so far this season.
He’s already an elite option, so bumping his volume up makes him an even stronger play this week. He’s also in a top-five matchup for tight ends against the Packers, so consider him a smash start this week.
Top Value: Harold Fannin Jr. vs. Miami Dolphins – $3,900 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
Just behind McBride, rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at tight end on both FanDuel and DraftKings in our aggregate projections. He should be in a great spot and lined up for plenty of work in this matchup of 1-5 teams in Cleveland.
The Dolphins have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, including nine catches to the position last week in their loss to the Chargers. Fannin could get most of that work since David Njoku (knee) hasn’t been able to participate in practice this week, leaving his status unclear for Week 7.
Last week, with Njoku in and out of the game, Fannin was extremely involved against the Steelers, leading the team with seven catches and 81 receiving yards.
The rookie from Bowling Green has racked up 28 catches in six games for 254 yards and a touchdown. He has at least four catches in four of those matchups, with at least 45+ yards in three of those contests. Especially if Njoku is unable to play, Fannin will be a great value play this week.
Pictured: Breece Hall
Photo Credit: Imagn
