Week 7 in the NFL will be the third straight week with 10 games on the main DFS fantasy football slate. The Rams and Jaguars kick things off on Sunday morning in London, but the main slate gets underway at 1:00 p.m. ET with six games kicking off at that time, followed by four games in the late wave.
Coming off their big Sunday Night Football win, the Chiefs are tied with the Commanders for the highest implied team total on the board. The Bears and Cowboys are just behind those two teams, and the NFC East matchup between the Commanders and Cowboys has the highest over/under on the slate by a margin of almost a full touchdown. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 7. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Jayden Daniels ($6,900) Washington Commanders (-2) vs. Dallas Cowboys (55 total)
For this post, we’ll rely heavily on an evenly blended three-way aggregate of the projections from Koerner, Carty, and Raybon, highlighted above. In that aggregate, Daniels has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback on DraftKings’ main slate by a significant margin.
He has the second-highest salary at quarterback behind only Patrick Mahomes, but Projected Plus/Minus measures potential value over salary-based expectations, and each of the three projections gives Daniels their top spot. He’s expected to be worth his elevated price tag and still be able to outproduce his higher expectations. It’s important to remember that value isn’t always restricted to the cheapest players on the slate, although Daniels would have to do more to be a good value than a cheaper option like Caleb Williams ($5,800) or Jared Goff ($6,000).
Daniels has played four of his team’s six games this season, producing over 17 fantasy points in each of his four games with a pair of performances over 20 fantasy points. He exceeded salary-based expectations with a season-high 23.6 fantasy points on Monday Night Football of Week 6 in a narrow loss to the Bears.
In that game, he threw a season-high three touchdown passes with 211 passing yards and added a season-high 52 rushing yards. He did have two costly turnovers in the game as well, and ultimately, the Bears kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired.
Daniels and the Commanders will look to bounce back in a favorable matchup on the road against the Cowboys’ defense. Dallas has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the NFL, and the Commanders’ high point total should mean a big day for Daniels both on the ground and through the air.
The Commanders’ dual-threat QB always brings a very high ceiling, but in this matchup, he’s in a smash spot. The Cowboys have given up multiple QB touchdowns in every game they’ve played this season, while allowing an average of 286.5 passing yards per contest.
Daniels also matches more Pro Trends than any other quarterback this week, since he matches nine Pro Trends, and no other QB matches more than five.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Chris Olave ($5,400) New Orleans Saints (+5.5) at Chicago Bears (47.5 total)
Olave continues to bring great potential value as the top option in the Saints’ passing game. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers on the board this week in the aggregate projections for the second week in a row, since he continues to draw heavy targets from QB Spencer Rattler.
In their Week 6 loss to the Patriots, Olave caught six of his 10 targets for 98 yards, exceeding salary-based expectations for the third time in his last four games.
On the season, Olave still ranks second in the NFL with 64 targets, behind only Puka Nacua of the Rams, who has 65 targets but could miss this week with an ankle injury. While Olave could take over the lead in targets, he only has 342 yards and one touchdown, compared to Nacua’s impressive 616 yards and three total touchdowns. Despite his inefficiency, he can be a good value play with both a high ceiling and a high floor based on his high volume of work.
He has at least six catches in five of his six games this year, and his steady PPR production should continue this week against the Bears in Chicago. The Bears have been a top-10 matchup for receivers this season, allowing an average of 9.0 catches for 137.8 yards per game. Wide receivers have scored eight touchdowns in five games against Chicago, including two touchdowns on Monday by the Commanders’ receivers.
With such a heavy workload, Olave has a high ceiling if he starts finding the end zone and at least offers a high floor with so much PPR production.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Quinshon Judkins ($6,000) Cleveland Browns (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (40.5 total)
The Browns are at home against the Dolphins this week, and Judkins makes a strong play in the favorable matchup. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the board, and he brings a very high upside.
Judkins had exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his first four games this season before coming up short last week against the Steelers. He debuted in Week 2 with 10 carries for 61 yards and 10.1 fantasy points, and he posted over 16 fantasy points in each of the next three weeks, including two performances with over 100 total yards. He also scored two touchdowns and was involved as a receiver out of the backfield.
Last week, the Steelers held him catchless and only allowed 36 rushing yards on his 12 carries. Judkins will look to bounce back from that disappointing game in this smash spot against the Dolphins.
Miami has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season and has been torn up the last four weeks by James Cook, Breece Hall, Rico Dowdle, and Kimani Vidal. Since the Dolphins have been so generous to running backs, the Browns could lean heavily on their rookie second-round pick, who has shown a high enough ceiling to be a great play at $6,000 in Week 7.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Harold Fannin Jr. ($3,900) Cleveland Browns (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (40.5 total)
Judkins’ fellow rookie Harold Fannin Jr. should also be in a great spot for the Browns in Sunday’s matchup against Miami. The Dolphins have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season, including nine catches to the position last week in their loss to the Chargers.
In a favorable matchup with more work coming his way, Fannin had the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends in the aggregate projections this week, just edging out Trey McBride as a potential pay-up value.
Fannin could be lined up for a huge workload if David Njoku (knee) is unable to play after his knee injury sustained last week. Njoku tried to play through the issue twice before leaving the game, but his status isn’t clear for Week 7.
Especially with Njoku unavailable for some of the game, Fannin was extremely involved last week against the Steelers. He led the team with seven catches and 81 receiving yards and was second on the team in targets behind only Jerry Jeudy.
The rookie from Bowling Green has 28 catches in six games for 254 yards and a touchdown. He has at least four catches in four of those matchups and has at least 48 yards in three of those contests. Getting so much upside and a high volume of targets for under $4,000 is a great place to grab value, whether you use him as a value tandem along with Judkins or as a standalone play.
Pictured: Jayden Daniels
Photo Credit: Imagn
