It’s going to take a special kind of math genius to come up with an algorithm to spite some of the conference winners this year. We may only be a few weeks into conference play, but already, these races are shaping up to be a convoluted mess by the time Week 14 rolls around. The DFS picture is equally murky, but thankfully, we’ve got a collection of Mensa-quality minds to craft the equations needed to isolate key fantasy pieces. That’s the case again, as we head into another rousing slate of Week 7 action.
We’ve got you covered for DFS purposes, highlighting our preferred players from Saturday’s main slate.
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Or if cash games are more your speed, you can build your lineups alongside our projections with our Lineup Builder. From there, you can hand-build your lineup or lock in a few guys and let the builder optimize the rest based on our projections.
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Let’s dive into this week’s slate!
CFB DFS Quarterback Picks
Haynes King (Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets): $9,400 DraftKings
It’s been a few weeks since we shone a light on Haynes King, but he has been up to his usual antics. We’re taking a stance on King again, as the Yellow Jackets tear through a porous Virginia Tech Hokies defense.
King remains the FBS’s premier dual-threat quarterback. The Texas native has led Georgia Tech to a perfect 5-0 record, a distinction that is likely to improve against V-Tech. Across that five-game sample, King is completing 68.5% of his passes for a respectable 189.5 yards and three touchdowns. He had a season-best throwing performance last time out, hurling the pigskin for 243 yards and a score.
However, King continues to separate himself from the rest of the fantasy pack with his elite rushing abilities. The senior has eclipsed 19 rushing attempts in three of his last four, while surpassing the century mark in yards in all but one of those contests. Altogether, King is averaging 95.0 rushing yards per game while accumulating seven rushing touchdowns on the season.
This isn’t the same Hokies’ defense we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in years past. They continue to get burned by inferior opponents and don’t possess the faculties to limit King and the Yellow Jackets. Assuredly, King will reach his fantasy ceiling and end the day as one of the top performers on the main slate.
Brendan Sorsby (Cincinnati Bearcats): $7,700 DraftKings
The Cincinnati Bearcats are trying to climb the Big 12 ranks and put together a playoff-caliber resume. While they face a daunting climb, the Bearcats should have no problem disposing of the UCF Knights in Week 7. Brendan Sorsby will have his offense ready to go, and we expect him to deliver a season-best performance at home.
Cincinnati enters Saturday’s conference battle as chalky -10.5 favorites. However, that position is reflected in their underlying metrics. Thanks to Sorsby, the Bearcats operate one of the most efficient offensive units in the country, ranking 15th in total offense and 17th in scoring offense. Predictably, that success rests on Sorby’s capable shoulders.
After a dismal start against Nebraska to open the season, Sorsby has rattled off four consecutive game-changing performances. Across the more recent four-game sample, the Bearcats’ gunslinger has thrown for an average of 297.0 yards and 3.0 touchdowns per game. Moreover, he’s completing 69.4% of his passes, underscoring his elite throwing abilities against any defense.
While UCF has solid defensive metrics, it has yet to take on a quality opponent. Moreover, they’ve dropped two straight against lesser-than Big 12 opponents while giving up a combined 61 points and 790 yards of total offense. That sets the stage for another robust performance from Sorsby, making him the premier value quarterback on the main slate.
CFB DFS Running Back Picks
Jamal Haynes (Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets) $6,800 DraftKings
Usually, we employ a quarterback-wide receiver stacking method to maximize our fantasy production. However, we’re taking a different approach on the Week 7 main slate. Instead, we’re complementing Haynes King with the addition of fellow running back Jamal Haynes, trusting the Yellow Jackets will keep the ball on the turf versus the Hokies.
While King has been the primary rusher out of the Yellow Jackets’ backfield, Jamal Haynes has been a close 1B. Through five games, the senior running back has totaled 311 rushing yards on 59 carries, adding 124 receiving yards on 15 receptions. Still, there are indicators supporting a resurgent effort from Haynes on Saturday’s main slate.
Specifically, Haynes is coming off his worst performance of the season. He mustered just 21 yards on 10 carries against Wake Forest, putting him significantly below his usual efficiency rating. With his latest performance, Haynes’ yards per carry has fallen to 5.3, dropping him off his career average of 5.8 and even further off his previous career-best of 6.1. Naturally, we’re expecting sincere progression from the Yellow Jackets’ running back over the next few games.
Haynes’ ascent starts in Week 7’s clash versus Virginia Tech. The Hokies sit in the middle of the FBS pack, giving up an average of 130.0 rushing yards per game, with Vanderbilt and Old Dominion churning out 262 and 230 rushing yards, respectively. Georgia Tech will be the latest team to expose those run defense flaws, and Jamal Haynes will be a significant contributor.
Dean Conners (Houston Cougars) $7,900 DraftKings
Any time a team is taking on the Oklahoma State Cowboys, there’s a good chance the offense will show off. That’s what we’re counting on in Week 7, as the Houston Cougars travel for a Big 12 showdown against their conference rivals. Houston’s passing attack has been nonexistent this season, but Dean Conners has been the remedy for those passing woes.
Conners has asserted himself as the Cougars’ premier rushing option. The Hawaii native leads the team in carries and rushing yards while also serving as an outlet in the passing game. Through five games, Conners has accumulated 355 rushing and 68 receiving yards, for 84.6 total yards per game. That steady presence has earned him a more robust workload, with the running back averaging 17.3 rushing attempts and 2.7 targets over his last three outings.
It’s hard to describe just how bad the Cowboys’ defense is, but their metrics are a good starting point. Oklahoma State ranks 132nd in total defense and 130th in scoring defense, getting burned for 474.0 yards and 36.2 points. Somehow, that standard has lowered in recent weeks. In two conference games, opponents are up to 43.0 points and a mind-numbing 545.0 yards per game.
The Cougars are hefty road chalk, and while they may be undeserving of their -14.5 designation, they should have no problem putting up points and yards against the Cowboys. Undoubtedly, Conners will make his presence felt and blow past the implied value of his $7,700 salary.
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CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State Buckeyes) $9,000
There are a few marquee position players on the Week 7 main slate. But few will be able to replicate the standard we’re expecting from Jeremiah Smith, as his Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Illinois Fighting Illini.
Let’s rewind to Week 4, when the Indiana Hoosiers hosted the Fighting Illini in Big Ten play. In that contest, the Hoosiers wowed their home faithful, torching their guests for 579 yards and 63 points. That may have been the low point for Illinois, but those defensive concerns have continued in subsequent weeks. They gave up 490 yards (364 passing) to USC and 453 yards (302 passing) to Purdue in each of their next two games.
Jeremiah Smith and the Buckeyes’ passing attack are vastly superior to anything that Illinois has already failed to stop. The Heisman Trophy frontrunner has already pulled down 463 receiving yards on 35 receptions while finding the end zone in four straight contests. Further, his 77.7% catch rate and 13.2 yards per reception put him among college football’s elite in terms of pass-catching metrics.
This one could get out of hand. Smith is a DFS gold mine, and Illinois has had no answers for inferior passing attacks. This will be the performance of the season, and Smith is the DFS superstar that everyone should prioritize on Saturday.
Jordan Faison (Notre Dame Fighting Irish) $4,500
We intentionally skipped past Jeremiyah Love for two reasons. First, Jeremiah Smith is the $9,000 player to target. Second, we expect more involvement from Jordan Faison in Saturday’s affair versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack. At a discounted rate, he’s exactly the kind of player needed to offset Smith’s ballooned salary.
It’s not reflected in his $4,500 salary, but Faison has been a reliable pass-catching option for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish all season. He leads the team in targets, receptions, and yards, while serving as the first look in CJ Carr’s progressions. More importantly, we’ve seen Faison become a more focal point in recent weeks. The Florida native has led the team in targets in two straight games, pulling down 13 of the 15 passes thrown his way.
Credit to NC State for its 4-2 record, but those victories have come in spite of its inadequate defensive standards. The Wolfpack rank 102nd in the country, giving up an average of 233.3 passing yards per game, including 260.5 in two road games.
Surprisingly, North Carolina State is much better at defending the run, pointing toward more involvement from Notre Dame’s aerial assault. If things play out as expected, Love will take a back seat to the passing game, making Faison one of the most underappreciated fantasy studs on the main slate.
Jayce Brown (Kansas State Wildcats) $7,700
After three disastrous losses in four games to open the season, it was easy to dismiss the Kansas State Wildcats. But they’ve shown signs of rebirth in recent weeks. We expect them to show plenty of fight as they host the TCU Horned Frogs as plus-money underdogs on Saturday.
While the offense as a whole has looked uninspired, Jayce Brown is almost single-handedly trying to bring the Wildcats back to life. He sits first on the team in every receiving category, punctuated by his 13.5 yards per reception and four touchdowns.
A consistent deep threat, Brown has shown the versatility to find openings on his entire tree route. He’s coming off a 106-yard performance against Baylor, including a game-best 48-yard reception, but is equally comfortable on short and intermediate routes.
TCU is another team that has benefited from an imposing defensive front against the run but is less effective at defending the pass. The Horned Frogs give up over 234 passing yards per game, representing the low bar in terms of Kansas State production.
Jayce Brown may have fallen off most people’s radars, but he will give them plenty to talk about on Saturday. Include him as a wide receiver on any roster or in any format.
Pictured: Haynes King
Photo Credit: Imagn
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