DraftKings NASCAR DFS Picks for Kansas: Fantasy NASCAR Strategy and Picks for the Hollywood Casino 400

After an 18-race break, NASCAR heads back to the classic 1.5-mile track for its second race at Kansas Speedway.

Last time at Kansas, my practice FLAGS data was super predictive of race speed, so I’ll be relying heavily on it this week, in addition to track history, recent form, and similar track history.

Additionally, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.

My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.

Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway.

Hollywood Casino 400 DraftKings DFS Core Picks

Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.

Kyle Larson ($11,000): Larson was far and away the fastest car in my practice FLAGS metric, with only teammate William Byron and Denny Hamlin in the same zip code.

Does that sound familiar? It should, because that’s the exact same opening sentence I typed the last time NASCAR was at Kansas.

Larson went on to a perfect race that weekend, taking pole, winning both stages, scoring the fastest lap of the race, and winning the race.

Instead of from pole, Larson will start third. But that still makes him the favored dominator again this weekend.

William Byron ($10,000): Byron was second in practice FLAGS and will start 11th, giving him plenty of place-differential potential to fit in with Larson should his Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) teammate dominate.

Byron finished second in this very race last year, and he also has a third and a sixth to his name in seven Next Gen Kansas starts.

Austin Cindric ($7200): The fastest of the three Team Penske cars in practice, Cindric rolls off 26th, giving him tons of place-differential potential, especially knowing he had the fifth-best practice FLAGS time and the ninth-best tire falloff score.

Cindric finished sixth at Kansas’ sister track, Las Vegas, earlier this year, and he also scored an 11th at Kansas earlier this year, showing he’s had speed at this track type.

Hollywood Casino 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks

Christopher Bell ($10,200): Of the high-dollar drivers, Bell is the one who ranks highest in leverage, projecting nearly 8% under-rostered when we compare his ownership projection to his Perfect% projection.

Bell was fourth in FLAGS, leading the way behind the big three of Larson, Byron, and Hamlin, so he has just as good a shot as any driver to dominate outside those three, especially starting from fifth.

Ryan Preece ($6900): Preece was ninth in FLAGS and also had the second-best tire falloff score, making him one of four drivers along with Larson, Byron, and Cindric to crack the top 10 in both.

By starting 19th, his ownership won’t be through the roof, so we’re getting a potential top-10 car at a cheap price tag who won’t be severely over-rostered.

Zane Smith ($5500): In the punt territory, Zane Smith almost feels like an every-week play, but here we are again.

As I talked about on the Running Hot podcast, the Front Row Motorsports (FRM) cars have had great finishes at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, going 7-for-7 at finishing between 10th and 18th in the three-race, 1.5-mile stretch of Texas, Kansas, and Charlotte when removing the two DNFs.

Smith also popped in practice, placing 11th in FLAGS, and he was mid-pack in falloff score, meaning he’s not much better or worse relative to the field in how much his tires wore over the course of a run.

Pictured: Kyle Larson
Photo credit: Eric Canha, Imagn