NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown for Chiefs vs. Giants Sunday Night Football (9/21)

Sunday Night Football in Week 3 features a matchup between two winless squads. One of those was completely expected. The Giants entered the year with one of the lowest preseason win totals in football, and while they were competitive last week, they’ve ultimately lost consecutive games to the Commanders and Cowboys.

However, the other winless squad is a bit more surprising. The Chiefs have been the NFL gold standard since Patrick Mahomes took over at QB, but they’re starting to lose some luster. Their offense has faltered over the past year and a half, and they suffered losses to the Chargers and Eagles to begin this season. Add in the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles last season, and it’s the first three-game losing streak of Mahomes’ career.

Can they right the ship on Sunday night? They’re currently listed as six-point road favorites vs. the Giants, while the total sits at 44.5 points.

Let’s dive into all the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here if you want to use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced NFL DFS lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Is it time to start considering Malik Nabers one of the best receivers in the league? That might be a bit premature, but he’s certainly one of the best receivers in fantasy. He was an absolute target monster for the Giants as a rookie, leading all players with a massive 35% target share. He also had a 46% air yards share and 45% of the team’s end zone targets, giving him arguably the best utilization in the entire league. The only issue was that he was playing for a subpar offense, which meant that he was getting a massive share of a relatively small pie. The Giants ranked just 30th in yards and 31st in points per game last season.

It’s only been two weeks, but the offense is off to a much better start in 2025. They’re currently sixth in yards per game, and they’re up to 18th in points. Most of that damage came last week vs. the Cowboys, so we’ll see if they can keep it up.

If they can, Nabers is poised for a monster year. He’s dominating the aerial usage for the Giants once again, racking up a 33% target share, 57% air yards share, and 67% end zone share. He has at least 12 targets in back-to-back weeks, and he erupted for nine catches, 167 yards, and two touchdowns vs. the Cowboys.

The Chiefs’ defense was solid last season, but they’re off to a rough start. They’re merely 26th in EPA per play defensively, and they’re 25th against the pass.

Ultimately, Nabers stands out as the clear top non-quarterback on this slate. His ceiling projection is eight points higher than the next non-QB, though both quarterbacks do have him edged at cheaper price tags.

Conversely, it’s getting harder and harder to trust Mahomes as a high-end fantasy quarterback. It’s not entirely his fault. He’s had to deal with a lack of weapons over the past few seasons, especially with Travis Kelce starting to show his age. Things aren’t going to get any easier for him in Week 3, with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy both still out of the lineup.

Mahomes has made up for his lack of passing options by using his legs a lot more in 2025. He’s averaged 6.5 rushing attempts per game through two weeks, which is nearly double his mark from last season. He’s also been extremely efficient, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt. That’s more than four yards higher than his career average, so he’s probably due for some regression in that department. Still, it’s a nice development for fantasy purposes. Even with Mahomes struggling with his arm, he’s currently sitting at QB4 in terms of fantasy points per game.

Mahomes gets his best matchup of the early season by a sizable amount on Sunday. The Chargers and Eagles are both tough defenses, but the Giants are one of the worst in the league. Their first two opponents have shredded them, and they’re currently No. 23 in pass defense EPA. Ultimately, they’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Mahomes stands out as the clear top option on this slate. He leads all players in every projection across the board, including median, ceiling, and Plus/Minus. That should result in massive ownership, but his optimal lineup rate is roughly 15% higher than the next best player in Sim Labs.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

It has been a tale of two games for Russell Wilson to start the year. He looked old in his first outing, finishing with 11.42 DraftKings points vs. the Commanders, but he bounced back with a monster performance in Week 2. He threw for 450 yards – the second most of his entire career – and he added three touchdowns. His 34.3 DraftKings points made him the second-highest-scoring QB of the week, trailing only Jared Goff.

While that is a nice sign for Wilson, it stands out as a clear outlier. We’ve seen plenty of Wilson over the past few years, and he has been a middling fantasy quarterback at best. He was QB19 in terms of fantasy points per game last year.

The good news is that Wilson draws another plus matchup this week, and he could get a bit of help on the offensive line. Andrew Thomas is expected to suit up for the first time all season, and he’s the team’s best blocker. Wilson’s best trait is his ability to throw the deep ball, and he could do a bit more of that with Thomas in the lineup.

Ultimately, Wilson stands out as one of the better pure values on the slate. Quarterbacks always have appeal in the single-game format, and Wilson is pretty cheap for his upside. He makes for a natural stacking partner with Nabers, with the two players looking highly correlated through the first two weeks.

Hollywood Brown stands out as the Chiefs’ top remaining option in the passing game. He was extremely busy in Week 1, racking up a whopping 16 targets vs. the Ravens. That was good for a 40% target share overall, which he converted into 10 catches for 99 yards.

However, his role took a sizable hit in Week 2. His route participation dipped from 98% to 79%, while his target share dipped to just 19%. The targets that he did see were also extremely low-value. His average depth of target (aDOT) was just 4.0 yards, and he accounted for just 7% of the team’s air yards.

Brown’s overall usage numbers for the year still look good, but his price tag could be a bit inflated after an outlier Week 1.

Kelce is the other top option in the Chiefs’ passing attack, though he hasn’t looked it through two weeks. He’s garnered just 10 targets, good for just a 15% target share. The good news is that he was at least up to 22% in Week 2 after seeing just 9% of the targets in Week 1.

Kelce has a long track record of success, but at nearly 36 years old, it’s possible that he’s past his prime. However, the Chiefs may have no choice but to feed him the ball with their banged-up receiving corps. The Giants surrendered plenty of looks to Jake Ferguson at tight end last week, and they allowed a touchdown to Zach Ertz in Week 1. Ultimately, they’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position to start the year. He stands out as one of the better options in this price range.

Nabers isn’t the only Giants’ receiver coming off a big game. Wan’Dale Robinson racked up a career-best 142 yards, and he even added a touchdown. He had 10 targets after seeing eight in Week 1, giving him a solid 27% target share for the year.

While Robinson isn’t typically going to generate a ton of big plays, he has a solid floor in PPR formats. His aDOT is likely going to look much closer to his Week 1 mark (3.3) than his Week 2 mark (16.7) for most of the year. That gives him the opportunity to rack up receptions and a decent chance to pay off his current salary.

Both of these backfields are in a bit of flux at the moment. The Chiefs were expected to feature a clear lead back in Isiah Pacheco, but that hasn’t exactly been the case through two weeks. He’s split the workload pretty evenly with Kareem Hunt, with Pacheco logging 50% of the rushing attempts to Hunt’s 43%.

Unfortunately, Pacheco hasn’t garnered a ton of the “high value” touches through two weeks. He’s played on just 18% of the short-yardage snaps, and he’s at just 10% in long-yardage situations. That limits his touchdown upside and passing-catching potential.

Ultimately, there’s still a chance that Pacheco grabs this job by the reins. He’s the more talented back of the two, so he could see more opportunities as the year progresses. That said, he’s very tough to trust with how things have shaken out in the first two weeks.

The Giants also appear to have a clear committee on their hands. Tyrone Tracy took over the starting job last season, and he was their clear top option in Week 1. He handled 73% of the snaps and 59% of the carries, and he also had a respectable 11% target share.

However, Cam Skattebo seemingly overtook him in the pecking order in Week 2. He saw more snaps and carries than Tracy last week, and he’s had all the inside-the-five opportunities through their first two contests. That makes him the clear preferred option of the two.

Tracy should still continue to mix in on passing downs, but there’s a chance that Skattebo makes this an even larger split moving forward. He could handle 60+% of the rushes vs. the Chiefs, and he’s much more likely to find the end zone.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Giants’ Defense is the cheapest option of the group, but they lead the group in projected Plus/Minus. However, Harrison Butker has the best optimal lineup rate of the quartet in Sim Labs, while the Chiefs’ Defense has the biggest discrepancy between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership.
• Tyquan Thornton ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Thornton is getting an opportunity to shine with the Chiefs down their top two receivers. He’s had an 80% route participation through the first two weeks, and he’s been their clear top deep threat. He’s racked up 51% of the team’s air yards, and that resulted in a 49-yard touchdown vs. the Eagles. He has plenty of upside vs. a weak Giants’ secondary.
• Darius Slayton ($4,200 DraftKings, $3,400 FanDuel) – Slayton has garnered just a 5% target share through two weeks, but he’s been on the field for nearly every passing play. He has a 99% route participation, so there are opportunities for him to get more involved moving forward. Most of his opportunities come way downfield – his aDOT is 17.0 yards for the year – so he has some potential.
• Kareem Hunt ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) – Hunt seems like the better of the Chiefs’ RBs at the moment. He’s a bit cheaper, and he’s the more likely of the two to score a touchdown. He’s handled the majority of the short-yardage opportunities, so don’t be surprised if he gets the call if the Chiefs are around the goal line.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) – Like Slayton, getting on the field has not been an issue for Smith-Schuster. His route participation is around 80% through the first two weeks; he just hasn’t earned many targets.
• Theo Johnson ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) – Johnson has been the Giants’ clear No. 1 TE, playing on 74% of the team’s passing plays. That hasn’t led to much production, but he’s another player with the potential to improve moving forward.
• Jalen Royals ($2,800 DraftKings, $1,800 FanDuel) – Royals is the big x-factor in the Chiefs’ passing attack. The rookie has yet to suit up this season, but he’s appears set to make his debut in Week 3. How much he’ll be on the field remains to be seen, but the Chiefs are pretty desperate for playmakers. He’s a high-risk, high-reward option.
• Noah Gray ($2,000 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel) – Gray was a decent part of the Chiefs’ offense last season, and his route rate improved to 50% in Week 2.
• Brashard Smith ($400 DraftKings, $2,400 FanDuel) – Given that Pacheco and Hunt have both been inefficient through two weeks, it’s possible that Smith starts to factor more into the equation.

Pictured: Patrick Mahomes
Photo Credit: Imagn