Wide receivers are the backbone of your NFL DFS lineups. It’s a spot where you’ll need massive production if you’re going to take down a GPP, but it’s also a spot where you can save money on occasion. Some of the best values in a given week are likely to be found at the receiver position.
In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Tetairoa McMillan ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)
Pricing rookies is one of the most difficult exercises for the various DFS sites in Week 1. Oftentimes, rookie receivers can end up being some of the best values on the board. That appears to be the case this week, with rookies occupying the top two spots in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel (using the Sean Koerner projections).
McMillan stands out as the top dog. He was a bit of a polarizing prospect, with prototypical 6’4” size, but he did not test athletically at the combine. Some thought he lacked the top-end athleticism that you would typically look for in a first-round receiver, but that wasn’t much of an issue in college. He broke out as a true freshman, turning 39 grabs into 702 yards and eight scores, and he followed that up with big campaigns in his final two seasons.
McMillan should step in as the Panthers’ No. 1 wide receiver right out of the gates. He has minimal target competition, especially with Jalen Coker banged up and Adam Thielen being traded to the Vikings. McMillan was targeted on more than 26% of his routes run during his most extensive preseason contest, and that usage could easily carry over to the regular season.
McMillan gets an interesting matchup in Week 1 vs. the Jaguars. The Jags did add a “cornerback” in the draft with Travis Hunter, but it sounds like he’s going to play offense more than defense to start the year. The Jags allowed the fifth-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers last year, and they were dead last in pass defense EPA. They still figure to be a plus opponent.
Ultimately, how big a rookie campaign McMillan can have will come down to Bryce Young. He showed some major progress at the end of last season, so it’s reasonable to be optimistic about his No. 1 option. He’s a WR2 with WR1 upside who’s priced like a WR3.
Emeka Egbuka ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)
As good as McMillan might be, Egbuka might be the most exciting rookie receiver in Week 1. He’s a bit cheaper across the industry, but unlike McMillan, there are zero questions about his offense. The Buccaneers had an elite passing attack last season, and there’s no reason to expect a ton of decline in 2025.
Egbuka should step right into a massive workload in his first professional contest. He’s drawn rave reviews all offseason, and the team is still without Chris Godwin. That should keep him on the field for the majority of passing plays.
The Bucs are in a great spot to put some points on the board in Week 1. They’re taking on the Falcons, who were 25th in pass defense EPA last season. They allowed the third-most PPR points per game to opposing receivers, and this game is tied for the top over/under on the slate at 47.5 points.
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
It’s hard to fully articulate just how dominant Chase was last season. He led the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, and only Lamar Jackson averaged more PPR points per game. The gap between Chase and the rest of the position was basically as large as you’ll ever see.
That still doesn’t tell the full story. Chase is capable of turning in some absolutely nuclear performances. When he hits his ceiling, it feels like you can’t win unless he’s on your roster. He had three games with at least 44.3 DraftKings points last season, including a ridiculous 58.6 DraftKings points in one matchup vs. the Ravens. There are only seven games of a WR eclipsing 55 DraftKings points in our Trends database, and three of them are by Chase.
The only negative with Chase (and the rest of the Bengals) is that they tend to start the year slowly. However, they’re aware of those issues, and they played their starters in the preseason to try to get them up to speed quicker. Chase unsurprisingly dominated in his limited preseason usage, catching all five of his targets for 88 yards and a touchdown.
If you’re going to pay up at receiver, Chase is the clear top choice. He has the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models by more than three points, and the Bengals figure to be an offensive goldmine once again. They are among the best offensive teams in the league, and with how bad their defense will likely be again in 2025, they’re going to have to do a lot to win ball games.
Drake London ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
London is a nice combination of value and upside in Week 1. He has the top projected Plus/Minus among receivers priced above $5,200 on DraftKings, and he ranks sixth in ceiling projection. He ranks merely ninth in DraftKings price tag, so that’s a solid combination.
London has been a reliable receiver for most of his career, despite dealing with subpar quarterback play. It remains to be seen if things will be any better in that department in 2025. Michael Penix Jr. made three starts at the end of his rookie season, and he ultimately wasn’t all that impressive (58.0 completion percentage, 6.66 adjusted yards per attempt, three touchdowns, three interceptions).
However, London’s usage in Penix’s three starts is extremely encouraging. He was one of the biggest target hogs in football in those contests, racking up a 39% target share, 60% air yards share, and 100% of the end zone targets. He had a target share of at least 35% in all three games and capped things off with a monster showing in his final contest, catching 10 of 18 targets for 187 yards and two scores.
If Penix continues to lock in on London like he did as a rookie, he could easily become one of the top receivers in fantasy. He’s worth having some exposure to in one way or another.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
Thomas looks like the next great LSU receiver. They seem to produce nearly one a year at this point, so it’s not exactly a huge shock. Expectations weren’t super high for Thomas as a rookie, but he racked up 133 targets, 87 receptions, 1,282 yards, and 10 scores. It was enough to finish as the No. 4 receiver in PPR scoring.
Thomas really took off after his Week 12 bye. From Week 13 on, he averaged 11.7 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 98.8 receiving yards, and he added five touchdowns in those six outings. He garnered a massive 35% target share and 52% air yards share over that stretch, so he was being fed like a true alpha receiver.
Thomas will have a bit more competition for touches with Hunter in town, but Thomas should still be the team’s unquestioned top receiver. Hunter is going to have to focus at least partially on defense, while Thomas is free to devote all of his stamina to catching the ball. Given how well he performed as a rookie, there’s no reason to expect much of a step back.
Ultimately, no receiver is showing up with a higher DraftKings optimal lineup rate on Sim Labs than Thomas. He is expected to be one of the highest-owned options for tournaments, but he still has a positive leverage score.
Tee Higgins ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
While Chase got all the headlines for the Bengals last season – and deservedly so – don’t sleep on what Higgins brought to the table. If not for a couple of injuries, he also could’ve put together a phenomenal season.
In fact, Higgins was sixth among receivers in terms of PPR points per game when he was healthy enough to play. He wasn’t as consistent as Chase, but he scored at least 17.9 PPR points in seven of his 12 contests. Higgins was slightly limited when he first returned, so his “hit rate” was even higher than it looks on paper.
From a ceiling standpoint, Higgins is right up there with any receiver not named “Chase”. He had three games with at least 29.3 PPR points last year, including one with more than 40. In terms of underlying metrics, the gap between Chase and Higgins was minimal. Higgins had a 24% target share to Chase’s 28%, while Higgins actually had a higher percentage of air yards.
Essentially, the Bengals have two WR1s for fantasy purposes, and while Chase should be very popular on Sunday, Higgins could fly a bit under the radar.
Mike Evans ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
Death. Taxes. Mike Evans. These are life’s three great certainties. Evans was limited to just 14 games last season, but it didn’t stop him from hitting 1,000 yards for the 11th straight season to begin his career. He also added 11 touchdowns, and he’s now had at least 11 scores in four of the past five years.
With Godwin on the sidelines to start the year, Evans could put a huge dent into his 1,000-yard goal to start the year. Egbuka and Jalen McMillan are viable complementary pieces, but Evans is still going to be the main man. From Week 12 on last season – all games played without Godwin – Evans racked up 30% of the targets, 43% of the air yards, and 42% of the end zone targets. Those are elite WR1 numbers.
He had 23.2 DraftKings points in his lone meeting with the Falcons last year, and he finished the season with at least 17.9 DraftKings points in four of his last five contests. Expect him to pick up right where he left off.
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Deebo Samuel ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
Samuel is the shiny new toy in Washington after being traded away by the 49ers this offseason. Samuel has accumulated a lot of injuries over the past few seasons, and he’ll turn 30 years old during the season. He also plays a bruising, physical style, so it’s possible that he’s past his prime at this point.
Still, the Commanders are going to do everything possible to make their investment look smart. They ran WR screens at the sixth-highest frequency last season, and Samuel could be the biggest beneficiary of those looks in 2025. He’s elite with the ball in his hands after the catch, so he’s a natural fit in that role.
Ultimately, Deebo could be a bit undervalued in Week 1 vs. the Giants. This game doesn’t have a particularly appealing total, but as solid home favorites, the Commanders still rank second in terms of implied points. No receiver is popping with a higher differential between their higher optimal lineup rate and projected ownership on DraftKings, making him a phenomenal tournament target.
Ricky Pearsall ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel)
Is the 49ers’ offense back? We’ll start to find out in Week 1. Things aren’t off to a great start with Christian McCaffrey popping up on the injury report, but Brock Purdy still put together a solid year under suboptimal circumstances in 2024. They were historically good in 2023, and with the team closer to full strength, it’s possible they can get close to that level.
If that’s going to happen, the team is going to need Pearsall to step up in his second season. He missed most of his rookie campaign, but he’ll open the year as a starter with Brandon Aiyuk still rehabbing from injury. Pearsall is an intriguing prospect, bringing elite athleticism to the table. He ranks in the 90th percentile for 40-yard dash time at the receiver position, and he’s in the 97th percentile or better in Burst Score, Athleticism Score, and catch radius (per Player Profiler). With more opportunities in 2025, he could be a breakout receiver in Kyle Shanahan’s elite system.
If you’re looking to go more contrarian with the 49ers, Jauan Jennings ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) is also in play. He’s a bit more expensive, but he has much more success at the NFL level. He’s also projected for less than 5% ownership across the industry.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
The Seahawks are one of the many teams that will undergo a quarterback change in 2025. Geno Smith is out and Sam Darnold is in, and we’ll see how that impacts the Seahawks’ pass-catchers. Seattle was fifth in Pass Rate Over Expectation last year, and they were No. 1 in that department in the red zone. It’s possible that they go with a more balanced approach with Darnold, but we won’t know until the season starts.
That said, regardless of how often the Seahawks drop back, Smith-Njigba should take a step forward from a target standpoint. He formed a 1A/1B tandem with DK Metcalf last season, but Metcalf was traded to the Steelers in the offseason. That opens the door for JSN to become more of a target hog in 2025.
JSN only played two games without Metcalf last year, but he had a 33% target share in those outings. The team didn’t make a ton of additions to their receiving corps this offseason, signing just a potentially over-the-hill player in Cooper Kupp and using a fifth-round selection on Tory Horton. Those are expected to be Smith-Njigba’s top competition for targets, so a 30+% target share is well within the range of possibility.
Jayden Higgins ($4,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel)
Higgins is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, making him a very interesting punt play. There are a bunch of strong RBs to consider in Week 1, so punting your WR3 spot is definitely viable.
Higgins was taken with the 34th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and he should open the year as the Texans’ No. 2 receiver. Stefon Diggs is gone, Tank Dell is still recovering from injury, and Christian Kirk is not expected to suit up vs. the Rams. It should result in a solid workload, making him a strong point-per-dollar investment. He’ll be considerably less popular than Nico Collins, who is currently projected for roughly 20% ownership across the industry.
Pictured: Emeka Egbuka
Photo Credit: Imagn
