If you’re staring down a mid-first-round pick in your redraft league, you’ll probably see Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry on the board. Both are fantasy legends, and the experts are clear. FantasyLabs’ Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon each rank Barkley well ahead of Henry for season-long formats heading into 2025 in their fantasy football rankings.
Of course, that doesn’t mean it’s automatic. Barkley is younger and, theoretically, the higher-upside option, but Henry still has a real shot to finish as the better player this season.
Let’s break down why the Ravens’ elder statesman isn’t done just yet.
And don’t forget to sign up for your fantasy football league on Yahoo Sports!
The Case for Barkley
Barkley is coming off his first year with the Eagles, where he capped the season by winning a Super Bowl. His 2024 stat line was eye-popping: 345 carries for 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Add 33 catches for 278 yards, and you’ve got a back who ranked at the top of the league in total touches.
The Eagles offense is loaded. Saquon was obviously the focal point in his first year, but is he guaranteed to enjoy as much success this season? Teams have had all offseason to try and scheme for Barkley and the rest of Philadelphia’s offense on the heels of their title run.
He’s younger than Henry and has fewer career carries. That’s part of why the experts slot him into the overall RB2 range.
The Case for Henry
Henry is a different beast. In his first season with Baltimore, he ran for 1,921 yards on 325 carries and scored 16 touchdowns. He also added 19 catches for 193 yards, showing more involvement in the passing game than people expected.
Another factor working in Henry’s favor is how Baltimore uses him situationally. The Ravens don’t rely on him to catch 60–70 passes a year like some backs, which can help to preserve his body from extra hits in space. Yet, he’s still involved enough in the passing game to keep defenses honest, as we saw with his 19 receptions last season. This balance maximizes his impact without overexposing him to unnecessary wear and tear.
It’s also important to remember that Henry’s touchdown equity is massive in Baltimore’s system. Defenses have to commit extra resources to stopping Jackson on designed runs or read-options, leaving Henry with favorable matchups at the goal line. His 16 touchdowns last season were the product of a scheme that sets him up to succeed, especially in red-zone situations.
While you worry about his age and mileage, the way Baltimore deploys him alongside Jackson may extend his fantasy prime rather than cut it short. In a time where running back stability is hard to come by, Henry still looks like a safe bet, even at 31.
Baltimore’s run-happy scheme is perfect for him. With Jackson keeping defenses honest, Henry had room to punish teams at the second level. That kind of workload is exactly what makes him dangerous to fade.
Dominate your Best Ball and season-long fantasy football leagues with our brand-new app that’s available in the Apple App Store and on Android!
Red Zone Reality: Hurts vs. Lamar
This is where the Barkley pick gets tricky. Jalen Hurts is the best short-yardage weapon in football, and the Eagles have no reason to stop running the tush push. Barkley might get plenty of work between the 20s, but when it’s first-and-goal from the 1, it’s usually Hurts who finishes the drive.
Henry doesn’t have that problem. Lamar Jackson is a running QB, but Baltimore doesn’t call designed sneaks in the same way Philly does. Inside the 5, the Ravens are happy to line Henry up and let him bulldoze his way into the end zone.
That means Henry has a clearer path to double-digit touchdowns, even if Barkley racks up more total yards. More importantly, fantasy football is often decided by those high-leverage touches. Losing even a handful of red-zone carries can swing a player’s season-long output by 20–30 points, which is the difference between RB3 and RB10 territory.
Another layer here is predictability. Defenses know the tush push is coming when Philly lines up near the goal line, and they still can’t stop it. That’s great for the Eagles but frustrating for Barkley investors. With Baltimore, you know Henry will be the centerpiece when the Ravens get in close. That reliability is exactly what fantasy managers seek when deciding between two elite backs.
The Post-2,000-Yard Hangover: Barkley Could Be Due for a Decline
History doesn’t love repeat performances from 2,000-yard rushers. Of the nine backs who reached that mark before Barkley last season, most saw massive production declines the following year, even when healthy.
Here’s how they fared.
How 2,000-Yard Rushers Fared the Following Year
| RB | 2,000-Yard Season | Rushing Yards The Next Season | Notes |
| Eric Dickerson | 2,105 | 1,234 | Played 14 games |
| Adrian Peterson | 2,097 | 1,266 | Played 14 games |
| Jamal Lewis | 2,066 | 1,006 | Played 12 games |
| Barry Sanders | 2,053 | 1,491 | Played 16 games |
| Terrell Davis | 2,008 | 211 | Played 4 games |
| Chris Johnson | 2,006 | 1,364 | Played 16 games |
| Derrick Henry | 2,027 | 937 | Played 8 games |
| OJ Simpson | 2,003 | 1,125 | Played 14 games |
| Saquon Barkley | 2,005 | TBD | Played 16 games |
Looking at history, the 2,000-yard club has one thing in common: regression almost always follows. Even the legends couldn’t sustain it. Barry Sanders fell by more than 500 yards the next season, Chris Johnson dropped over 600, and Adrian Peterson came back down to earth after his MVP run in 2012. The workload needed to reach that milestone tends to catch up fast.
That’s where the risk with Barkley comes in. He handled 345 carries last year, a career high, and nobody has ever eclipsed 2,000 yards in consecutive years. Even if he stays healthy, the odds say he’s more likely to land in the 1,400-1,600-yard range than repeat his 2024 dominance.
Henry’s case isn’t spotless either. After his 2,027-yard explosion, he managed just 937 yards the following season in eight games before the foot injury. In 2024, he barely missed topping 2,000 yards for the second time. Expecting that same efficiency at age 31 is admittedly risky, and Henry could certainly see a similar dropoff in production after such heavy usage a season ago.
Still, the red-zone role and Baltimore’s scheme make him less dependent on chasing another historic yardage season.
Why Henry Can Beat Barkley in 2025
Even though Barkley outgained Henry in yardage last year, Henry’s touchdown edge made up for it. His 16 rushing scores in 2024 showed he’s still one of the best goal-line backs in the league. With Baltimore leaning into his strength and giving him the ball in scoring position, that advantage could stick.
Barkley is the consensus pick, but Philly spreads the ball around more than Baltimore does. With A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Hurts all taking scoring chances, Barkley’s path is murkier. Henry doesn’t have to share as much. It’ll either be Henry or Jackson with the ball in their hands.
Final Take
If you want safety, Barkley’s your pick. He’s younger, tied to an elite offense, and projected for slightly more points by the experts. But if you’re chasing ceiling, Henry’s power and touchdown upside make him the back who could break fantasy yet again in 2025.
Barkley might be the better floor play, but Henry still has the juice to win you a league. Don’t be afraid to roll the dice on Henry.
