Every year, fantasy football drafts are littered with landmines. We’re talking about players whose name recognition or last year’s stats lead them to be overdrafted in season-long formats. But smart managers know that Average Draft Position (ADP) doesn’t always align with expert evaluations.
To help you avoid the duds, we cross-referenced 2025 ADPs in season-long PPR leagues with two of the sharpest minds in the industry: FantasyLabs’ Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner. We’ve cobbled together a shortlist of players being drafted significantly higher than where our experts have them ranked. These aren’t random deep-league fliers either; these are big-name players who could sink your season if you reach for them on draft day.
Here are five of the biggest busts based on our expert vs. ADP gap.
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Javonte Williams, RB, Cowboys
Javonte Williams is shaping up to be one of the more overdrafted running backs in 2025 fantasy football, especially when you compare his ADP to where Raybon and Koerner have him ranked. In most consensus rankings, Williams is being drafted in the RB34 range, but both expert models have him much closer to RB43. That’s a fairly sizable gap. It’s a sign that drafters are still buying into his name value and early-career promise, not necessarily the player he is today.
Last season with Denver, Williams logged 139 carries for just 513 rushing yards – a middling 3.7 yards per carry – and found the end zone 4 times in 17 games. He added 52 catches for 346 yards through the air, but he failed to score on any of those receptions. Despite the volume, he never looked like the dynamic back we saw when he was as rookie. It’s worth noting he’s never exceeded 12 fantasy points per game in any of his four NFL seasons, and he’s entering a new situation with no guaranteed feature role in Dallas.
With the Cowboys, Williams is part of a crowded backfield that includes Miles Sanders, along with rookies Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah. Williams is reportedly getting some first-team reps in camp, but it’s early. If the Cowboys roll with some sort of committee in the backfield to begin the season, you’re likely not getting your money’s worth if you bet on him. Raybon has Williams as the RB53, which would make him the RB2…on his own team.
While you may retain some hope for a post-hype breakout, the experts say otherwise. Williams hasn’t regained his rookie form, and he’s now competing for work behind a Dallas offensive line that isn’t what it used to be. Investing in him as anything more than a late-round flier is asking for disappointment.
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Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
Not to pick on the Cowboys, but our experts are also more bearish on Dak Prescott’s prospects than much of the industry. Prescott’s name still carries clout, but Raybon is throwing some cold water on that reputation. While he’s being drafted as the QB12 overall, Raybon has him ranked way down as the QB21. Koerner, for what it’s worth, is still in the Prescott business, ranking him 11th among signal-callers.
Injuries have piled up over the past few years. Dak’s been held to 12 or fewer games in 2 of the last 3 seasons, including just 8 games a season ago. Before going down, it’s not like he was lighting it up, either. Prescott had 8 interceptions to just 11 touchdowns in those 8 games, while his completion percentage (64.7) was his lowest since 2017. Prescott is now 32, and he hasn’t supplied much in terms of rushing prowess since 2020. He has just 5 total rushing touchdowns in the last 4 years.
The addition of George Pickens gives Prescott another high-upside weapon next to CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, but the offensive line and running game are still question marks. I can’t imagine the Cowboys will be less prolific on the ground than they were last season, but it’s also hard to have a ton of faith in a total turnaround. Dallas is relying heavily on Dak and the passing game to carry the offense, and whether he’ll physically hold up under that weight is another unknown.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins
On the surface, Tua Tagovailoa’s fantasy resume doesn’t look half bad. He led the league in passing yards in 2023 and finished as the fantasy QB9. But if you’re taking him at his current ADP of QB16 in 2025, you might be buying long-lost upside rather than this year’s reality.
Let’s start with where the experts have him. Chris Raybon ranks Tua as QB20. Sean Koerner has him even lower at QB23. Both see him as more of a fringe QB2 than a reliable starter in 1-QB formats. And for good reason. In 2024, Tua missed six games with another concussion. That’s the second time in three seasons he’s missed significant time with head injuries, and at this point, the risk of re-injury is baked into the cake.
Even when he was on the field last year, the efficiency dipped. His average depth of target dropped to 5.9 – the lowest in the league – and while his completion percentage was a career-best 72.9%, it didn’t translate to fantasy fireworks. He managed just 19 touchdowns in 11 games, good for QB21 in total fantasy scoring.
Tua still offers strong efficiency in short-to-intermediate throws and gets to play pitch-and-catch with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But his lack of rushing upside and constant durability concerns make him a risky bet to finish inside the top 15 at the position. In a year where the late-round QB tier may be deeper than ever, Tua’s current ADP just doesn’t reflect his downside.
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Davante Adams, WR, Rams
Davante Adams is still being treated like an elite fantasy asset, but the context around him says he could be a disappointment. He’s going off the board around WR15, but Raybon has him ranked WR20, which suggests managers might be clinging to the version of Adams we saw in Green Bay several years ago.
Adams is now 32 years old and sharing targets with Puka Nacua with the Rams. He is no longer the unquestioned alpha in his offense as a result. That kind of target competition – and age curve – makes it tough to justify a Round 3 pick.
The transition from New York to Los Angeles also complicates things. Adams started last year with the Raiders but was traded midseason to the Jets, where he produced a respectable 67 catches for 854 yards and 7 touchdowns in 11 games. Now in LA, he’ll be filling the role vacated by Cooper Kupp, who was averaging similar production before fading down the stretch.
There’s a lot to like about Adams as a savvy route-runner and red zone threat, but the WR1 upside fantasy players once expected just isn’t there anymore. He’s not washed, but he’s no longer the centerpiece of an offense, either. At WR15, you’re paying for a ceiling he probably won’t hit in a secondary role at 32. Raybon’s WR20 ranking feels more appropriate, and anything higher than that is probably wishcasting.
Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa
Photo Credit: Imagn
