Same game parlays are one of the most entertaining ways to bet. It allows you to place multiple wagers over the same contest, giving you more upside than a traditional wager without having to sweat out multiple games.
It also allows you to build some correlation into your parlays. That correlation will be factored in by the sportsbooks, but that still creates an opportunity for bettors. You can build out bet slips where if one leg hits, it makes it more likely that the others will hit as well.
Let’s dive into my favorite same game parlay for Monday’s MLB slate, featuring the New York Mets versus the San Diego Padres.
Add this parlay to your bet slip with one click!
Padres Moneyline
Dylan Cease will be pitching like his job depends on it in the series opener between the San Diego Padres and New York Mets. Cease has been the subject of constant trade rumors, with the Padres purportedly looking to move on from their former ace. We’re forecasting a Cy Young-worthy performance from the righty at Petco Park on Monday.
Cease has tidied up his performances of late. The former Cy Young runner-up has given up just two earned runs across his last two starts, bringing his ERA down to 4.59. Still, ongoing correction is anticipated in the short term. Cease remains significantly ahead of his 3.48 expected ERA, implying that his season-long average should continue to decrease over his coming starts.
At the same time, New York’s bats haven’t been delivering, bolstering Cease’s outlook. While the Mets have won seven in a row, their collective OPS has fallen nearly 60 points over the past couple of weeks. They have a .318 on-base percentage and a .398 slugging percentage, below their respective season-long marks of .322 and .414.
The Mets are riding an unsustainable hot streak, and their underlying metrics are eroding. Combined with Cease’s current form and anticipated progression, we see value in backing the Padres in this spot.
Add this parlay to your bet slip with one click!
Jackson Merrill Home Run
On any given night, the Padres can turn to a number of hitters in their lineup. Tonight, we have Jackson Merrill earmarked as the offensive catalyst for the Friars.
Merrill has consistently delivered recently; however, he’s coming up short in the power category. The Padres’ center fielder has hits in seven straight games but hasn’t produced an extra-base hit in any of his last four. Moreover, he has just two home runs since May 27.
While those are concerning trends, Merrill’s analytics profile offers a very different perspective on his presumptive success. The 22-year-old continues to rank as an elite power bat. His .496 expected slugging percentage puts him in the 80th percentile of MLB hitters. Further, his 41% launch angle sweet spot contact rating puts him among the top 6% of batters in the big leagues.
As it stands, Merrill is nearly 100 points below his expected slugging percentage, pointing toward inevitable growth. At the current betting prices, we see a substantive edge in backing him to send one out versus the Mets.
Add this parlay to your bet slip with one click!
Jake Cronenworth to Record 2+ Hits+Runs+RBIs
We are rounding out our Same Game Parlay with our preferred Jake Cronenworth prop. The Padres’ second baseman has been swinging a hot bat lately, and he’s projected to continue his assault on Monday.
Cronenworth is riding a more modest three-game hitting streak into the series opener. Across that stretch, he’s totaled four hits, three runs, and an RBI. Additionally, he’s eclipsed two hits+runs+RBIs in each of his last two outings.
More fundamentally, the left-handed batting Cronenworth has a significant advantage over right-hander Frankie Montas. Cronenworth’s best metrics come off of fastballs, and Montas throws a four-seamer, sinker, splitter, and a cutter. That plays into Cronenworth’s strengths as a hitter and sets him up to continue his hot streak.
The plus-money offering is too good to pass up. Cronenworth has been performing of late, and he has an implicit advantage versus Frankie Montas. Backing him to record two or more hits+runs+RBIs is a no-brainer.
Pictured: Dylan Cease
Photo credit: Getty Images
