Same game parlays are one of the most entertaining ways to bet. It allows you to place multiple wagers over the same contest, giving you more upside than a traditional wager without having to sweat out multiple games.
It also allows you to build some correlation into your parlays. That correlation will be factored in by the sportsbooks, but that still creates an opportunity for bettors. You can build out bet slips where if one leg hits, it makes it more likely that the others will hit as well.
Let’s dive into my favorite same game parlay for Thursday’s MLB slate, featuring the Seattle Mariners and the Los Angeles Angels.
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Los Angeles Angels ML (-144) vs. Seattle Mariners
The Angels are coming off being swept in a three-game series vs. the Mets, and they’ll have a quick turnaround for Thursday’s contest vs. the Mariners. Flying back across the country and playing the next night is far from ideal, but at least Wednesday’s contest was a day game.
That said, that’s the only real negative against Los Angeles. From a pitching standpoint, they’ll have a significant advantage on Tuesday. They’ll send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound, while the Mariners will counter with Logan Evans.
Kikuchi was an All-Star this season, and he owns a 3.13 ERA. His advanced metrics aren’t quite as impressive, but he still gives them a solid advantage over Evans. Evans has struggled to a 5.51 xERA in 10 starts with the Mariners, and he grades out as a below-average starter in every metric of note. Strikeout rate? 14th percentile. Barrel rate? 15th percentile. Even his groundball rate and fastball velocity are subpar, so he has literally nothing to hang his hat on.
Additionally, Kikuchi pitching from the left side should benefit the Angels. Seattle’s offense has been one of the best in baseball against righties this season, posting a 115 wRC+. They dip to just 106 against southpaws, which is comparable to the Angels’ mark against righties. It makes the offensive battle look like a draw, which further highlights the pitching gap.
Ultimately, Seattle feels overvalued in this spot. They got off to a strong start this season, but they’ve been a .500 squad since May 1st. The Angels have a better record over that period, the advantage on the bump, and are playing at home.
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Angels Over 5.5 Runs
While the Angels will have arguably their best pitcher on the mound, they’re still probably going to need to do some damage with their bats. That’s something they’re more than capable of. They’re fourth in the league in homers per game, and they have a host of different batters throughout their lineup who are capable of doing damage.
That hasn’t materialized in consistent scoring this season – they’re 15th in runs per game – but that shouldn’t be a huge issue vs. Evans. He has been nothing short of one of the worst starters in baseball this season, and the team has allowed at least six runs in six of his 10 outings. That includes three of his past four, including two straight. Ultimately, it’s a great spot for them to do some damage after a disappointing showing in New York.
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Mike Trout 1+ Home Run
If the Angels are going to get to 6+ runs, there’s a good chance that they’re going to hit a few long balls. It’s where the vast majority of their offensive production has come from this season, with six different players in their lineup boasting at least 12 homers.
Trout is still their most likely option to go deep. While his numbers are slightly down this season, his advanced metrics remain elite. That’s particularly true from a power standpoint. His .543 xSLG puts him in the 92nd percentile, as does his 15.8% barrel rate.
Trout went deep vs. the Mets on Wednesday, and he’s feasted on right-handed pitchers all year. 16 of his 18 homers have come in that split, and he sports a .248 ISO in those matchups. That figure increases to .355 when facing a righty at home, so Trout stands out as a solid value to homer for the second straight contest.
Pictured: Mike Trout
Photo credit: Imagn
