We had our first ticket punched to the NBA Finals on Wednesday, and we could have the Pacers follow suit on Thursday. They currently hold a 3-1 series lead over the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, with Game 5 taking place Thursday at 8 p.m. ET. However, the Knicks will have the benefit of home court advantage, and they’re currently listed as four-point favorites. The total on the contest sits at 223.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Tyrese Haliburton completed his magnum opus in Game 4. He played nearly a perfect game, racking up 32 points, 12 rebounds, 15 assists, and four steals with zero turnovers, resulting in 84.5 DraftKings points.
It was his best showing of the postseason by a wide margin, but Haliburton has provided excellent value all playoffs. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but two games, and they were two games where he played reduced minutes vs. the Cavaliers. He’s gone for at least 47.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five outings, and he’s had at least 55.5 DraftKings points in three of them. Ultimately, no one in this series has average more fantasy points per minute.
However, Haliburton’s big game has vaulted him all the way to $11,400, making him the most expensive player in this matchup. That could be a mistake. He ranks second in both median and ceiling projection, and he’s No. 4 in projected Plus/Minus. Haliburton is clearly still a viable target, but he’s a bit less appealing than usual at an elevated price tag.
Jalen Brunson could be the superior stud option. He remains the clear No. 1 scoring threat in this series after another 31-point outing in Game 4. He’s posted a massive 37.0% usage rate in this series, and no other player is above 27.8%. That’s a pretty sizable differential.
Brunson has scored at least 46.5 DraftKings points in three of four games in this series, and he’s put together some huge showings during the postseason. He has six games with at least 54.25 DraftKings points, including in Game 2 of this series.
Brunson should also benefit from the situation. Not only are the Knicks home favorites, giving them a slight edge in implied team total, but the Knicks are the team facing elimination. Tom Thibodeau hasn’t pushed his starters nearly as hard as usual in this series, but it’s a spot where Brunson could easily eclipse 40 minutes.
Ultimately, he gets the edge in both median and ceiling projection over Haliburton, despite checking in at a slightly cheaper price tag.
Karl-Anthony Towns rounds out the stud trio, but he’s the toughest to get excited about. Towns has been good but not great in this series. He had 60.0 DraftKings points back in Game 1, but he’s yet to crack 45 DraftKings points since then. His minutes have also been a bit inconsistent, with Towns logging just 27.7 minutes in Game 2 and 33.0 minutes in Game 3.
Towns did bounce back with closer to 37 minutes in Game 4, but he’s projected for just 35 minutes on Thursday. Towns has also been the worst producer in the stud tier on a per-minute basis during the playoffs, which is not an ideal combination.
Of course, Towns is available at a slight discount compared to Haliburton and Brunson, but it’s not a big enough savings to get excited about.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
Pascal Siakam has been extremely productive for the Pacers. He was the hero for the squad in Game 2, racking up 39 points and carrying their offense during the first quarter. He ultimately finished with 52.75 DraftKings points in that outing, which was his top mark of the postseason. Siakam predictably regressed in Game 3, finishing with just 25.0 DraftKings points, but he bounced back with a strong showing in Game 4. He had another 30 points in that outing, finishing with 44.25 DraftKings points.
Siakam has now posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games, including three games with at least 43.5 DraftKings points. Unfortunately, his price tag has skyrocketed since then. He’s been priced as low as $7,800 during that stretch, but he checks in at $9,000 for Game 5 vs. the Knicks. That’s simply not a very appealing price tag, giving him one of the worst projected Plus/Minus marks in this price range.
OG Anunoby is next on the pricing spectrum. He’s been up and down during the playoffs, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four games vs. the Pacers. That includes 38.0 DraftKings points in Game 4, which was his top mark of the series.
Anunoby is currently projected for 39 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark for all players in this contest. It goes without saying that all that playing time is undoubtedly a good thing. Anunoby has been projected for at least 37 minutes in 48 games with the Knicks, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.11 (per the Trends tool). That’s far from an elite figure, but it’s enough to put him in play at $8,200.
Myles Turner was a big part of the Pacers’ upset over the Cavaliers in the last round, but he simply hasn’t been as important in this series. He’s played at least 31.3 minutes in all four contests, but he’s scored 34.5 DraftKings points or fewer in each of them. He’s gone for 27.25 DraftKings points or fewer in three of those outings, including just 22.75 DraftKings points in Game 4.
Despite the downturn in production, Turner’s price tag has actually increased during this series. He’s at $8,000 for Game 5, and that’s not a particularly appealing figure.
Mikal Bridges checks a lot of the same boxes as Anunoby. His offensive workload can vary a bit from game to game, but he should see plenty of minutes. He’s currently projected for 38 minutes in Game 5, making him a decent buy-low option. He’s managed just 23.0 and 24.25 DraftKings points in his past two games, but he had at least 35.25 in his previous three outings. His ownership could also be a bit down after back-to-back clunkers.
Josh Hart has come off the bench for each of the Knicks’ past two outings, but he’s still seen a solid handful of minutes. He’s played at least 34 minutes in both contests, and he turned in a double-double in Game 4.
Unfortunately, it hasn’t been enough for him to return value. He’s not doing nearly enough scoring, taking five shots or fewer in each of his past three games.
The good news is that Hart’s price tag has at least started to come back to reality. He’s down to $7,600 for Game 5 after checking in at $8,600 for Game 3. His lack of scoring isn’t ideal, but he has some buy-low potential at his current figure.
Mitchell Robinson is the guy who replaced Hart in the starting lineup. He’s been extremely impactful for the Knicks in limited minutes all postseason, but that hasn’t necessarily translated into fantasy production. He’s managed just 18.5 and 18.25 DraftKings points in his two starts, and his playing time plummeted to less than 19 minutes in Game 4. We have him projected for 24 minutes in Game 5, and that’s probably not enough for him to pay off his $5,400 salary.
Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith round out this price range, and they’ve both been outstanding for the Pacers during the playoffs. However, Nembhard’s production has dropped off a bit of late, going for 25.5 DraftKings points or fewer in all four games vs. the Knicks. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past three, and he had his worst showing of the postseason with just 12.0 DraftKings points in Game 4.
Nesmith stands out as the superior option at the moment. He’s not expected to see quite as much playing time as Nembhard, but he’s a bit cheaper and has been more productive on a per-minute basis. He’s also displayed the higher ceiling, going for at least 38.25 DraftKings points five times during the playoffs.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- T.J. McConnell ($4,400): McConnell is coming off his worst game of the series in Game 4, which was ironically the game where he played the most minutes. He saw more than 18.5 minutes after racking up 15.5 or fewer in each of the first three outings. If he continues to play a bit more, it will undoubtedly lead to bigger fantasy performances. McConnell is a phenomenal producer on a per-minute basis, so more minutes is an excellent development for his fantasy prospects.
- Obi Toppin ($4,000): Toppin has played well in limited minutes against his former team. Like McConnell, he’s historically been an excellent producer on a per-minute basis when on the court. He’s played at least 17.7 minutes in three of four games in this series, and he should see a comparable workload in Game 5. That keeps him well on the fantasy radar.
- Bennedict Mathurin ($3,600): Mathurin was basically a zero for the Pacers in the first three games vs. the Knicks, but he broke out with 25.5 DraftKings points in 12.5 minutes in Game 4. He had 20 points and a 43.7% usage rate in that outing, so he has some upside for his price tag. That said, it’s tough to envision a repeat performance in Game 5.
- Miles McBride ($2,800): McBride’s playing time has been slashed over the past two games, logging just 15 minutes in Game 3 and 14.5 minutes in Game 4. It’s possible he sees a slight bump in Game 5, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
- Ben Sheppard ($2,400): Sheppard has seen a bit more playing time as this series has progressed, logging at least 12.7 minutes in each of the past three games. He had 10.25 DraftKings points in Game 3, but he came back to reality with 5.75 DraftKings points in Game 4. Now that he’s up to $2,400, he doesn’t offer the same value.
- Landry Shamet ($2,000): The Knicks are looking for ways to keep up with the Pacers offensively, and one of their “answers” has been to play Shamet a bit more. He’s logged 11.2 minutes or more in back-to-back games, though it hasn’t really led to much production.
- Delon Wright ($1,600): Wright has also seen some opportunities for the Knicks recently, and he had 8.5 DraftKings points in Game 4.
- Tony Bradley ($1,000): Bradley has handled some of the backup center responsibilities in this series. He played just under 15 minutes in Game 3 and 10 minutes in Game 4, so he’s the most appealing min-priced option on this slate.
Pictured: Jalen Brunson
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
