Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.
However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?
In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options
Saquon Barkley ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
Barkley’s regular season will ultimately be viewed as a disappointment. He didn’t come anywhere close to replicating last year’s numbers, despite the fact that he stayed relatively healthy. He was far less efficient, plummeting from 5.8 yards per carry to 4.1, while he scored six fewer touchdowns. Add it all up, and his 232.3 PPR points were well behind his 355.3 mark last year.
That said, Barkley certainly didn’t have a bad season. He still finished with 1,140 rushing yards, more than 1,400 scrimmage yards, and nine total scores. He also ended the regular season on a solid note, racking up 24.2, 17.2, and 21.2 DraftKings points in three of his final four games.
Barkley still has one of the most desirable workloads at the position. He handled 78% of the team’s snaps, 70% of their carries, and 12% of their targets this season. The only area where he struggles is around the goal line, where Jalen Hurts is a major threat to steal carries.
Barkley gets one of the best matchups in the first round of the playoffs. The 49ers have been hit hard by injuries this season, losing Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and a host of additional options. As a result, they’ve been shredded by opposing offenses down the stretch. From Week 10 on, they were merely 22nd in rush defense EPA.
The Eagles are also up to five-point home favorites in this contest, which sets up a favorable potential game script. Barkley ranks first at the position in projected Plus/Minus, making him the top overall option.
Kyren Williams ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
No team stands out on opening weekend more than the Rams. They’re the biggest favorites of the week, and they have the top implied team total as well. They’re currently implied for 28.25 points, despite being on the road in Carolina.
Williams hasn’t had as large a share of the backfield this year as he’s had in prior seasons. Blake Corum has siphoned off a decent chunk of touches, but Williams still stands out as the top dog. He’s handled 60% of the carries this season, including the majority of the long-yardage and short-yardage opportunities.
The split hasn’t impacted Williams’ ability to score fantasy points too much. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past 10 games. He hasn’t displayed the largest ceiling over that time frame, but he still has more than 20 DraftKings points in three of them.
Running backs tend to excel as big favorites, and Williams is no exception. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.25 in 10 career games as a favorite of at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool).
Williams also stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $6,400, resulting in a 96% Bargain Rating. Only Barkley has a better projected Plus/Minus on that site, making him a solid option at RB2.
Woody Marks ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Marks has solidified his status as the Texans’ top running back down the stretch. He handled 64% of the team’s snaps and 63% of their carries from Week 10 through Week 17, and that number would be even higher if not for an injury he sustained vs. the Cardinals. He had just a 19% snap share and 24% carry share in that contest, so his numbers in the games where he stayed healthy were significantly higher.
Unlike the first two options mentioned, Marks isn’t in an ideal matchup this weekend. He’s taking on the Steelers, and while his team is a slight favorite, it’s expected to be one of the lowest-scoring games of the week. The total currently sits at 38.0 points, and the Texans have the fourth-lowest implied team total overall.
Pittsburgh has also been a bit of a pass-funnel defense this season. They’ve allowed fantasy points in bunches to quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends, but they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. Marks owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.9 on DraftKings, which is worse only than the Patriots’ RB tandem (-3.1).
Still, Marks stands out as too cheap for his projected volume. He’s priced in the same range as guys who are committee backs, while Marks has the potential to be a true bell-cow for the Texans. He’s also displayed some chops as a pass-catcher, though we haven’t seen much of that in recent weeks.
Marks ranks third at the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s a nice way to save a bit of salary.
Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Options
D’Andre Swift ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
The Bears are listed as small home underdogs vs. the Packers in a game that feels like a true coin flip. The teams split their two regular-season meetings this season, with both teams winning at home.
Chicago ran the ball extremely well this season, particularly after their Week 5 bye. They were 22nd in Dropback Over Expectation from that point on, so they leaned on their run game whenever possible.
Expect that to be a focal point for the team on Saturday. With the Packers’ defense down Micah Parsons, they could be vulnerable in that department. They were absolutely gashed by Derrick Henry and the Ravens on the ground in Week 17, surrendering more than 300 total rushing yards.
Swift will have to split the carries with Kyle Monangai in this contest, but he still profiles as the team’s lead back. He averaged 5.4 yards per attempt following the team’s bye week, so he doesn’t need a full workload to potentially do damage in this matchup.
Swift ranks second at the position in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and he has the fourth-highest optimal lineup rate in Sim Labs.
Josh Jacobs ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
On the other side of that matchup, Jacobs is one of the biggest wild cards this weekend. When he’s healthy, we know what he’s capable of. He’s one of the most prolific touchdown scorers in football, and he racked up 14 touchdowns in his first 13 games this season.
However, Jacobs appeared to be operating at well below 100% down the stretch. He had just 16 total carries over his final two games, and he saw fewer snaps and carries than Emanuel Wilson. Jacobs did get the week off last Sunday, so hopefully, that means he’s ready to go in the first round of the playoffs.
It makes Jacobs a high-risk, high-reward tournament option. If he returns to being the Packers’ bell-cow back, he’s too cheap across the industry. He’s been priced as high as $9,400 on FanDuel and $7,800 on DraftKings this season.
His upside is reflected in Sim Labs. Jacobs ranks second in optimal lineup rate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and his optimal rate checks in well above his projected ownership. That makes him an ideal tournament option, especially in a game where the Packers are favored.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)
While Barkley might be the best pure value among the top running backs, there’s no denying McCaffrey’s superior ceiling. He’s been the top producer at the position this season, leading all running backs with an average of 24.5 PPR points per game.
McCaffrey’s value stems primarily from his work as a pass-catcher. He wasn’t particularly efficient on the ground this season, averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt, but he made up for it with a massive 23% target share. That was easily the best mark among running backs, and his 102 receptions ranked sixth overall this season. Only Puka Nacua, Trey McBride, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Amon-Ra St. Brown had more, and those might be the five best pass-catchers in fantasy.
McCaffrey’s work as a receiver also makes him less prone to a poor game script than other running backs. If anything, the 49ers being listed as underdogs might help his fantasy prospects. Playing from behind means more pass-catching opportunities, and McCaffrey has been far more productive as a receiver than a runner.
That said, it isn’t all sunshine and rainbows for McCaffrey this week. He’ll have to deal with a brutal matchup in Philly vs. the Eagles. They haven’t been quite as dominant defensively this season as in previous years, but the 49ers still have the third-lowest implied team total of the week. Good defenses are still capable of slowing down McCaffrey, who finished with just 11.7 DraftKings points in the regular-season finale vs. the Seahawks. McCaffrey still stands out as one of the strongest tournament options of the week, but he is not without downside.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside
Kenneth Gainwell ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
McCaffrey is the gold standard for receiving production at running back, but Gainwell isn’t too far behind. He was fifth at the position in target share for the year, and his role only grew as the season progressed. He racked up at least seven targets in four of his final five games, including eight catches in the Steelers’ regular-season finale. That was essentially a playoff game for Pittsburgh, and he was on the field for 50 of the team’s 75 offensive snaps.
Gainwell also punched in a short rushing touchdown, giving him some upside in that department as well. He’s had 49% of the short-yardage opportunities for the Steelers this season, so while he’s in a timeshare with Jaylen Warren, he has the clear edge in high-value touches.
Gainwell stands out as one of the best contrarian targets on the six-game slate. He has the fourth-largest differential between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership on DraftKings, trailing only Jacobs, Barkley, and McCaffrey. His pass-catching prowess isn’t quite as valuable on FanDuel, but he’s priced at a massive discount on that site: his 96% Bargain Rating is tied for the third-best mark at the position.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
The Patriots are another team that employs a committee in their backfield, with Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson splitting the opportunities. While Henderson is the more explosive player – and the player with more long-term potential – Stevenson appears to be the preferred option for the time being.
After returning from a one-game absence in Week 14, Stevenson ended the season on a heater. He scored 10.7, 15.8, 27.2, and 35.3 PPR points in his final four outings. He posted a 12% target share over that time frame, and he handled 77% of the short-yardage snaps. Henderson had the clear edge from a carry standpoint, but Stevenson got most of the most valuable opportunities.
Stevenson is another player who is projected for minimal ownership across the industry, but he clearly has some upside: he was the top-scoring running back in fantasy in Week 18.
Blake Corum ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
With the Rams listed as massive favorites, both of their RBs are in play on Sunday. Williams has had a slight edge in opportunities, but both guys could see plenty of opportunities if they build a big lead.
Corum has delivered solid value down the stretch, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six games. He scored a touchdown in all four of those outings, and he had 29.1 DraftKings points against the Cardinals. The best way to attack the Panthers has been on the ground this season, with Carolina allowing the ninth-most PPR points per game to the position.
Corum is most appealing on the two-game Saturday slate, but he could still provide some value for the weekend contests.
Omarion Hampton ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Hampton is not a lock to suit up Sunday vs. the Patriots. He’s been a DNP on both Wednesday and Thursday, so he likely needs to get on the field on Friday to have a chance to play. He sat out in Week 18, so hopefully, that’s enough to at least get him on the field.
Before getting the week off, Hampton had resumed his role as the Chargers’ No. 1 RB. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his final four games, and he handled 83% of the snaps and 82% of the carries in their Week 17 contest. He also posted a 26% target share in that outing, and he finished with 20.0 DraftKings points.
That gives him some bell-cow potential against the Patriots. He’s another high-risk, high-reward option, but there’s no denying his talent. The first-round pick has put together some solid games when he’s been on the field this season, and his price tag is pretty reasonable across the industry.
Pictured: Saquon Barkley
Photo Credit: Imagn
