Wild Card Weekend NFL DFS QB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

The quarterback position is one of the most flexible in NFL DFS. You can go in a variety of different ways. Do you pay up for one of the top studs or try to save some money with a value option? Do you eat the chalk or look for a low-owned option with upside? There’s no 100% one-size-fits-all answer, so each slate and contest type is going to require thought and consideration.

In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Options

Josh Allen ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)

Is this finally the year that Allen gets the playoff monkey off his back? His road to the Super Bowl has never looked clearer. He won’t have to deal with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Joe Burrow in the playoffs this season, with a bunch of inexperienced playoff starters in his way instead.

The Bills have some issues as a team, but Allen has provided his usual dominance at quarterback this season. He was the top scorer at the position in terms of fantasy points per game, and no one in football is capable of matching his upside. He had two games with more than 40 DraftKings points this season, and he had another with 37.84. Unsurprisingly, Allen owns the top ceiling in our projections for Wild Card Weekend.

Allen will have to navigate a tough matchup in the first round. The Jaguars enter the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak, and they’re first in defensive EPA over that time frame. They’re fifth in defensive EPA overall, giving Allen a -7.9 Opponent Plus/Minus.

However, this is expected to be one of the best games of the week for fantasy purposes. The total currently sits at 51.5 points, with the Bills listed as 1.5-point road favorites. It gives them the second-highest implied team total of the week.

Allen has also historically done some of his best work late in the season. He had 21.38, 19.08, and 25.48 DraftKings points in three playoff games last year. He had 30.64 and 33.52 the year prior and 18.2 and 28.08 in 2023.

Allen leads the position in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and it should shock no one if he starts the postseason with a big performance.

Drake Maye ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

Maye gets the slight edge over Allen on FanDuel. He was just behind the Bills’ QB in terms of fantasy points per game for the year, and he’s available at a slight discount. That’s enough to push him ahead in terms of projected FanDuel Plus/Minus.

Maye will have the benefit of playing at home in the Wild Card Round, and he’s been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football this season. He leads the league in a variety of categories, including completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt, QBR, and quarterback rating.

He’s not quite as dangerous as Allen with his legs, but he’s still a threat in that department. He averaged 26.5 rushing yards per game while punching in four touchdowns during the regular season.

Maye also finished the regular season strong, scoring at least 20.48 DraftKings points in four of his final five games. The lone exception was last week vs. the Dolphins in a game where he attempted just 18 passes.

Maye will have to face a tough Chargers defense on Sunday, but the Patriots are still tied for the third-highest implied team total of the week. He’s also expected to command far less ownership than Allen, making him an interesting pivot.

Now available: our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Top NFL DFS Tournament Options

Matthew Stafford ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)

Stafford stands out as the clear No. 1 QB on the Saturday slate. He turned in an outstanding season, becoming just the fifth QB in NFL history with 40+ touchdown passes and fewer than 10 interceptions in the same season. It could result in the first MVP award of his career.

Stafford was tied with Maye in terms of fantasy points per game, despite bringing virtually zero rushing upside to the table. He more than makes up for it with his work with his arm, ranking first in the league in both passing touchdowns and passing yards per game.

Stafford and the Rams are expected to do plenty of scoring in the first round of the playoffs. They’re listed as 10.5-point road favorites over the Panthers, giving them the top implied team total of the weekend. Carolina did manage to knock off the Rams earlier this season – limiting Stafford to 14.62 DraftKings points in the process – and they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. While it’s far from an ideal matchup, Stafford still has the third-highest ceiling projection overall, and he has the top optimal rate at the position for Saturday’s slate in Sim Labs.

Trevor Lawrence ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)

Lawrence will be opposing Allen in Jacksonville in what could be the game of the week. While Jacksonville’s offense has lagged behind its defense for most of the season, it ended the year on a major high note. Lawrence posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games, and he had at least 21.14 DraftKings points in six of them.

During that stretch, Lawrence has thrown for 18 touchdowns while adding four on the ground. He has always been a sneaky source of rushing production, and he punched in a career-best nine rushing scores this year. He also averaged 21.1 yards per game, which was the second-highest mark of his career.

Lawrence has also been at his best when playing at home this season. He’s averaged 21.24 DraftKings points across his nine home starts, good for an average Plus/Minus of +3.04 (per the Trends tool). He trails only Allen in terms of projected DraftKings Plus/Minus this weekend, while he’s fourth at the position on FanDuel.

Jalen Hurts ($6,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)

Hurts is one of the biggest wild cards in the Wild Card Round. The Eagles offense has been a disaster at times this season. They’ve somehow won two games where they’ve failed to complete a pass in the second half. Hurts dipped to 19.1 fantasy points per game this season after averaging 21.3, 21.9, and 25.6 across the previous three seasons.

Still, we know what Hurts is capable of. He has some of the best touchdown upside at the position thanks to the tush push, and he’s also put together some big playoff performances in the past. He had 33.44 and 29.04 DraftKings points in his final two playoff games last year.

Maybe he’s not the same player at this point, but there is still some potential upside in an elite matchup vs. the 49ers. Their defense has been hit hard by injuries this season, giving Hurts one of the most favorable matchups of the week. They’re 25th in pass defense EPA for the year, which is the worst mark among the remaining playoff squads.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Options With Upside

Justin Herbert ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)

Herbert could be a bit undervalued on Sunday’s slate. His optimal lineup rate is checking in ahead of his projected ownership in Sim Labs, and he ranks third at the position in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.

Herbert will have to go on the road on the East Coast, and he has been far from at his best recently. He did go off for 33.2 DraftKings points in an elite matchup vs. the Cowboys, but that was his only game with a positive Plus/Minus in his past seven starts. He had less than 15 DraftKings points in five of them, so he has a pretty low floor vs. New England.

However, he also has some upside. He’s the rare quarterback who has historically performed better as an underdog than a favorite, averaging roughly an additional fantasy point per game in that split. The Chargers like to lean on their run game when they can, but they might not have that luxury as underdogs. Hopefully, getting to rest during the Chargers’ final regular-season contest will help him bounce back.

Caleb Williams ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)

The game between the Bears and Packers stands out as one of the biggest toss-ups of the week. The Bears are listed as slight underdogs in this matchup, but Williams is arguably the better of the two quarterback targets for fantasy purposes. He has slightly higher projections in our NFL Models, albeit at a slightly more expensive price tag.

The biggest difference between Williams and Jordan Love is that Williams uses his legs more effectively. Williams has averaged 22.8 rushing yards per game with four touchdowns, while Love is at 13.3 and zero, respectively. As a result, Williams averaged 19.0 fantasy points per game, compared to just 17.0 for Love.

The matchup could also be more favorable than it appears on paper. The Packers’ defense suffered a huge blow with the Micah Parsons injury, and they allowed 41 points to the Ravens two games ago. That game was played in Green Bay, so it’s possible that the Bears’ offense can have a similar output. Chicago has been an excellent offensive team under new head coach Ben Johnson, ranking ninth in yards, sixth in points, and eighth in EPA per play.

Jordan Love ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

While Williams has the edge in terms of raw projections, Love has the slightest of edges in terms of projected Plus/Minus. He’s also showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a slightly higher frequency. Both guys stand out as undervalued pivots off the much chalkier Stafford, and deciding between the two appears to be a coin flip.

Love hasn’t suited up in the team’s past two games after suffering a concussion in Week 16. It’s possible that he’s a bit rusty, but Love was playing extremely well before getting injured. He racked up 25.76 DraftKings points against the Lions and 20.26 in his first matchup vs. the Bears before stumbling to 15.94 against a tough Broncos’ defense.

Even with the Packers defense reeling, Love still might have the superior matchup. The Bears have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. He’s also priced at a nice discount on DraftKings, where his $5,300 salary comes with a 91% Bargain Rating.

Add in the fact that the Packers are favorites – and have attracted some sharp betting action – and Love could end up being the preferred Stafford pivot.

Pictured: Drake Maye
Photo Credit: Imagn Images